EU ref: English districts, formula prediction if England votes 50/50

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	X	Y	Z
1		The formula uses mostly 2011 census data, as well as UKIP share at 2014 Euro election
2		Compiled by AndyJS
3
4		Greater London
5			Pop	White British Ethnicity	%	Non-white	%	Age 16-32	%	Residents 16+	Level 1 Qualfcs	%	Level 4 Qualfcs & Above	%	16-74 in Employment	Professionals	%	Agr, For, Fish	%	UKIP % 2014 Euro Elections	Remain prediction if England votes 50/50	Compared to 50%	Remain % Result	Remain % Prediction adjusted for England result of 46.6% Remain	Error
6		Barking & Dagenham	185,911	91,949	49.46	77,525	41.70	47,384	25.49	137,613	20,904	15.19	28,715	20.87	75,217	10,024	13.33	44	0.06	28.1	54.04	4.04	37.6	50.7	-13.1
7		Barnet	356,386	162,117	45.49	127,833	35.87	90,378	25.36	282,152	27,240	9.65	113,815	40.34	170,658	42,157	24.70	72	0.04	15.0	66.55	16.55	62.2	63.2	-1.0
8		Bexley	231,997	179,250	77.26	42,035	18.12	50,273	21.67	184,431	31,049	16.84	40,146	21.77	110,159	16,225	14.73	81	0.07	37.6	44.53	-5.47	37.0	41.2	-4.2
9		Brent	311,215	55,887	17.96	198,335	63.73	93,004	29.88	248,458	25,718	10.35	82,619	33.25	147,461	26,814	18.18	66	0.04	8.7	72.97	22.97	59.7	69.6	-9.9
10		Bromley	309,392	239,478	77.40	48,522	15.68	60,856	19.67	248,806	33,858	13.61	82,304	33.08	151,368	32,394	21.40	160	0.11	31.1	50.94	0.94	50.6	47.6	3.0
11		Camden	220,338	96,937	43.99	74,283	33.71	74,293	33.72	184,873	12,556	6.79	93,453	50.55	108,966	34,721	31.86	62	0.06	9.2	74.02	24.02	74.9	70.6	4.3
12		City of London	7,375	4,243	57.53	1,576	21.37	2,182	29.59	6,755	291	4.31	4,618	68.36	4,747	1,894	39.90	2	0.04	13.8	73.56	23.56	75.3	70.2	5.1
13		Croydon	363,378	171,740	47.26	163,183	44.91	87,666	24.13	284,268	39,285	13.82	90,321	31.77	172,987	33,894	19.59	76	0.04	20.0	62.05	12.05	54.3	58.7	-4.4
14		Ealing	338,449	103,035	30.44	172,631	51.01	94,300	27.86	269,572	26,592	9.86	99,836	37.04	164,820	34,624	21.01	70	0.04	11.2	70.39	20.39	60.4	67.0	-6.6
15		Enfield	312,466	126,450	40.47	121,826	38.99	77,894	24.93	242,465	31,158	12.85	69,627	28.72	137,622	26,102	18.97	128	0.09	18.5	61.70	11.70	55.8	58.3	-2.5
16		Greenwich	254,557	133,130	52.30	95,555	37.54	70,719	27.78	199,163	23,896	12.00	66,120	33.20	117,821	24,081	20.44	110	0.09	21.0	61.48	11.48	55.6	58.1	-2.5
17		Hackney	246,270	89,030	36.15	111,653	45.34	85,885	34.87	195,145	17,500	8.97	81,591	41.81	118,556	29,638	25.00	53	0.04	4.9	75.82	25.82	78.5	72.4	6.1
18		Hammersmith & Fulham	182,493	81,989	44.93	58,271	31.93	63,845	34.98	152,863	10,725	7.02	75,765	49.56	99,618	26,933	27.04	80	0.08	12.3	71.59	21.59	70.0	68.2	1.8
19		Haringey	254,926	88,424	34.69	100,583	39.46	76,016	29.82	202,856	17,685	8.72	82,727	40.78	124,296	29,694	23.89	53	0.04	7.1	72.66	22.66	75.6	69.3	6.3
20		Harrow	239,056	73,826	30.88	138,065	57.75	59,474	24.88	190,998	20,852	10.92	70,218	36.76	113,900	26,446	23.22	35	0.03	14.0	69.16	19.16	54.6	65.8	-11.2
21		Havering	237,232	197,615	83.30	29,283	12.34	50,798	21.41	192,844	32,241	16.72	37,498	19.44	112,846	15,960	14.14	97	0.09	43.6	39.54	-10.46	30.3	36.2	-5.9
22		Hillingdon	273,936	142,916	52.17	107,905	39.39	71,818	26.22	217,043	30,336	13.98	60,854	28.04	130,290	22,237	17.07	109	0.08	26.8	56.54	6.54	43.6	53.2	-9.6
23		Hounslow	253,957	96,264	37.91	123,452	48.61	72,361	28.49	202,424	23,767	11.74	69,955	34.56	127,032	23,472	18.48	70	0.06	17.0	65.81	15.81	51.1	62.4	-11.3
24		Islington	206,125	98,322	47.70	65,610	31.83	75,600	36.68	173,300	13,943	8.05	83,276	48.05	106,765	33,384	31.27	45	0.04	9.8	73.16	23.16	75.2	69.8	5.4
25		Kensington & Chelsea	158,649	62,271	39.25	46,632	29.39	44,782	28.23	134,267	7,730	5.76	70,731	52.68	81,387	19,025	23.38	123	0.15	14.7	69.39	19.39	68.7	66.0	2.7
26		Kingston upon Thames	160,060	101,015	63.11	40,841	25.52	41,996	26.24	129,790	12,665	9.76	53,782	41.44	81,957	20,651	25.20	63	0.08	19.4	62.76	12.76	61.6	59.4	2.2
27		Lambeth	303,086	118,250	39.02	130,061	42.91	104,928	34.62	248,300	21,169	8.53	115,758	46.62	166,494	42,838	25.73	66	0.04	7.9	74.82	24.82	78.6	71.4	7.2
28		Lewisham	275,885	114,446	41.48	128,199	46.47	77,975	28.26	218,749	24,225	11.07	83,127	38.00	136,057	30,809	22.64	42	0.03	12.3	69.32	19.32	69.9	65.9	4.0
29		Merton	199,693	96,658	48.40	70,087	35.10	53,635	26.86	160,840	15,900	9.89	66,091	41.09	104,822	25,598	24.42	33	0.03	16.0	66.20	16.20	62.9	62.8	0.1
30		Newham	307,984	51,516	16.73	218,768	71.03	109,855	35.67	238,090	27,152	11.40	71,771	30.14	132,454	19,666	14.85	94	0.07	8.3	74.12	24.12	52.8	70.7	-17.9
31		Redbridge	278,970	96,253	34.50	160,324	57.47	71,768	25.73	216,112	26,437	12.23	73,299	33.92	124,692	28,543	22.89	56	0.04	15.9	67.35	17.35	54.0	64.0	-10.0
32		Richmond upon Thames	186,990	133,582	71.44	26,265	14.05	38,242	20.45	150,052	11,075	7.38	79,584	53.04	99,204	29,443	29.68	52	0.05	15.5	65.59	15.59	69.3	62.2	7.1
33		Southwark	288,283	114,534	39.73	131,934	45.77	96,069	33.32	234,901	22,077	9.40	101,172	43.07	147,388	38,033	25.80	75	0.05	11.0	72.29	22.29	72.8	68.9	3.9
34		Sutton	190,146	134,854	70.92	40,697	21.40	41,554	21.85	152,158	21,588	14.19	45,775	30.08	97,658	18,731	19.18	87	0.09	27.1	53.63	3.63	46.3	50.3	-4.0
35		Tower Hamlets	254,096	79,231	31.18	139,277	54.81	104,264	41.03	203,953	18,928	9.28	83,675	41.03	120,873	31,026	25.67	35	0.03	9.8	75.06	25.06	67.5	71.7	-4.2
36		Waltham Forest	258,249	92,999	36.01	123,450	47.80	74,296	28.77	203,131	24,934	12.27	60,914	29.99	121,021	21,634	17.88	70	0.06	16.2	65.14	15.14	59.1	61.8	-2.7
37		Wandsworth	306,995	163,739	53.34	87,779	28.59	107,775	35.11	255,989	16,903	6.60	137,142	53.57	178,582	51,734	28.97	77	0.04	10.9	72.94	22.94	75.0	69.6	5.4
38		Westminster	219,396	77,334	35.25	84,066	38.32	70,389	32.08	186,812	12,308	6.59	93,946	50.29	111,179	29,593	26.62	77	0.07	13.6	71.49	21.49	69.0	68.1	0.9
39
40		TOTALS	8,173,941	3,669,284	44.89	3,286,506	40.21	2,342,274	28.66	6,549,173	702,687	10.73	2,470,225	37.72	3,998,897	898,018	22.46	2,363	0.06	16.9	65.73	15.73	59.9	62.4	-2.5
41
42																							Greater London:
43
44																							Counting areas: 33
45																							Correct prediction: 29
46																							Incorrect prediction: 4
47
48
49
50
51
52		West Midlands Region
53
54		West Midlands County
55			Pop	White British Ethnicity	%	Non-white	%	Age 16-32	%	Residents 16+	Level 1 Qualfcs	%	Level 4 Qualfcs & Above	%	16-74 in Employment	Professionals	%	Agr, For, Fish	%	UKIP % 2014 Euro Elections	Remain prediction if England votes 50/50	Compared to 50%	Remain % Result	Remain % Prediction adjusted for England result of 46.6% Remain	Error
56		Birmingham	1,073,045	570,217	53.14	451,409	42.07	294,729	27.47	828,363	110,158	13.30	190,335	22.98	423,691	77,424	18.27	419	0.10	22.5	58.57	8.57	49.6	55.2	-5.6
57		Coventry	316,960	211,188	66.63	82,931	26.16	89,096	28.11	254,106	33,782	13.29	58,566	23.05	137,560	22,093	16.06	259	0.19	26.5	53.91	3.91	44.4	50.5	-6.1
58		Dudley	312,925	277,050	88.54	31,318	10.01	64,155	20.50	253,421	36,286	14.32	48,584	19.17	141,998	19,883	14.00	137	0.10	38.4	42.14	-7.86	32.4	38.8	-6.4
59		Sandwell	308,063	202,822	65.84	92,592	30.06	73,431	23.84	241,829	34,723	14.36	37,151	15.36	128,630	14,312	11.13	132	0.10	30.1	49.47	-0.53	33.3	46.1	-12.8
60		Solihull	206,674	177,248	85.76	22,430	10.85	39,261	19.00	167,493	22,790	13.61	47,783	28.53	97,941	19,446	19.85	200	0.20	32.5	48.11	-1.89	43.8	44.7	-0.9
61		Walsall	269,323	207,237	76.95	56,854	21.11	59,432	22.07	213,123	31,117	14.60	35,989	16.89	112,270	14,172	12.62	126	0.11	33.6	46.22	-3.78	32.1	42.8	-10.7
62		Wolverhampton	249,470	160,945	64.51	79,788	31.98	59,771	23.96	200,047	28,187	14.09	39,021	19.51	104,284	14,253	13.67	193	0.19	31.3	50.19	0.19	37.4	46.8	-9.4
63
64		TOTALS	2,736,460	1,806,707	66.02	817,322	29.87	679,875	24.85	2,158,382	297,043	13.76	457,429	21.19	1,146,374	181,583	15.84	1,466	0.13	30.7	50.93	0.93
65
66		West Midlands (excl. WM County)
67			Pop	White British Ethnicity	%	Non-white	%	Age 16-32	%	Residents 16+	Level 1 Qualfcs	%	Level 4 Qualfcs & Above	%	16-74 in Employment	Professionals	%	Agr, For, Fish	%	UKIP % 2014 Euro Elections	Remain prediction if England votes 50/50	Compared to 50%	Remain % Result	Remain % Prediction adjusted for England result of 46.6% Remain	Error
68	Unitary	Herefordshire	183,477	171,922	93.70	3,308	1.80	33,562	18.29	151,962	19,396	12.76	41,779	27.49	90,237	13,066	14.48	4,893	5.42	32.8	46.50	-3.50	40.8	43.1	-2.3
69		Shropshire	306,129	292,047	95.40	6,255	2.04	56,745	18.54	252,979	33,158	13.11	69,558	27.50	150,748	23,906	15.86	5,807	3.85	33.0	46.34	-3.66	43.1	43.0	0.1
70		Stoke-on-Trent	249,008	215,222	86.43	28,296	11.36	60,550	24.32	200,642	28,825	14.37	31,041	15.47	108,109	11,322	10.47	140	0.13	39.7	41.11	-8.89	30.6	37.7	-7.1
71		Telford & Wrekin	166,641	149,096	89.47	12,226	7.34	37,426	22.46	132,440	20,055	15.14	27,713	20.92	78,372	10,919	13.93	713	0.91	36.2	43.82	-6.18	36.8	40.4	-3.6
72	Staffs	Cannock Chase	97,462	94,042	96.49	2,206	2.26	20,641	21.18	79,027	12,884	16.30	13,606	17.22	47,476	5,264	11.09	131	0.28	38.8	40.16	-9.84	31.1	36.8	-5.7
73		East Staffordshire	113,583	97,854	86.15	10,879	9.58	23,954	21.09	91,821	13,019	14.18	21,466	23.38	54,921	8,008	14.58	777	1.41	33.9	46.01	-3.99	36.8	42.6	-5.8
74		Lichfield	100,654	95,263	94.64	3,255	3.23	18,165	18.05	83,057	11,388	13.71	23,604	28.42	49,016	9,043	18.45	550	1.12	35.5	45.03	-4.97	41.2	41.6	-0.4
75		Newcastle-under-Lyme	123,871	115,510	93.25	6,209	5.01	27,702	22.36	102,813	13,094	12.74	23,121	22.49	57,366	9,036	15.75	364	0.63	35.2	44.61	-5.39	37.0	41.2	-4.2
76		South Staffordshire	108,131	102,339	94.64	4,431	4.10	19,307	17.86	90,506	12,597	13.92	22,707	25.09	53,328	8,832	16.56	571	1.07	40.7	41.13	-8.87	35.2	37.8	-2.6
77		Stafford	130,869	121,160	92.58	6,561	5.01	25,956	19.83	108,626	13,804	12.71	32,887	30.28	64,494	12,284	19.05	1,131	1.75	33.2	47.52	-2.48	44.0	44.1	-0.1
78		Staffordshire Moorlands	97,106	94,657	97.48	1,281	1.32	16,405	16.89	81,106	10,406	12.83	19,255	23.74	47,591	7,008	14.73	1,134	2.38	36.7	42.70	-7.30	35.3	39.3	-4.0
79		Tamworth	76,813	72,984	95.02	2,052	2.67	16,798	21.87	61,467	10,713	17.43	10,706	17.42	38,281	4,417	11.54	74	0.19	34.7	42.78	-7.22	32.5	39.4	-6.9
80	Warks	North Warwickshire	62,014	59,499	95.94	1,305	2.10	11,325	18.26	51,049	7,800	15.28	10,096	19.78	31,258	4,060	12.99	352	1.13	39.3	40.23	-9.77	33.1	36.8	-3.7
81		Nuneaton & Bedworth	125,252	111,379	88.92	10,860	8.67	26,594	21.23	101,244	15,829	15.63	18,801	18.57	60,205	7,712	12.81	118	0.20	32.8	45.11	-4.89	34.0	41.7	-7.7
82		Rugby	100,075	84,210	84.15	9,510	9.50	20,276	20.26	80,689	10,707	13.27	22,735	28.18	50,485	8,914	17.66	445	0.88	29.3	49.91	-0.09	43.3	46.5	-3.2
83		Stratford-on-Avon	120,485	112,780	93.61	3,178	2.64	19,225	15.96	100,042	11,971	11.97	33,396	33.38	60,765	11,245	18.51	1,408	2.32	29.6	49.47	-0.53	48.4	46.1	2.3
84		Warwick	137,648	114,739	83.36	14,933	10.85	33,276	24.17	114,051	11,539	10.12	43,836	38.44	69,608	17,365	24.95	339	0.49	22.9	57.46	7.46	58.8	54.1	4.7
85	Worcs	Bromsgrove	93,637	87,640	93.60	3,941	4.21	16,094	17.19	77,107	9,875	12.81	23,551	30.54	46,251	9,737	21.05	307	0.66	35.6	45.63	-4.37	44.6	42.3	2.3
86		Malvern Hills	74,631	71,019	95.16	1,790	2.40	11,669	15.64	62,219	6,957	11.18	21,113	33.93	34,361	7,006	20.39	977	2.84	31.4	48.64	-1.36	47.8	45.3	2.5
87		Redditch	84,214	73,591	87.39	6,717	7.98	19,007	22.57	67,656	10,683	15.79	14,007	20.70	42,922	5,625	13.11	178	0.41	36.2	43.77	-6.23	37.7	40.4	-2.7
88		Worcester	98,768	88,016	89.11	6,474	6.55	24,373	24.68	80,291	10,235	12.75	22,211	27.66	50,101	9,078	18.12	122	0.24	28.7	50.39	0.39	46.3	47.0	-0.7
89		Wychavon	116,944	109,834	93.92	2,487	2.13	19,325	16.53	97,039	12,694	13.08	27,870	28.72	58,268	9,410	16.15	1,491	2.56	35.1	44.98	-5.02	42.1	41.6	0.5
90		Wyre Forest	97,975	92,822	94.74	2,702	2.76	17,874	18.24	81,190	11,553	14.23	17,916	22.07	46,339	6,262	13.51	337	0.73	36.6	42.50	-7.50	36.9	39.1	-2.2
91
92		TOTALS	2,865,387	2,627,625	91.70	150,856	5.26	576,249	20.11	2,349,023	319,182	13.59	592,975	25.24	1,390,502	219,519	15.79	22,359	1.61	23.9	51.68	1.68
93
94		TOTALS (West Midlands Region)	5,601,847	4,434,332	79.16	968,178	17.28	1,256,124	22.42	4,507,405	585,810	13.00	1,050,404	23.30	2,536,876	401,102	15.81	23,825	0.94	31.5	48.83	-1.17	40.7	45.5	-4.8
95
96																							West Midlands:
97
98																							Counting areas: 30
99																							Correct prediction: 28
100																							Incorrect prediction: 2