EU ref: English districts, formula prediction if England votes 50/50
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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The formula uses mostly 2011 census data, as well as UKIP share at 2014 Euro election
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Compiled by AndyJS
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Greater London
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PopWhite British Ethnicity%Non-white%Age 16-32%Residents 16+Level 1 Qualfcs%Level 4 Qualfcs & Above%16-74 in EmploymentProfessionals%Agr, For, Fish%UKIP % 2014 Euro ElectionsRemain prediction if England votes 50/50Compared to 50%Remain % ResultRemain % Prediction adjusted for England result of 46.6% RemainError
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Barking & Dagenham185,91191,94949.4677,52541.7047,38425.49137,61320,90415.1928,71520.8775,21710,02413.33440.0628.154.044.0437.650.7-13.1
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Barnet356,386162,11745.49127,83335.8790,37825.36282,15227,2409.65113,81540.34170,65842,15724.70720.0415.066.5516.5562.263.2-1.0
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Bexley231,997179,25077.2642,03518.1250,27321.67184,43131,04916.8440,14621.77110,15916,22514.73810.0737.644.53-5.4737.041.2-4.2
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Brent311,21555,88717.96198,33563.7393,00429.88248,45825,71810.3582,61933.25147,46126,81418.18660.048.772.9722.9759.769.6-9.9
10
Bromley309,392239,47877.4048,52215.6860,85619.67248,80633,85813.6182,30433.08151,36832,39421.401600.1131.150.940.9450.647.63.0
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Camden220,33896,93743.9974,28333.7174,29333.72184,87312,5566.7993,45350.55108,96634,72131.86620.069.274.0224.0274.970.64.3
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City of London7,3754,24357.531,57621.372,18229.596,7552914.314,61868.364,7471,89439.9020.0413.873.5623.5675.370.25.1
13
Croydon363,378171,74047.26163,18344.9187,66624.13284,26839,28513.8290,32131.77172,98733,89419.59760.0420.062.0512.0554.358.7-4.4
14
Ealing338,449103,03530.44172,63151.0194,30027.86269,57226,5929.8699,83637.04164,82034,62421.01700.0411.270.3920.3960.467.0-6.6
15
Enfield312,466126,45040.47121,82638.9977,89424.93242,46531,15812.8569,62728.72137,62226,10218.971280.0918.561.7011.7055.858.3-2.5
16
Greenwich254,557133,13052.3095,55537.5470,71927.78199,16323,89612.0066,12033.20117,82124,08120.441100.0921.061.4811.4855.658.1-2.5
17
Hackney246,27089,03036.15111,65345.3485,88534.87195,14517,5008.9781,59141.81118,55629,63825.00530.044.975.8225.8278.572.46.1
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Hammersmith & Fulham182,49381,98944.9358,27131.9363,84534.98152,86310,7257.0275,76549.5699,61826,93327.04800.0812.371.5921.5970.068.21.8
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Haringey254,92688,42434.69100,58339.4676,01629.82202,85617,6858.7282,72740.78124,29629,69423.89530.047.172.6622.6675.669.36.3
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Harrow239,05673,82630.88138,06557.7559,47424.88190,99820,85210.9270,21836.76113,90026,44623.22350.0314.069.1619.1654.665.8-11.2
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Havering237,232197,61583.3029,28312.3450,79821.41192,84432,24116.7237,49819.44112,84615,96014.14970.0943.639.54-10.4630.336.2-5.9
22
Hillingdon273,936142,91652.17107,90539.3971,81826.22217,04330,33613.9860,85428.04130,29022,23717.071090.0826.856.546.5443.653.2-9.6
23
Hounslow253,95796,26437.91123,45248.6172,36128.49202,42423,76711.7469,95534.56127,03223,47218.48700.0617.065.8115.8151.162.4-11.3
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Islington206,12598,32247.7065,61031.8375,60036.68173,30013,9438.0583,27648.05106,76533,38431.27450.049.873.1623.1675.269.85.4
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Kensington & Chelsea158,64962,27139.2546,63229.3944,78228.23134,2677,7305.7670,73152.6881,38719,02523.381230.1514.769.3919.3968.766.02.7
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Kingston upon Thames160,060101,01563.1140,84125.5241,99626.24129,79012,6659.7653,78241.4481,95720,65125.20630.0819.462.7612.7661.659.42.2
27
Lambeth303,086118,25039.02130,06142.91104,92834.62248,30021,1698.53115,75846.62166,49442,83825.73660.047.974.8224.8278.671.47.2
28
Lewisham275,885114,44641.48128,19946.4777,97528.26218,74924,22511.0783,12738.00136,05730,80922.64420.0312.369.3219.3269.965.94.0
29
Merton199,69396,65848.4070,08735.1053,63526.86160,84015,9009.8966,09141.09104,82225,59824.42330.0316.066.2016.2062.962.80.1
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Newham307,98451,51616.73218,76871.03109,85535.67238,09027,15211.4071,77130.14132,45419,66614.85940.078.374.1224.1252.870.7-17.9
31
Redbridge278,97096,25334.50160,32457.4771,76825.73216,11226,43712.2373,29933.92124,69228,54322.89560.0415.967.3517.3554.064.0-10.0
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Richmond upon Thames186,990133,58271.4426,26514.0538,24220.45150,05211,0757.3879,58453.0499,20429,44329.68520.0515.565.5915.5969.362.27.1
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Southwark288,283114,53439.73131,93445.7796,06933.32234,90122,0779.40101,17243.07147,38838,03325.80750.0511.072.2922.2972.868.93.9
34
Sutton190,146134,85470.9240,69721.4041,55421.85152,15821,58814.1945,77530.0897,65818,73119.18870.0927.153.633.6346.350.3-4.0
35
Tower Hamlets254,09679,23131.18139,27754.81104,26441.03203,95318,9289.2883,67541.03120,87331,02625.67350.039.875.0625.0667.571.7-4.2
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Waltham Forest258,24992,99936.01123,45047.8074,29628.77203,13124,93412.2760,91429.99121,02121,63417.88700.0616.265.1415.1459.161.8-2.7
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Wandsworth306,995163,73953.3487,77928.59107,77535.11255,98916,9036.60137,14253.57178,58251,73428.97770.0410.972.9422.9475.069.65.4
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Westminster219,39677,33435.2584,06638.3270,38932.08186,81212,3086.5993,94650.29111,17929,59326.62770.0713.671.4921.4969.068.10.9
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TOTALS8,173,9413,669,28444.893,286,50640.212,342,27428.666,549,173702,68710.732,470,22537.723,998,897898,01822.462,3630.0616.965.7315.7359.962.4-2.5
41
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Greater London:
43
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Counting areas: 33
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Correct prediction: 29
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Incorrect prediction: 4
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48
49
50
51
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West Midlands Region
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54
West Midlands County
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PopWhite British Ethnicity%Non-white%Age 16-32%Residents 16+Level 1 Qualfcs%Level 4 Qualfcs & Above%16-74 in EmploymentProfessionals%Agr, For, Fish%UKIP % 2014 Euro ElectionsRemain prediction if England votes 50/50Compared to 50%Remain % ResultRemain % Prediction adjusted for England result of 46.6% RemainError
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Birmingham1,073,045570,21753.14451,40942.07294,72927.47828,363110,15813.30190,33522.98423,69177,42418.274190.1022.558.578.5749.655.2-5.6
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Coventry316,960211,18866.6382,93126.1689,09628.11254,10633,78213.2958,56623.05137,56022,09316.062590.1926.553.913.9144.450.5-6.1
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Dudley312,925277,05088.5431,31810.0164,15520.50253,42136,28614.3248,58419.17141,99819,88314.001370.1038.442.14-7.8632.438.8-6.4
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Sandwell308,063202,82265.8492,59230.0673,43123.84241,82934,72314.3637,15115.36128,63014,31211.131320.1030.149.47-0.5333.346.1-12.8
60
Solihull206,674177,24885.7622,43010.8539,26119.00167,49322,79013.6147,78328.5397,94119,44619.852000.2032.548.11-1.8943.844.7-0.9
61
Walsall269,323207,23776.9556,85421.1159,43222.07213,12331,11714.6035,98916.89112,27014,17212.621260.1133.646.22-3.7832.142.8-10.7
62
Wolverhampton249,470160,94564.5179,78831.9859,77123.96200,04728,18714.0939,02119.51104,28414,25313.671930.1931.350.190.1937.446.8-9.4
63
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TOTALS2,736,4601,806,70766.02817,32229.87679,87524.852,158,382297,04313.76457,42921.191,146,374181,58315.841,4660.1330.750.930.93
65
66
West Midlands (excl. WM County)
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PopWhite British Ethnicity%Non-white%Age 16-32%Residents 16+Level 1 Qualfcs%Level 4 Qualfcs & Above%16-74 in EmploymentProfessionals%Agr, For, Fish%UKIP % 2014 Euro ElectionsRemain prediction if England votes 50/50Compared to 50%Remain % ResultRemain % Prediction adjusted for England result of 46.6% RemainError
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UnitaryHerefordshire183,477171,92293.703,3081.8033,56218.29151,96219,39612.7641,77927.4990,23713,06614.484,8935.4232.846.50-3.5040.843.1-2.3
69
Shropshire306,129292,04795.406,2552.0456,74518.54252,97933,15813.1169,55827.50150,74823,90615.865,8073.8533.046.34-3.6643.143.00.1
70
Stoke-on-Trent249,008215,22286.4328,29611.3660,55024.32200,64228,82514.3731,04115.47108,10911,32210.471400.1339.741.11-8.8930.637.7-7.1
71
Telford & Wrekin166,641149,09689.4712,2267.3437,42622.46132,44020,05515.1427,71320.9278,37210,91913.937130.9136.243.82-6.1836.840.4-3.6
72
StaffsCannock Chase97,46294,04296.492,2062.2620,64121.1879,02712,88416.3013,60617.2247,4765,26411.091310.2838.840.16-9.8431.136.8-5.7
73
East Staffordshire113,58397,85486.1510,8799.5823,95421.0991,82113,01914.1821,46623.3854,9218,00814.587771.4133.946.01-3.9936.842.6-5.8
74
Lichfield100,65495,26394.643,2553.2318,16518.0583,05711,38813.7123,60428.4249,0169,04318.455501.1235.545.03-4.9741.241.6-0.4
75
Newcastle-under-Lyme123,871115,51093.256,2095.0127,70222.36102,81313,09412.7423,12122.4957,3669,03615.753640.6335.244.61-5.3937.041.2-4.2
76
South Staffordshire108,131102,33994.644,4314.1019,30717.8690,50612,59713.9222,70725.0953,3288,83216.565711.0740.741.13-8.8735.237.8-2.6
77
Stafford130,869121,16092.586,5615.0125,95619.83108,62613,80412.7132,88730.2864,49412,28419.051,1311.7533.247.52-2.4844.044.1-0.1
78
Staffordshire Moorlands97,10694,65797.481,2811.3216,40516.8981,10610,40612.8319,25523.7447,5917,00814.731,1342.3836.742.70-7.3035.339.3-4.0
79
Tamworth76,81372,98495.022,0522.6716,79821.8761,46710,71317.4310,70617.4238,2814,41711.54740.1934.742.78-7.2232.539.4-6.9
80
WarksNorth Warwickshire62,01459,49995.941,3052.1011,32518.2651,0497,80015.2810,09619.7831,2584,06012.993521.1339.340.23-9.7733.136.8-3.7
81
Nuneaton & Bedworth125,252111,37988.9210,8608.6726,59421.23101,24415,82915.6318,80118.5760,2057,71212.811180.2032.845.11-4.8934.041.7-7.7
82
Rugby100,07584,21084.159,5109.5020,27620.2680,68910,70713.2722,73528.1850,4858,91417.664450.8829.349.91-0.0943.346.5-3.2
83
Stratford-on-Avon120,485112,78093.613,1782.6419,22515.96100,04211,97111.9733,39633.3860,76511,24518.511,4082.3229.649.47-0.5348.446.12.3
84
Warwick137,648114,73983.3614,93310.8533,27624.17114,05111,53910.1243,83638.4469,60817,36524.953390.4922.957.467.4658.854.14.7
85
WorcsBromsgrove93,63787,64093.603,9414.2116,09417.1977,1079,87512.8123,55130.5446,2519,73721.053070.6635.645.63-4.3744.642.32.3
86
Malvern Hills74,63171,01995.161,7902.4011,66915.6462,2196,95711.1821,11333.9334,3617,00620.399772.8431.448.64-1.3647.845.32.5
87
Redditch84,21473,59187.396,7177.9819,00722.5767,65610,68315.7914,00720.7042,9225,62513.111780.4136.243.77-6.2337.740.4-2.7
88
Worcester98,76888,01689.116,4746.5524,37324.6880,29110,23512.7522,21127.6650,1019,07818.121220.2428.750.390.3946.347.0-0.7
89
Wychavon116,944109,83493.922,4872.1319,32516.5397,03912,69413.0827,87028.7258,2689,41016.151,4912.5635.144.98-5.0242.141.60.5
90
Wyre Forest97,97592,82294.742,7022.7617,87418.2481,19011,55314.2317,91622.0746,3396,26213.513370.7336.642.50-7.5036.939.1-2.2
91
92
TOTALS2,865,3872,627,62591.70150,8565.26576,24920.112,349,023319,18213.59592,97525.241,390,502219,51915.7922,3591.6123.951.681.68
93
94
TOTALS (West Midlands Region)5,601,8474,434,33279.16968,17817.281,256,12422.424,507,405585,81013.001,050,40423.302,536,876401,10215.8123,8250.9431.548.83-1.1740.745.5-4.8
95
96
West Midlands:
97
98
Counting areas: 30
99
Correct prediction: 28
100
Incorrect prediction: 2
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