Shared Copy - Ditto Disguise Frequency Study
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Ditto Disguise Preference Study
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by /u/paanvaand
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Tabs
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Original Response Data - Unaltered form data collected anonymously and indiscriminately from individuals with access to the Google Form link. Includes Timestamp for observation submission and Pokémon species that observer's Ditto was disguised as.Summary & Analysis - Includes a summary of all unique Pokémon species reported as Ditto disguises. Raw count of reports of each species, frequency of species reported relative to all other species counted, and chi-squared test to establish significance. Includes extra information for easy reference if others want to analyze other trends in the data.
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Pokémon Data Reference - Extra reference information for Pokémon species. Includes source for Pokémon spawn rate data.Conclusions & Discussion - Summary of results that can be drawn from this study and discussions about these findings. Clarification about what assumptions these findings pre-suppose and what cross-referencing the two analyses conducted in the Summary & Analysis tab tell us about Ditto's disguise preference.
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Notes
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Egg distances - Egg distances for evolved Pokémon included in the Summary & Analysis and Pokémon Data tabs are based on the Basic Pokémon's hatch rate in that evolutionary line (e.g. Butterfree's hatch distance is 2km since it evolves from Caterpie, which hatches from 2km eggs). Additionally, while Rattata and Pidgey no longer hatch from 2km eggs, they and their evolutions are included as 2km egg hatches since that is what they were originally. There are many claims that Ditto disguises itself as 2km-hatch Pokémon or their evolutions, and since Ditto definitely disguises itself as Pidgey and Rattata, an egg distance needed to be included to investigate this trend. I have not analyzed this trend and leave it for someone else to pursue.Pokémon spawn frequencies - these data are taken from the RankedBoost website (linked below the primary columns of data in both the Summary & Analysis and Pokémon Data tabs). Most spawn frequency sets such as these are created by analyzing Pokémon Go tracker data, which have been widely unavailable for a while now due to recent changes by Niantic. Therefore, the current spawn frequencies may differ from these data. However, they may be approximately reflective of the current spawn rates in case any others are interested in investigating connections between Ditto spawn frequencies and normal species spawn frequencies. I have not investigated this trend and leave it to others who are interested to pursue.
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Chi-squared test - The null hypothesis in Case 1 (the initial and main study case) would be that Ditto chooses to disguise itself as all other Pokémon species available in the game equally frequently. There are currently n = 145 Pokémon obtainable in the game that Ditto could choose to spawn as. This number includes region exclusives (i.e. Tauros, Mr. Mime, Farfetch'd, and Kangaskhan) and does not consider that these region-specific Pokémon are not found in the wild outside their respective regions. Therefore, the degrees of freedom is equal to n - 1 = 144. Any chi-squared value above 104.044 (the 0.995 probability content between X² and infinity) significantly deviates (p < 0.05) from the expected number of counts in the dataset. These values are highlighted in green in the Summary & Analysis tab and those rows are bolded for easy reference.Data reliability - These data were gathered through collecting anonymous reports indiscriminately through a Google Form. The Form was accessible to anyone with the URL. Therefore, some of these reports may not be accurate. There has been no definitive proof (videos or screenshots) provided of Pokémon besides Magikarp, Rattata, Pidgey, and Zubat transforming into Ditto. Specifically, there have been no reliable reports about rare Pokémon such as Lapras, Snorlax, or Dragonite transforming into Ditto. However, these Pokémon are represented in this dataset as reported Ditto disguises. I would caution readers to take these reports with a grain of salt. However, the lack of concrete proof does not constitute ample reason to discount these data and thus they are included in the dataset.
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What this dataset is and what it is not - The reason these data were collected were to identify which Pokémon, if any, Ditto frequently disguises itself as. The primary purpose of these data is not to inform discussion about which Pokémon Ditto disguises itself as. Referring to the previous note (Data reliability), there may be inacurate reports in this dataset due to the data collection method. Therefore, a report in this dataset should not be taken as confirmation that Ditto disguises itself as a Pokémon reported in this dataset. There are no concrete lists of Pokémon that Ditto can be disguised as at the time of this analysis (11/26/16 GMT).Case 1 - Does not take into account spawn frequencies (proxy of Pokémon rarity) in calculating chi-squared value. Therefore the expected counts for the chi-squared test is calculated as the total number of reports (1,308) divided by the total number of possible Pokémon Ditto can spawn as (145). This assumes the following Ditto mechanic: Ditto disguises itself as any Pokémon regardless of that Pokémon's normal spawn frequency. Pokémon that Ditto disguises itself as statistically more frequently than expected under this assumption are bolded in the Summary & Analysis tab.
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Case 2 - Takes into account spawn frequencies (proxity of Pokémon rarity) in calculating the chi-squared value. Therefore, the expected counts for the chi-sqaured test are calculated as the total number of reports for a given Pokémon species multiplied by the spawn frequency of that species. This assumes the following Ditto mechanic: Pokémon that spawn based off of their normal spawn frequency have a set chance of becoming Dittos-in-disguise at the server-level (so that the Ditto-in-disguise is synced across all devices). Therefore, one would expect under this assumption that Ditto would naturally spawn more frequently as common Pokémon due to their high basal spawn frequency. Pokémon that Ditto disguises itself as statistically more frequently than expected under this assumption are italicized in the Summary & Analysis tab.
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Introduction
Original Response Data
Summary & Analysis
Conclusions & Discussion
Pokémon Data Reference