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Cohort Analysis for LTV Calc for Non-recurring businesses (i.e. market place or ecommerce)
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by Alex Oppenheimer, alex@verissimo.vc
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February 2021
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Case Count per month by cohort
Cases/Purchases
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Customers in Cohort4/30/205/31/206/30/207/31/208/31/209/30/2010/31/2011/30/2012/31/201/31/212/28/213/31/21
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4/30/2020 7 7 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1
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5/31/2020 10 11 1 0 2 1 0 4 0
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6/30/2020 15 15 1 0 2 1 2 0
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7/31/2020 20 20 1 0 5 1 0
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8/31/2020 30 30 1 0 2 1
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Shifted for cohorting
Age of Cohort
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Customers in Cohort123456789101112
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4/30/2020 7 7 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1
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5/31/2020 10 11 1 0 2 1 0 4 0
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6/30/2020 15 15 1 0 2 1 2 0
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7/31/2020 20 20 1 0 5 1 0
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8/31/2020 30 30 1 0 2 1
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On a per customer basis
Cases/Purchases per customer in cohort
Repeat Cases
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Customers in Cohort123456789101112Total Cases / customerRepeat cases / customerMonth CountExpectedAnnualized Cases
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4/30/2020 7 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.29 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.14 1.71 0.71 90.951.95
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5/31/2020 10 1.10 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.10 0.00 0.40 0.00 1.90 0.90 81.352.35
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6/30/2020 15 1.00 0.07 0.00 0.13 0.07 0.13 0.00 1.40 0.40 70.691.69
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7/31/2020 20 1.00 0.05 0.00 0.25 0.05 0.00 1.35 0.35 60.701.70
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8/31/2020 30 1.00 0.03 0.00 0.07 0.03 1.13 0.13 50.321.32
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average1.80
<-- # of cases we can expect per year from every new customer
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When we acquire a new customer who has a case/purchase with us, we can expect them to book/buy 0.80 more cases/purchases in the following year
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Therefore the value of that customer (assuming same price) is 1.80x whatever the value of the first case/purchase
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Cost to acquire a customer
$100
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Average Case/Purchase price
$75
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Customer Value Annualized
$135
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Annualized Value/CAC
 1.35
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CAC Payback
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