ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
勝率 (W)
Win Probability 		60.00%原文* 只有n勝機率
* 0勝 = 開場3敗 = (1-W) ^ 3
* 1勝 = 1勝3敗 = WLLL * 出現分佈
* 用nCr求得4種分佈, WLLL, LWLL, LLWL, LLLW
* 由於LLLW 不能出現, 減去這數目
* 2勝 = 2勝3敗 = WWLLL * 出現分佈
* 用nCr求得10種分佈, WWLLL, WLLWL, ....
* 減去 LLL, LLWL, LWLL 等組合, 剛好就是上組nCr的分佈
* 至少n勝機率 = 1 - sum(只有0勝的機率 ~ 只有n-1勝的機率)
* 不超過n勝機率 = 只有0 勝 +... + 只有N-1勝
2
三敗機率 (L)
3 Loses Probability
6.40%
https://forum.gamer.com.tw/Co.php?bsn=29712&sn=67804
3
4
勝場數x
(Number of wins)		(L*(W)^x)(x+3)C3 出現次數
(Frequency)		只有X勝的機率
(Probability of only X win)		不超過x勝的機率
(Probability of below X wins)		至少x勝的機率
(Probability of at least X wins)
5
06.4000%16.40%6.40%100.00%
6
13.8400%411.52%17.92%93.60%
7
22.3040%1013.82%31.74%82.08%
8
31.3824%2013.82%45.57%68.26%
9
40.8294%3512.44%58.01%54.43%
10
50.4977%5610.45%68.46%41.99%
11
60.2986%848.36%76.82%31.54%
12
70.1792%1206.45%83.27%23.18%
13
80.1075%1654.84%88.11%16.73%
14
90.0645%2203.55%91.66%11.89%
15
100.0387%2862.55%94.21%8.34%
16
110.0232%3641.81%96.02%5.79%
17
120.0139%4551.27%97.29%3.98%
18
130.0084%5600.88%98.17%2.71%
19
140.0050%6800.60%98.77%1.83%
20
150.0030%8160.41%99.18%1.23%
21
160.0018%9690.28%99.45%0.82%
22
170.0011%11400.19%99.64%0.55%
23
180.0006%13300.12%99.76%0.36%
24
190.0004%15400.08%99.84%0.24%
25
200.0002%17710.05%100.00%0.16%
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100