Modeling Virality - Blog

	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P
1
2
3	100	New Users		Cycles	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
4	75%	Participation Rate		New Users	100	105	110	116	122	128	134	141	148	155	163
5	75	Invite Friends		Total Users	100	205	315	431	553	680	814	955	1103	1258	1421
6	7	Branching Factor		Growth		105.00%	53.78%	36.72%	28.20%	23.10%	19.70%	17.28%	15.47%	14.07%	12.95%
7	525	Receive Invites
8	50%	Clickthrough Rate
9	263	New Visitors
10	40%	Conversion Rate
11	1.05	Viral Coefficient					10	Day Cycle Time
12							20,000	Carrying Capacity
13
14	Months	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
15	Saturation	0.00%	0.50%	1.07%	2.27%	4.73%	9.47%	17.59%	28.92%	40.80%	50.41%	57.35%	62.34%	66.05%
16	Viral Coefficient	1.05	1.04	1.04	1.03	1.00	0.95	0.87	0.75	0.62	0.52	0.45	0.40	0.36
17	Total Cycles	0.0	3.0	6.1	9.1	12.2	15.2	18.2	21.3	24.3	27.4	30.4	33.4	36.5
18	New Users	100	114	240	492	947	1,623	2,266	2,377	1,923	1,386	998	743	574
19	Total Users	100	214	455	947	1,894	3,517	5,783	8,160	10,083	11,469	12,467	13,210	13,784
20	MoM Growth		114.23%	112.25%	108.16%	100.09%	85.72%	64.42%	41.09%	23.57%	13.75%	8.70%	5.96%	4.35%
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100