Raw Home Team Win Likelihoods for NCAA Basketball
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQAR
1
Min RemainingHome Team Lead
2
-21-20-19-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891011121314151617181920
3
% of times home team wins000000000000000000.0050.0070.0280.1110.2490.4710.6620.8380.9420.9620.9940.9920.9971111111111111
4
1000000000000000.0190.0260.0520.1610.1170.2670.4610.5490.6240.7570.8140.9190.9460.950.9590.976111111111111
5
20000000000.0260.02900.0240.0240.0860.1050.1120.1380.1850.3350.4140.4930.560.6780.7580.8230.9150.9480.9410.990.9930.9961111111111
6
30000000.01700.05100.01200.0460.0840.0570.0340.1010.0650.1530.3160.3610.5060.6170.5750.7780.8160.7920.9420.9660.9520.9670.951111111111
7
40000000.1320.0310.02300.00600.0420.0560.1110.0410.1190.1560.2960.2540.3150.4460.5650.770.7570.7480.7730.9560.9690.9140.9680.9610.9910.98311111111
8
50000000.108000.0240.0120.0080.0880.0510.0870.0640.1810.2390.2230.3090.390.4480.7110.6860.7340.80.9040.8820.9620.9930.970.9940.9850.98410.984111111
9
60000.0160.0630.0190.104000.0280.0070.0190.0780.070.120.0430.1430.140.360.3620.5760.50.5720.6050.7820.6280.8870.8750.950.9750.9460.9310.9650.9910.9790.986111111
10
700000.0390.0610.080.110.0330.020.0210.0090.0560.0430.120.0670.0790.2830.4820.3910.3960.4890.5530.6870.7750.6650.8930.9040.9340.9740.980.9170.9210.9630.9661111111
11
80.1110.030.150.0430.07300.010.0740.030.0340.0410.0380.1260.1470.1210.1470.2560.2390.3350.3390.5060.5230.4780.6880.7210.7650.870.9010.9610.9730.8850.9010.9880.9870.98510.9920.9911111
12
90000.06300.0970.0670.030.1060.0090.0680.0360.050.0990.1020.2080.1860.2660.3850.2940.3620.4710.5460.6990.620.8180.8840.8390.9370.860.9620.9030.9870.95711111111
13
10000000.0960.0330.1480.0430.020.0380.0740.1380.0650.1530.2610.1830.3150.2660.3590.3970.5330.7040.6210.6650.7370.7580.8330.8220.9510.9370.9730.9370.92611111111
14
11000000.0090.110.1670.1140.010.060.0460.1120.2160.230.210.2230.2680.2880.4040.4760.5380.6210.6840.6830.7490.7620.8560.7850.9440.8980.9870.9270.9330.9970.9840.99711111
15
12000000.0150.0490.1690.0510.0140.0990.1790.1360.2730.1370.2030.4210.1880.380.4710.4280.580.550.5250.6870.8080.750.8740.8380.7770.8780.9150.940.9250.9730.974111111
16
13000000.0180.0270.0460.0450.0630.2030.0740.1450.160.2310.2620.3920.3660.3790.3830.4730.4910.6840.4910.680.7630.8150.8440.8110.880.8530.9670.8870.9490.9170.9230.986110.99211
17
140000000.0680.1080.0770.0910.0760.0680.1120.1120.2650.2370.3660.4610.3920.530.4210.320.6090.6030.7120.6410.7640.840.8970.8870.9380.9230.9510.950.9280.9710.9820.9570.980.9870.9741
18
1500000000.0730.1120.0890.1250.0550.0470.1280.3030.250.260.4730.4310.490.4940.5610.5870.6080.640.7390.8120.820.8870.8360.9450.8940.8610.93910.9660.9790.990.901111
19
1600000000.0320.1920.0850.1460.1210.2330.1370.3380.2760.2550.3890.5520.3530.570.5950.5930.6750.6020.7910.6390.9170.9110.8480.9660.8320.9210.9350.9740.9710.97310.990.97211
20
170000.0270.020.2320.0260.0780.140.0780.0290.1320.1990.1880.230.3010.2820.3980.250.3930.6050.6240.7010.6270.6610.8150.7040.8690.8680.8370.9420.8280.9820.8980.9940.9740.9710.99110.95911
21
18000000.05100.1110.1230.130.0130.1880.0950.1610.270.3060.1820.3990.3410.4890.5060.5040.6070.7210.7070.6980.7980.8640.880.8810.8810.8840.9550.9930.9120.9520.985110.98211
22
19000000.1060.0170.0630.1880.2080.2120.2350.1720.080.3350.2450.1610.50.4780.5240.4860.4660.6050.6510.7730.7890.7720.8150.8350.8620.8590.9180.9290.960.9570.924111111
23
20000000.0320.0290.0470.0710.1860.2560.1230.2880.1260.3460.3330.3340.4870.310.3830.510.550.5480.6250.7670.8330.7410.7950.8860.8760.890.9440.9450.9740.9350.934111111
24
21000000.0560.1360.0070.1540.0870.3130.2750.1340.230.3040.1660.4210.50.3680.570.4850.4850.6090.590.6350.7850.6720.8220.8850.9270.940.9510.9030.9770.9190.9090.97711111
25
2200000.050.010.0710.1020.2230.0250.1510.3910.1530.2290.3370.2670.330.3880.4380.5160.4790.6330.6220.7020.5610.7790.8070.7720.8370.9240.9130.9790.9410.9470.9390.9390.98811111
26
2300000.0240.1320.0330.0250.2570.1120.1880.1860.1150.2520.1820.4240.4010.3460.4310.5430.6020.5020.6150.60.640.8190.6340.8480.860.9220.8830.970.8720.9210.9370.961111111
27
240000.1670.1710.1250.1610.2350.2730.2120.1870.1860.1610.2610.280.3380.3950.4120.4530.5480.5180.5730.5530.7110.6080.8140.7370.8140.8240.9280.8460.9260.9110.9640.950.943111111
28
250000.5630.0430.1850.3540.2160.0830.1450.3820.0930.1260.2810.2260.2940.440.5430.480.5360.5180.5710.5750.6820.660.7910.7790.7930.8370.9070.9310.8160.9580.9590.991111111
29
260000.6670.2080.2740.0940.360.1330.0510.130.110.1230.2050.360.3260.5960.4840.3920.4920.6380.50.7560.6640.6520.670.8580.7220.8360.8820.8950.8480.9040.9330.8861111111
30
2700000.2730.17200.3150.1940.0650.0940.1830.1460.3310.2850.3290.3120.4590.5820.5140.6260.6470.6040.6870.7160.7470.7710.8120.8010.8210.8760.9110.8530.9780.9190.9810.99411111
31
2800000.0630.3210.240.1250.170.1560.1410.2760.190.0830.2550.4030.3810.4670.4890.510.5790.5750.6070.6310.7810.8140.8190.7560.7160.8230.8480.9090.9140.9910.9490.980.9780.9681111
32
2900000.16700.1030.3330.2810.2940.0820.2970.2660.2740.1890.250.370.5370.4150.5840.5220.6110.6730.6260.670.7410.7930.7790.8580.7380.8490.8810.9050.9790.92610.91111111
33
30000000.03300.3810.3860.1430.0930.2620.2340.1680.2570.3250.4020.4230.4020.5690.6230.6050.6410.760.7670.7370.7790.7590.7970.7070.9020.8340.9540.950.9690.994111111
34
3100000000.1670.250.1390.160.2460.3510.2390.3950.240.410.450.4940.6840.5440.6180.6840.6340.6950.7370.7970.730.7630.8090.8050.8870.9810.93611111111
35
32000000.25000.13600.3940.4250.3020.4090.3040.3620.4830.4440.4750.6880.5740.6530.6430.6620.6710.7130.7710.7780.8080.8640.8480.9230.985111111111
36
33000000000.2500.4590.4610.1850.4260.4320.280.4280.4140.4130.7010.5550.5970.6140.7370.6870.7440.7850.8140.7730.9260.8810.9271111111111
37
34000000000.20.1920.160.4530.2990.250.4050.3210.4850.4870.5230.6150.6180.6630.6510.7020.6650.7450.7850.7780.9170.9150.9290.9270.9640.95511111111
38
35000000000.60.1250.1360.3030.2760.350.3970.3050.4790.4920.3680.6340.5740.6740.630.6940.6880.8010.7740.8020.9130.9180.8990.8580.7950.86811111111
39
36000000000.500.17500.2780.1790.490.4670.4020.5880.4190.5780.5540.6570.6330.7280.6960.8380.840.8420.8550.870.7990.9270.9060.90.8571111111
40
3700000000000.2500.2410.220.420.3760.4210.5740.5260.5220.5790.6560.6290.7220.7140.8050.870.8440.8580.8910.90911111111111
41
3800000000000010.750.60.5420.4510.5150.5010.5450.5830.6320.6380.7170.7550.7160.8070.8350.9321111111111111
42
3900000000000000000.6250.4760.5790.5210.5960.660.7280.7110.8260.7760.794111111111111111
43
44
45
-21-20-19-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891011121314151617181920
46
# of Observations0372618413297737012012916425023837029034733236639531231325727730537736739039132233233130828524023313215613213213814070
47
1231844374463112126107123117137159122132151183149171135141162174150185117149210193212192218196188204142162162117159134134
48
22123274749558063891168611083105105129129127189130185139252129151124147172185157138126159128171150159137152141123110
49
333302566435059787875868812095791041491391011281651711711611671251831651631551841901411311441461651071259111597
50
447323534403568648610184868310815311013514714712817614715414814014918315912911617219016814915510913210198105124104
51
54636384134483792501048511868118132117138140195160132165140156173180166144145137118172162158135191102899010212093
52
6463527624054536240106681049612912911791157150141165128145177163168150140160142931751441711661431201279211588110
53
738433264386650596150941108912813312012713816421117318313215020412713616612915417715616518716315713214612395109129
54
8273340474147496866447380107951031091171421211801611922041411921361381471801471431511651511681271301129613012099
55
9373822484267456652578897801111331081611711171771342061741832381431471431341291451341561401251291461201671119089
56
10294030254447466181748081588515011910916815216715522516717721217915513816613212616911188981211231571309413999
57
11302836434655416357981345489102139621591422081921911962152451802131681801771531221561571201931251721151238710790
58
1219164722406741628973106425988124791711121831711601751811791471541721551511571441231331601661151471001299115085
59
1324433015268374657863796176721211241391341531791871601902241861711841571591911741801461561507810611096121134114
60
1423303631584444605255728198941001371381281571681591611692332121851611811171941371501741391251221421289911611791
61
154033642365374782589080127851131091361271492181911721812182122351882371921771621461701691311681321441031721038996
62
162736232744344394609482951019580161137176182170235179210163261179202198141151179164151139156103130108103106104112
63
1728283537494138775777521061081201281681471671601781961851871892422331672321591631461341141611631141391151071218977
64
1824163417444928546969781121051431391621212021851812472281871792302582002061541771591551221441371241351321041107792
65
193026292630332932566552858775971001091431351861751771661691741781711491551231531101061251381059910277955685
66
20242035322579355356105881021041271402252142322482612472682622673112432342022512022461522181361681291541411051237281
67
2124232216113666768169755111210013515716417420422123229424823432515818322524717827616415415013516513399115847283
68
2219131311105156546559109691471291041501941702021822872552662772702062311972061652421662051501061141221059010410961
69
239222292119606176989310296149107171187253238234259299235244329320238224204174200168187171175102123941021467197
70
24691564124285175738310287138143148186243190251246274309284232283173269179243188170207168149115797772715657
71
258181782327413736765110895112159158175235173238273253233291219287240290208178159231168169101108619077678627
72
26562833631322530598173126139125190162221195254250220238311244261261261211191143210167201136144837164454328
73
27313123329394636318593127142170199173258208284262290302276276340258250254251173190191158148107885356293929
74
28831116142528443264116126132165195215243188248248335280279318271339260204212141186191107118126896346223525
75
2995151216292132516196941131641381812142472792703413273213123342782132291891761811379410195564849462231
76
30422812302121223554617711314815721026126126932436530136839130826727821918419315712090648953444842123
77
31881225182036476184109195154260232327301385387334354434361303269224191190173809485806937161783
78
32582416222952601011041151452022503163294253783494043434022882702601881581501038857632029771
79
3311211517123037648113512517318724922330636641746935633535530425325815614717873625040172523
80
3458312352625326794121223203233237374373405447421364320296248181170126103843332102071
81
3521475822385870131205242295326449441550431462520337356262225177173744438261561
82
36111262073667104153292227383436416581545496424405319272210115874132107511
83
3722427256910921426539055641375549465847436628516016255221842
84
38141536163194387633391125036379138427320794442101122
85
393842184570166208913667424138348241
86
87
88
# wins by home team-21-20-19-18-17-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891011121314151617181920
89
(note: ties are considered 000000000000000001.52.51134.578121183.5255.5355353387.538832133233130828524023313215613213213814070
90
.5 wins)1000000000000002.549.52420366589108.5113.5150.5107.5141199.5185207192218196188204142162162117159134134
91
200000000032.5022.5913.514.517.53543.576.568.514187.5114.5102134.5163174155.5137125.5159128171150159137152141123110
92
30000001040105.584.53.515915.540.559.586.5105.592.5130102145155.5157.5147.5178180.51411311441461651071259111597
93
400000092200.503.56174.5162343.532.555.565.587114106111.5141.5152125106166.5182.5166.5146.515510913210198105124104
94
50000004002.5116611.57.52533.543.549.551.57499.5107127144150127139.5136114.5171159.5155.5135188102899010212093
95
600012.515.50030.527.5915.5513225451956483107127.5105.5133122.5152138.588163139169.5162.51411201279211588110
96
700001.5446.5212155.516810397982.568.589.57310315884.5121.5150120.5150173.5143152180157.515713214612395109129
97
83162300.5521.53313.51412.516303440.56181.5100.597.597138.5104120132.5173143126.5136163149165.51271291119613012099
98
9000306.5325.50.563.541113.522.53045.5455248.59795128147.5117130120125.5111139.51211541341251291461201671119089
99
10000004.51.593.51.53685.52331205340.56061.5120117.5110141132117.5115136.5125.5118164.510481.5981211231571309413999
100
11000000.54.510.56.5182.51022321335.5386077.591105.5133.5167.5123159.5128154139144.5109.5154145.5112192.5123171.51151238710790
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