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To be completed by students in HW3
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Office building space conditioning energy use
Students can simulate changes to technologies and fuel shares by changing yellow cell values; students must add missing regions!
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Baseline number of U.S. office buildings by climate region (thousand)
2022202520302035204020452050
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Northeast138138138138138138138
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Midwest265265265265265265265
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South375375375375375375375
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West193193193193193193193
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971971971971971971971
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Sources: US DOE 2018 CBECS projected by AEO 2021
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Baseline total floor area by climate region (million ft2)2022202520302035204020452050
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Northeast3196324433323415348535473605
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Midwest4336437647475125549158536230
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South5718636469757642834290919939
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West3432348435783667374338093871
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1668217467.518631.719848.721060.622300.123645.1
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Sources: US DOE 2018 CBECS projected by AEO 2021
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Baseline average floor area per worker (ft2/worker)2022202520302035204020452050
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United States office buildings508508508508508508508
remains constant
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Sources: US DOE 2018 CBECS
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Baseline total workers (millions)2022202520302035204020452050
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United States office buildings32.834.436.739.141.543.946.5
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Baseline office demand for hot water (gals/worker-year)
2022202520302035204020452050
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Faucet862862862862862862862
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Dishwasher123123123123123123123
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 985 985 985 985 985 985 985
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Baseline office appliance demands2022202220222022202220222022
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Dishwasher (cycles/worker-yr)15151515151515
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Refrigerated volume (cubic feet/worker-yr)2.02.02.02.02.02.02.0
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Baseline appliance pentrations (units/worker)2022202220222022202220222022
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Personal computer (desktop)0.610.610.610.610.610.610.61
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Personal computer (laptop)1.031.031.031.031.031.031.03
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Personal computer monitor0.860.860.860.860.860.860.86
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Source: US DOE (2015) RECS and Fraunhofer (2017) as indicated
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Water heating2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (billion gals)32343638414346
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Fuel type
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% demand met by natural gas94%94%94%94%94%94%94%
assume no change
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% demand met by electricity6%6%6%6%6%6%6%
assume no change
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Natural gas water heating stock
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% centralized/tank81%81%81%81%81%81%81%
assume no change
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% distributed/tankless19%19%19%19%19%19%19%
assume no change
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Natural gas water heater stock average efficiency
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Centralized/tank (TE) 0.77 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87
best products now are in the high 90s for TE, but we assume slower adoption than for distributed/tankless: https://www.energystar.gov/productfinder/product/certified-commercial-water-heaters/results?formId=60783-09-4440-94-784236&scrollTo=3235&search_text=&fuel_filter=Natural+Gas&brand_name_isopen=0&markets_filter=United+States&zip_code_filter=&product_types=Select+a+Product+Category&sort_by=brand_name&sort_direction=asc&currentZipCode=90009&page_number=6&lastpage=0
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Distributed/tankless (EF) 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97
best products now are around 98, but this is asymptotic: https://www.energystar.gov/productfinder/product/certified-commercial-water-heaters/results?formId=60783-09-4440-94-784236&scrollTo=3235&search_text=&fuel_filter=Natural+Gas&brand_name_isopen=0&markets_filter=United+States&zip_code_filter=&product_types=Select+a+Product+Category&sort_by=brand_name&sort_direction=asc&currentZipCode=90009&page_number=6&lastpage=0
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Electric water heating stock
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% distributed/tankless92%92%92%92%92%92%92%
assume no change
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% heat pump8%8%8%8%8%8%8%
assume no change
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Electric water heater stock average efficiency
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Distributed/tankless (EF) 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
assume no change: https://www.energystar.gov/productfinder/product/certified-commercial-water-heaters/results
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Heat pump water heater (COP) 3.00 3.27 3.56 3.87 4.22 4.59 5.00
Assumes that avg COP plateaus at 5 by 2050: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191000228X#fig3
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Dishwashing2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million cycles)493516550586622658698
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Dishwasher stock average efficiency (EF)0.650.650.650.650.650.650.65
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Lighting2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million ft2)16682174671863219849210612230023645
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Lighting technology stock composition
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% of lumens met by incandescent bulbs12%12%12%12%12%12%12%
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% of lumens met by fluorescent bulbs58%58%58%58%58%58%58%
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% of lumens met by LEDs30%30%30%30%30%30%30%
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Lighting technology stock average energy efficiency
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Incandescent (lumens/W) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
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Fluorescent (lumens/W) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
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LED (lumens/W) 75 75 75 75 75 75 75
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Personal computer (desktop)2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million units)20212224252728
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Desktop PC stock average efficiency (kWh/unit)355355355355355355355
do these stay constant or grow in proportion to square footage for baseline scenario?
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Personal computer (laptop)2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million units)34363840434548
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Laptop PC stock average efficiency (kWh/unit)132132132132132132132
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Computer monitor2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million units)28293133353840
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Monitor stock average efficiency (kWh/unit)102.33102.33102.33102.33102.33102.33102.33
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Refrigeration2022202520302035204020452050
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Baseline demand (million cubic feet)66697378838893
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Demand reduction (%)0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Refrigerator stock average efficiency (kWh/ft3)26.6026.6026.6026.6026.6026.6026.60
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