Seth Rich/JFK Mortality Probability
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201614
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1418John JonesSUICIDE?H
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SETH RICH/JFK Mortality Probability
2511M. RatnerCANCER
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3622John AsheACCIDENT?H
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U.S. National Center for Health Statistics
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html
DC Homicide rate4623Mike FlynnHEART
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DC Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.
681,170Population5710Seth RichHOMICIDEH
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DC crime rate data
https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
135Homicides6725Joe MontanoHEART
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0.0002DC Rate7801Victor ThornSUICIDE?H
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1986-2016 1986-2016 rateDNC/WKILEAKS8802
Shawn Lucas
HOMICIDEH
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Homicide rateHomicide rateCOD Weighted rateDC homicide rateDC homicide rateDC homicide rateDC homicide rate91022
G. MacFayden
CANCER
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RMortality rate0.000070.000070.00080.00020.00020.00020.00005101113
Monica Petersen
HOMICIDEH
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NUniverse2000020000100010005000100004000011May 2017
Beranton Whisenant
HOMICIDEH
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nDeaths801009666812July
Klaus Eberwein
HOMICIDEH
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TYears30300.500.100.100.100.08313July
Peter Smith
HOMICIDEH
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E= N*R*T Expected42.042.00.390.020.100.190.1714JulyJoseph RagoHOMICIDEH
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15AugKurt SmolekHOMICIDEH
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Probability1.19E-072.16E-144.05E-106.91E-141.01E-095.96E-081.23E-1116Nov
Steve Mostyn
HOMICIDEH
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One in8,383,19546,190,765,408,9282,467,993,58414,481,027,740,741989,225,32116,780,90581,035,701,47617Dec
Dr. Dean Lorich
SUICIDE?H
https://www.intellihub.com/surgeon-who-exposed-clinton-foundation-corruption-in-haiti-found-dead-in-apartment-with-stab-wound-to-the-chest/
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18Jan 2018James DolanSUICIDE?H
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POISSON(x, mean, cumulative)
If cumulative is TRUE then POISSON returns the probability of x or fewer events, otherwise the probability of exactly x events.
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JFK WITNESS DEATHS https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=3
UNNATURAL DEATHS
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=3
Probability at least n people in a group of N would die unnaturally in T years...
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Note: In 1964-78, 78 of 122 suspicious deaths were officially ruled unnatural among an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesess.UnnaturalNTR
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Of the 78, 34 were ruled homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown.40,0001.750.00005Prob: 1 in
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Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were actually homicides.0.00038accident02,632
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Of the 44 "natural" deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were likely homicides based on the number of expected deaths. 0.00012suicide08,333
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Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths - compared to the 34 officially ruled.180.00005homicide0.000920,000
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SIMKIN JFK INDEX180.00005
wtd average
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=81
SIMKIN JFK INDEX
Expected E = N*R*T
3.500
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http://spartacus-educational.com/JFKindex.htm
OfficialEstimatedEstimatedEstimatedProb1 in
Calc function
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1963-1978JFK CalcHomicidesHomicidesHomicidesHomicidesAt least n =183.58E-0827,911,416
P=1- poisson(n-1,E, true)
1 in
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NUniverse15001500100006560.000051.75Exactly n=182.93E-0834,130,835
P=poisson(n,E, false)
4.31E-09232,278,554
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RMortality rate0.000080.000080.000080.0000820000
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nHomicides346090440123456789
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TYears1515151517.4%30.4%26.6%15.5%6.8%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%
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E= N*R*T Expected1.81.812.00.8
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Probability2.68E-314.12E-685.53E-474.58E-60
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0.25Years
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0.0002Rate
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Homicides10,00020,00030,00040,000
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10,00020,00030,00040,000
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50.02%0.31%1.41%3.61%
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60.00%0.05%0.35%1.20%
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70.00%0.01%0.08%0.34%
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80.00%0.00%0.01%0.09%
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90.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%
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Homicide rate0.00005Time (years):1.750
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1 in20,000
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Probability of at least n Homicides in a Group of N in 21 months
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n10,00020,00030,00040,00050,000100,000
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80.00%0.05%0.56%2.67%7.66%64.60%
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100.00%0.00%0.04%0.33%1.44%37.97%
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120.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.19%17.34%
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140.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%6.20%
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160.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.76%
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Probability =1 in
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16391,617,358,901,78213,968,721,51148,139,8731,088,86768,93957
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POISSON(x, mean, cumulative)
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x - The input to the Poisson distribution function.
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mean - The mean (mu) of the Poisson distribution function.
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cumulative - Whether to use the Poisson cumulative distribution function rather than the distribution function..
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Notes
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The Poisson distribution function is typically used to calculate the number of 'arrivals' or 'events' over a period of time, such as the number of network packets or login attempts given some mean.
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If cumulative is TRUE then POISSON returns the probability of x or fewer events, otherwise the probability of exactly x events.
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Binomial Distribution
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Prob of n named individuals in random a group of
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20,00020,000,0002,000,000
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nProb exact n1 inProb at least n
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036.79%2.7236.79%
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136.79%2.7263.21%
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218.39%526.42%
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36.13%168.03%
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41.53%651.90%
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50.31%3260.37%
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60.05%1,9580.06%
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70.01%13,7100.01%
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89.11E-06109,7141.02E-05
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91.01E-06987,7681.13E-06
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