Seth Rich DNC /Wikileaks Mortality Probability

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J
1
2
3						Seth Rich DNC /Wikileaks Mortality Probability
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5		U.S. National Center for Health Statistics		http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html			DC Pop	Homicides	Homicide Rate	1 in
6		DC Wikipedia		https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.			711,000	147	0.00021	4837
7		DC crime rate data		https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
8
9		Date	Witness	Cause	Connection
10	1	Aptil 2016	John Jones	SUICIDE	Wikileaks
11	2	511	M. Ratner	CANCER	Wikileaks
12	3	622	John Ashe	ACCIDENT	Foundation
13	4	623	Mike Flynn	HEART	DNC
14	5	710	Seth Rich	HOMICIDE	DNC
15	6	725	Joe Montano	HEART	DNC
16	7	801	Victor Thorn	SUICIDE	Other
17	8	802	Shawn Lucas	HOMICIDE	Wikileaks
18	9	1022	G. MacFayden	CANCER	Wikileaks
19	10	1113	Monica Petersen	HOMICIDE	Foundation
20	11	May 2017	Beranton Whisenant	HOMICIDE	Foundation
21	12	July	Klaus Eberwein	SUICIDE	Foundation
22	13	July	Peter Smith	HOMICIDE	Wikileaks
23	14	July	Joseph Rago	HOMICIDE	Wikileaks
24	15	Aug	Kurt Smolek	HOMICIDE	Other
25	16	Nov	Steve Mostyn	HOMICIDE	Other
26	17	Dec	Dr. Dean Lorich	SUICIDE	Foundation
27	18	Dec	Barry Sherman	HOMICIDE	Foundation
28	19	Dec	Honey Sherman	HOMICIDE	Foundation
29	20	Jan 2018	James Dolan	SUICIDE	Wikileaks
30	21	Aug	Jen Moore	HOMICIDE	Other
31	22	July 2019	Salvadore Cincinelli	SUICIDE	Foundation
32
33		T years	N
34		2.333	10,000
35		n	R	n*R
36	accident		0.00038	0.00000
37	suicide		0.00012	0.00000
38	homicide	17	0.00006	0.00102
39	Weighted R	17	0.00006	0.00102
40	Expected = NRT =		1.40
41		Probability =	2.11E-13
42
43	R	0.00006
44	Time (years):	2.333	Homicides
45		Probability of at least n homicides in a Group of N
46	n	10,000	20,000	30,000	40,000	50,000	60,000	1 in
47	8	1.1E-04	8.1E-03	6.4E-02	2.0E-01	4.0E-01	6.0E-01	2
48	11	2.8E-07	1.6E-04	4.1E-03	2.8E-02	9.9E-02	2.3E-01	4
49	14	3.5E-10	1.6E-06	1.3E-04	2.0E-03	1.3E-02	4.8E-02	21
50	17	2.3E-13	8.1E-09	2.2E-06	7.8E-05	9.6E-04	5.9E-03	169
51	21	5.65E-18	3.3E-12	4.4E-09	5.0E-07	1.4E-05	1.8E-04	5,547
52	17 (1 in	4,363,953,127,297	123,800,780	463,931	12,773	1,044	169
53
54
55	N	10,000
56	Rate	0.00006	0.00009	0.00012	0.00015	0.00018	0.00021	1 in
57	n			Probability of n innatural deaths in a Group of N
58	8	9.03E-05	1.15E-03	5.70E-03	1.69E-02	3.60E-02	6.14E-02	16
59	11	2.50E-07	1.07E-05	1.26E-04	7.30E-04	2.69E-03	7.29E-03	137
60	14	3.14E-10	4.56E-08	1.27E-06	1.43E-05	9.14E-05	3.93E-04	2,545
61	17	2.11E-13	1.03E-10	6.83E-09	1.51E-07	1.66E-06	1.13E-05	88,263
62	18	1.64E-14	1.21E-11	1.06E-09	2.93E-08	3.87E-07	3.08E-06	324,231
63	1 in	60,820,313,264,766	82,872,821,862	940,851,335	34,130,835	2,581,610	324,231
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65
66
67
68	As N increases, then given a constant mortality rate R, the probability of n deaths increases
69	As the average mortality rate R increases, the probability of n deaths increases
70	As n increases, the probability of n deaths decreases
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72
73
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75			1986-2016	1986-2016 rate	DNC/WKILEAKS
76			Homicide rate	Homicide rate	COD Weighted rate	mortality rate	mortality rate	mortality rate	mortality rate
77	R	Mortality rate	0.00007	0.00007	0.00024	0.00006	0.00006	0.00006	0.00006
78	N	Universe	20000	20000	3000	5000	7000	10000	15000
79	n	Deaths	80	100	14	14	14	14	17
80	T	Years	30	30	0.50	2.333	2.333	2.333	2.333
81	E= NRT	Expected	42.0	42.0	0.36	0.70	0.98	1.40	2.10
82
83		Probability	1.19E-07	2.16E-14	1.11E-16	4.05E-14	3.46E-12	3.46E-10	1.17E-10
84		One in	8,383,195	46,190,765,408,928		24,677,258,232,167	288,701,537,060	2,891,642,146	8,566,520,317
85
86	POISSON(x, mean, cumulative)		If cumulative is TRUE then POISSON returns the probability of x or fewer events, otherwise the probability of exactly x events.
87
88	JFK WITNESS DEATHS		https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=3
89	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=3
90	Note: In 1964-78, 78 of 122 suspicious deaths were officially ruled unnatural among an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesess.
91	Of the 78, 34 were ruled homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown.
92	Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were actually homicides.
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94
95
96			2.333	Years
97			0.00006	Rate
98
99		Homicides
100			5,000	10,000	15,000	20,000	25,000