Juan Zabala|SD

Zabala is a twitchy little catcher with above-average bat speed that requires a lot of effort to get to. This has resulted in a pretty considerable A-ball strikeout rate. Zabala is an excellent receiver and framer, presenting borderline pitches to umpires with quiet precision. You would think a smaller, quick-twitch catcher like Zabala would have a lightning-fast exchange, but he often double clutches and takes forever to get rid of the baseball. His raw arm strength is fine, but he needs to be quicker and more consistent out of his crouch. The bat speed, overall athleticism, and some of the defensive components here are exciting enough to value Zabala like a future 40-man catcher.

Peyton Alford|SEA

Alford has a left-handed invisiball, a riding 93 mph ghost that has dominated High-A hitters so far in 2023. Alford was essentially demoted from Arkansas to Everett in June of last year because his walks were out of control, but he's slowly tamped them down and has been great so far this season. Like a short-levered Colin Poche, Alford hides the ball forever and then has a short, vertical arm stroke that imparts backspinning axis on his heater. His smaller stature and T-Rex arms help him to have a low release height, so his fastball has uphill angle as it approaches the plate. All of these traits together make his fastball really hard to get on top of. Fold in an average curveball and you have a solid lefty reliever. Alford also has a changeup, but his arm slot is totally different when he throws it and that's not gonna cut it at the big league level. He hasn't been a competent strike thrower for very long, and it's possible this is a blip and Alford regresses. That's priced into his FV, rounding down what is otherwise a 40 FV mix.

Max Kuhns|PHI

A Mets draft pick in 2016, Kuhns was beset by injuries and only pitched eight combined innings in 2018 and 2019 when New York released him. He resurfaced during the 2022-23 offseason in Mexico, where Kuhns was pumping mid-90s gas for Mayos de Navojoa. The Phillies signed him not long before the start of 2023 spring training and he pitched in one Grapefruit League game, sitting 94-96 mph while bending in one mid-80s slider. Kuhns' slider consistency in Mexico was mixed and he utilizes an extremely fastball-heavy approach to pitching. He and the Phillies will need to find a viable second offering, but if they can and Kuhns (who is starting 2023 with Reading) can reach the big leagues, it will make for one hell of a story.

Zach Vennaro|MIL

Another Indy Ball find for the Brewers, Vennaro was signed after pitching in the Can Am League, and it took extra time for his career to get off of the ground because of the pandemic. After toiling away in the mid-minors for a couple of years, Vennaro showed a nearly three-tick velo boost during the spring of 2023, his fastball moving from 93-95 mph into the 95-98 mph range. To call his delivery funky doesn't do it justice. If Adam Cimber's delivery is George Porter Jr., Vennaro's is Les Claypool. He gets deep into his rear leg and strides open as his arm swings with huge length all the way behind his body before he delivers from a sidearm slot. He's throwing 96 or so with huge tail and sink, and very little feel for location. Command issues and Vennaro's lack of a pitch to deal with opposite-handed hitters limits him to an up/down forecast, but he has uncommonly nasty stuff for that sort of role.

Dennis Boatman|CIN

Boatman committed to UCLA pretty early in high school and hadn't yet developed a reliable ability to throw strikes by the time he actually reached college. The UCLA coaching staff asked him to shift to a JUCO and polish things up before returning to UCLA later in his career. Partially because of the pandemic, Boatman never made it there, pitching parts of two seasons at Sacramento City College before being drafted. He had a velo spike at Sac City and held that throughout his first full season in pro ball, sitting 94-96 mph across about 45 innings of work. Boatman is a broad-shouldered 6-foot-5, and because his velocity is still fairly new and he's such a long-levered athlete, better feel for locating his fastball may still be coming; it currently induces a lot of groundballs. He needs to find a more consistent secondary pitch, and even though he used it less than his slider in 2022, his changeup is perhaps his best shot at having a second major league-quality offering.

Dugan Darnell|COL

After he was finished pitching at Division-III Adrian College, Darnell pitched in a few independent leagues and worked as a mortgage loan officer (according to his LinkedIn) until he signed with the Rockies in 2021. He has struck out more than a batter per inning since debuting in affiliated ball and has reached Double-A Hartford, where he's continuing to strike out plenty of upper-level hitters in 2023. Darnell will touch 97 mph and the uphill angle of his fastball helps it miss bats. His splitter's movement varies from pitch to pitch, at times looking like a slider, at others like a true splitter, and sometimes it just sort of floats toward the plate and still garners an uncomfortable swing. This guy has carved a unique path to the upper levels of the minors and is going to pitch in the big leagues.

Eduarniel Nunez|CHC

Nunez is the second-hardest thrower in the entire org behind Daniel Palencia. Emphasis on "thrower," because his command is not good. He may also have the best curveball in the entire org, a mid-80s yakker with tight, late break and bat-missing depth. His lack of command really hamstrings the effectiveness of both pitches, and the 24-year-old Nunez has worked just 14 innings above A-ball since turning pro in 2017. He's throwing 100 and has maybe a 70-grade curveball, but even though his walks are way down this year compared to last, he's still only been okay.

Anderson Paulino|KC

Paulino has a heavy upper-90s sinker and a really hard slider in the 88-91 mph band. His slider doesn't have bat-missing length, but its late movement keeps it off the barrel and is another way for him to induce weak contact. He's been spinning his wheels at High-A for the last couple of years, but Paulino's arm speed, frame, and ability to get a groundball makes him an interesting six-year minor league free agent candidate who might find something more with a change of scenery.

Tanner Kiest|SF

Kiest has been at it for nearly a decade. He was a 28th round pick of the Phillies in 2014 and was released after two seasons. After a few years away from affiliated ball, he signed with the Twins in 2018 and pitched just 14 innings at Cedar Rapids before he was released again. Since then, he's pitched in Mexico and Independent ball, and the Giants added him to their system at the very end of May. Kiest is working in the mid-to-upper-90s with hair on it, and he'll occasionally show you an above-average slider. His control is pretty fringy and finding release consistency will be key to his journey continuing through the upper minors.

Joey Stock|BOS

Yes, Stock is 25 and only in High-A, but present stuff and roster flexibility rule the day for pitching prospects, and the 2020 undrafted free agent from Division-III St. John's still has through 2024 to continue to develop and bring his vertical fastball/curveball combo to the upper-levels and majors. Stock has a prototypical pitcher's build at a broad-shouldered 6-foot-5, and his overhand delivery imparts big riding life on a 92-94 fastball that will touch 96. He had a pretty standard fastball/curveball combo in 2022 and has added a more curt, lateral slider in 2023. The pitch isn't great yet, but there's late projection across the board here because of Stock's small school, cold-weather background. He's blowing away High-A and should get a midsummer bump to Portland to see if his ride and deception will play against more advanced hitters. Here I'm projecting Stock as an up/down relief piece. There isn't a blow-you-away secondary yet, but the fastball is going to play.

Yosber Sanchez|DET

Released by Texas in the fall of 2022, Sanchez showed huge arm strength in Florida for his new club throughout 2023. He routinely sits 94-97 mph, sometimes with close to 20 inches of vertical movement. Built like a catcher, Sanchez and the Tigers are tasked with finding mechanical consistency so he isn't walking nearly six batters per nine going forward. His mid-80s breaking ball has good depth but not especially sharp bite. If even one thing (better control or a better curveball) develops here, we're looking at a solid reliever.

Termarr Johnson|PIT

Johnson was a well-regarded prospect basically as soon as he reached high school, and there were scouts who were so excited when they first watched him hit that they considered him a future top 5-10 pick when he was only a freshman. He ultimately went fourth overall to Pittsburgh, and because he's a relatively advanced hitter with a mature build, there's a good chance the Pirates move Johnson through the minors pretty quickly if he hits the ground running offensively.
Johnson's swing bears some mechanical resemblance to Bryce Harper’s, especially its lower half usage and finish. Johnson often ends his swing with his torso having made a full 180 degree rotation, sometimes swinging with such ferocious bat speed that he loses his balance and faceplants in the batter's box. He has a pronounced bat wrap. When an opposing pitcher releases the ball, the scoop in Johnson’s bat head is pointing at the mound with his back elbow hiked way up above his shoulder in a position that seems to defy the rules of normal human physiology. Short but not small, his lack of length and size is actually an advantage for Johnson's swing, as he can enjoy a bat path geared for power and lift without it being too long. While especially adept at launching pitches on the inner third, Johnson also shows some ability to shorten up and cover the top and outer edge of the strike zone. He showed a tendency to expand the zone and make some sub-optimal contact as an amateur and in his 2022 pro sample, but there are times when Johnson does this and rather than frustrate scouts and analysts, he impresses them with his ability to identify and adjust to breaking balls, his barrel feel, and his hand-eye coordination. Most of his swings and misses over the last few years have been on fastballs running away from him, but in 2022, he displayed a more advanced ability to poke the barrel at balls on the outer edge of the plate, extending his short levers in an effort to slap outside pitches the other way.
Defensively, he has mostly played second base so far in his professional career, with just a handful of starts at short. He's a good enough defender that he'd probably being playing shortstop had he ended up at Arizona State, but in pro ball the keystone is Johnson's likeliest defensive home given his maxed-out, stocky build and what projects to be somewhat limited range. There's an All-Star-caliber hit and power combination here, and while a bigger pro data sample might reveal some approach-related issues, Johnson has been one of the best hitters his age for going on a half decade and feels like a relatively high-probability high school hitting prospect. If he does end up having relevant chase issues, he might track like a left-handed hitting Brendan Rodgers, but Johnson's makeup and personality are so universally lauded that it's fair to expect him to make relevant adjustments and become a key cog on Pittsburgh's next competitive team.

Chase Dollander|COL

Dollander sat 93-95 mph as a freshman at Georgia Southern, then started throwing harder as a sophomore after he had transferred to Tennessee. Throughout 2022 and 2023, he sat 94-97 with riding life and would frequently top out in the 98-99 range. Dollander's hard cutter/slider looks more like the latter the deeper into games he pitches. As that pitch slows down from the 87-89 mph range to the 84-86 mph band throughout a start, it tends to add length and have more typical slider shape. An upper-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup sit in the back seat together; each had less than 10% usage in 2022 and combined for just 14% usage in 2023. Those pitches are going to have to be leaned on more in pro ball — Dollander's fastball is good, but not so good that he'll be able to deploy it 65% of the time (his 2023 mark) against big leaguers. Dollander's arm speed portends changeup growth, but the ones he throws now tend to sail on him. His curveball has distinct shape from his slider and has fine depth for an upper-70s curve, Dollander just doesn't consistently land his location with this pitch either. He barely walked anyone as a sophomore even though he was throwing harder and threw 30 more innings than the season before, but he wasn't as dominant as a junior. His BB/9 doubled and he became much more hittable, his WHIP ballooning from .797 to 1.24, which is still good but not top-of-the-draft good. He's still likely to go around pick 10, give or take, and projects as a no. 4 starter despite having a little less repertoire polish than the usual premium college arm.

Rhett Lowder|CIN

Lowder's performance steadily improved throughout his college career, which ended with a bang. He went 15-0 in 17 starts prior to the College World Series and posted a sub-1.00 WHIP and sub-2.00 ERA. He brings mid-90s heat and two plus secondaries to the party, and is likely to be one of the first few pitchers drafted in July.
There are real questions about his fastball's playability even though it sits 93-95 mph and will touch 97 early in outings, because it's sinking action seems to run right into barrels. Lowder's fastball has utility running back over the glove-side corner and as a chase pitch off the plate to Lowder's arm side, but it looks like it might be very vulnerable in the zone against big league hitters as it's currently constituted. Some pitchers with fastballs like this have been able to lean into their ability to sink the baseball, and there are aspects of Lowder's delivery that evoke Logan Webb, who has a style of sinker that might work for Lowder. His changeup and slider both miss bats, especially his changeup, though he uses his slider more. The cambio has huge trapdoor action, bottoming out with some arm-side run as it approaches the plate. Lowder can run this back across the plate in the same way he does his fastball, and it's an effective upper-80s weapon against hitters of both-handedness. His slider is less nasty but still has impressive length for a pitch that bends in around 85-87 mph. His feel for locating the slider is more consistent than any of his other pitches, and offers some early-count insurance in the event that his fastball is in fact vulnerable in pro ball.
A gangly, unspectacular athlete with a theatrical, cross-bodied delivery, Lowder clearly works hard to keep his somewhat awkward frame in great shape. His bow-legged front side and the stiffness in his hips and lower back contribute to a funky operation that aids in deception, but is atypical for a big league starter. While not a complete prospect, Lowder looks like a quick moving no. 4/5 starter who has a shot to really pop if he can put some hair on the chest of his fastball.

Osleivis Basabe|TB

Poised to play a multi-positional infield role in the big leagues relatively soon, Basabe makes an over-aggressive approach and high-effort swing work via his fantastic hand-eye coordination and bat control, which have made him a .316/.375..434 career hitter in the minors. He takes such wild full-body hacks that sometimes he looks like he's going to faceplant in the batter's box, but Basabe finds all sorts of funky ways to put the bat on the baseball, usually in the form of high infield choppers and opposite-field line drives. We're talking about a 91% Z-contact rate in 2022, a 70 on the scale. Almost completely lacking over-the-fence power (he has just eight career homers in four seasons), Basabe is like a boxer who beats you with nothing but jabs. He's passable at shortstop but a better fit at third and second base, where he makes acrobatic plays through sheer effort, and his lightning-quick transfer makes him especially good at fielding high choppers that he has to get rid of quickly, which third base sees most often. He'll probably carve out a 250-ish plate appearance role with the Rays within the next few years.

Walbert Urena|LAA

Urena is still mostly an arm strength dev project who is running an ERA over 9.00 at Inland Empire as of list publication. He routinely sits 94-97 mph and tops out at 99-100, but he's only throwing strikes with his fastballs about 58% of the time. There isn't obvious, low-hanging mechanical fruit to pick here. Urena's delivery is already simple and his arm action is already pretty short, he just needs to improve his feel for location with reps. While he'll occasionally flash a plus changeup (some of them have ridiculous tailing action) and curveball (big depth), his feel for those pitches is also sushi raw. His control needs to improve by a couple of grades for him to be a big leaguer at all, and of course Urena is much more likely to get there as a reliever. His fastball might be even harder in single-inning outings, and as a reliever, only one of the two secondaries would need to improve. He should be developed as a starter for as long as possible to give him more reps. There is indeed potential impact here because of Urena's rare arm strength, but it's tough to grade him in an impact FV tier right now because of how undercooked everything else is.

Ben Kudrna|KC

Though he was Kansas City's 2021 second round pick, Kudrna only got $500,000 less than first rounder Frank Mozzicato and was about as talented, albeit in different ways. Kudrna had more present ability, threw harder, and had a more mature changeup. Counterbalancing that was his relative physical maturity: he was already big and strong, and had less room to add mass and (theoretically) velocity than the prototypical high school pitching prospect. Also like Mozzicato (the two are linked by their draft class and will always be compared), Kudrna has mostly stayed the same since entering pro ball; he had only a fair pro debut in 2022 and was sent back to Low-A to start 2023. He has a well-balanced delivery and generates 92-94 mph heat, touching 96 without effective movement. He'll likely always have a vulnerable fastball because of its shape and plane, but Kudrna's secondary stuff carries a lot of water. He creates sink and tailing action on his changeup and is willing to use it against righties, and Kudrna's slider command is consistent, which allows it to play even though it isn't especially nasty. Two good secondaries and a big, strapping, inning-eating frame should enable him to pitch at the back of a rotation, and there might be another gear of fastball command yet to arrive that would allow for a slightly better outcome.

Jorge Ruiz|LAA

Ruiz is a small-statured bat control savant with incredible plate coverage. His swing is evocative of Eddie Rosario's, especially the way his hands stay back and adjust to breaking balls, and his ability to spray outer third fastballs the other way even though he tends to step in the bucket when he strides. Hitters with ultra-compact builds and swings like this are typically able to turn on just about anything, but Ruiz actually struggles with inner-half fastballs right now. If he can get stronger, perhaps he can be more direct to heaters in this area. Ruiz has mostly been playing left field for Inland Empire in 2023 in deference to Nelson Rada, but he played a lot of center on the complex in 2022. I've timed him in the 4.2s from home to first this year, which is about average for a left-handed hitter, probably not enough to play center. As a corner bat without power, Ruiz needs something approaching Steven Kwan-like bat control to be an everyday player. He's very skilled for an 18-year-old and stands a chance to attain something like that, though his swing-happy approach is going to add a degree of difficulty to that pursuit.

Patrick Monteverde|MIA

Monteverde began his college career at Division III Virginia Wesleyan before transferring to D-II Seton Hill, where he lost most of 2019 (his junior year) to Tommy John surgery and 2020 to the pandemic. As a fifth-year grad transfer, he went to Texas Tech and struck out 101 batters in 86 innings despite only sitting 88-90 mph. Monteverde still only throws about that hard, but his short, vertical arm stroke is of the Clayton Kershaw phylum and helps his fastball sneak past hitters at the top of the strike zone. After feasting off his changeup in college, Monteverde has made changes to his seldom-used slider, which is now more of a cutter in the 84-85 mph range and up to 87, three ticks harder than he showed in 2022. He now has four distinct pitches and a very repeatable delivery. In the Tommy Milone mold, Monteverde is a high-probability fifth starter who's rocketing through the minors.

Jonathan Mejia|STL

One of the top 2022 international amateur prospects, Mejia is a medium-framed, switch-hitting shortstop with advanced feel for contact. He tracks pitches well from both sides of the plate, has a relatively compact swing (his lefty cut is more athletic and powerful right now) and is already pretty strong for an 18-year-old. While we're not talking about a prospect with huge, overt power projection, Mejia's feel for contact should enable him to get to whatever raw power he ends up with, and he's a high-probability long-term shortstop. Mejia slashed .267/.418/.479 in the 2022 DSL and began 2023 in extended spring training before he was promoted to Palm Beach just before list publication. It will probably take a while, but Mejia has the all-around skill set to be an everyday shortstop.

Christopher Larez|NYM

Larez signed for $1.5 million in January and is an athletic, well-rounded, righty-hitting infielder with a decent shot to stay at shortstop. His defensive footwork and hands are great and he has just enough arm for the left side of the infield. Because he's more compact than the big-framed, longer-levered teenage prospects, he lacks overt power projection and will likely have to make a superlative rate of contact to project as an everyday player. Larez's hitting hands are quick, but his swing looks relatively grooved. He's much more likely to turn into a solid utilityman than he is to really blow up and be a star.

Leandro Arias|BAL

On paper, Arias didn't have a mind-blowing 2022, his first pro season. Despite signing for only $600,000, he was one of the more highly-ranked international amateurs from the 2022 class because of his glove, switch-hitting feel for contact, and projectable frame. The skills foundation Arias presented (and still presents) is the sort that might break out if he starts getting stronger. He only slashed .217/.344/.306 in the DSL, but his underlying hit-tracking data is better than that, grading around a 45 in all facets of hitting. Set to turn 18 just a few days after initial list publication, it's too soon to reposition Arias from an FV standpoint, and he should still be considered one of the better long-term prospects in the system thanks to his defense and well-rounded offensive skill set. His physicality is the key variable to watch develop over the next calendar year or two.

Karson Milbrandt|MIA

Milbrandt comes straight out of prep arm central casting as a broad-shouldered, 6-foot-2 pitcher with impressive arm strength and raw breaking ball quality. He signed for just shy of $1.5 million in the 2022 third round rather than head to Vanderbilt. So far in 2023, he's holding big league average velocity throughout his starts and touching 96-97 mph at times, though neither his fastball nor his good-looking, two-planed low-80s curveball is generating a ton of swing-and-miss right now. The movement of those two pitches mirrors one another in such a way that it should give righties fits when Milbrandt dials in his feel for locating them. Right now the timing and consistency of his arm stroke can come and go, and it can take an inning or two for him to find it before he settles in. Because we're not talking about a nice, loose, short arm stroke here, it's tough to project heavily on Milbrandt's command and his changeup, which is a glorified upper-80s sinker right now. There's a right tail starter outcome here, one that involves Milbrandt developing a third pitch and polishing the movement on his fastball so it isn't so hittable even though it's hard. But especially if Milbrandt's fastball shape doesn't change and needs help from big velocity in order to play against big league hitters, an eventual fastball/breaking ball relief role is more likely.

Dominic Hamel|NYM

After he struggled early in 2022, Hamel turned a corner in June and was dominant through the middle of the summer with St. Lucie. He earned a mid-year promotion to Brooklyn and struck out 145 batters in just 119 innings across the entire 2022 slate. The Mets didn't bother sending him back to Brooklyn to start 2023 and shipped Hamel straight to Binghamton, where he's again striking out more than a batter per inning while walking enough hitters to remain in starter/reliever limbo.
Hamel has a riding low-90s fastball and two good breaking balls. While his heater plays best at the letters, his natural release tends to cause it to finish down and to his arm side. Ideally, Hamel will polish up his fastball location in his mid-20s. Automatic pitch tagging can sometimes conflate his sliders and curveballs because some of his sliders have huge vertical depth. Though his slider doesn't finish down and away from the zone with great consistency, it's nasty enough that the ones that back up can still freeze hitters. Hamel's mid-70s rainbow curveball (it sits 73-77; the sliders sometimes have curveball shape but are consistently 80 mph and above) has cartoonish depth and is tough for hitters to square even if they spot it popping out of his hand. After his changeup usage spiked to 13% in 2022, it's back down in the 5% range to start 2023 and remains a below-average pitch. Hamel's tendency to locate his fastball down and to his arm side would actually help set up his changeup as a finishing pitch if he threw it more. There's enough happening here for Hamel to project as a lower-impact member of a big league staff within the next couple of years, a backend starter if his command sharpens a bit and a long reliever if it doesn't.

Drake Baldwin|ATL

A patient (bordering on passive) left-handed hitting catcher with power, Baldwin signed for just south of $700,000 as the Braves third rounder in 2022. He slashed .318/.426/.549 throughout his college career in Springfield, had as many walks as strikeouts, and posted a 51% hard-hit rate (Missouri State plays in the same stadium as the Cardinals Double-A team, so it's fitted with all the tech) in a pretty sizable sample as a junior. He is still a work in progress on defense, especially as the Braves have drastically altered some stylistic elements of his receiving, most notably paring down Baldwin's footwork and putting him more regularly on one knee. Baldwin is still getting feel for how to exit his new "crouch" on throws down to second base while maintaining a consistent arm stroke. He has the toughness and athleticism to stick, though, which is especially evident in his high-effort ball-blocking. Even though he's a college draftee, Baldwin is likely to be a developmental prospect. His swing is a little high and stiff in the lower half, and he tends to swing over the top of pitches that finish low in the zone, so he may end up having a power and OBP-driven offensive skill set if it turns out his plate discipline is real (early on, pro scouts have been skeptical). If everything comes together maybe we're talking about a primary catcher here, but we think Baldwin will more likely be a bat-first backup.

Barrett Kent|LAA

Central casting prep arm from Texas with relatively mature 6-foot-4 frame. Sitting 96-97 mph early in some starts, then throttling down into the 92-94 range. Not a ton of projection. Low-spin slider generates tepid visual grades from scouts, has blunt movement but is hard, sometimes 85-87. Mid-80s changeup has projection because Kent's arm stroke is clean and repeatable. Would ideally have a better breaking ball foundation entering pro ball but could be inning-eating backend guy.

Josh Stephan|TEX

Stephan is another of several good undrafted free agents in this system. He's throwing his plus slider over 40% of the time and it's pretty comfortably his most used pitch. He has precise east/west command of his fastball and slider, and he walked just 5% of opposing hitters at High-A in 2023, earning a second half promotion to Frisco. It's plausible he could succeed as a starter with this slider-heavy approach, but he'll need to find more consistent command of his changeup. It has bat-missing sink, but Stephan's feel for locating it isn't as steady as his slider/fastball feel. Here I have him projected as a multi-inning bridge like a Josh Fleming, a role I think is better suited for this kind of breaker-heavy approach.

Tirso Ornelas|SD

Ornelas' swing has undergone several changes in an effort to help him get to his power in games, and while that's never quite happened, he's still a lefty stick who is hitting the ball hard and often. He's a Billy McKinney type.

Roc Riggio|NYY

Rigio became famous when he committed to UCLA ridiculously early, when he was in 8th grade. He didn't end up going to UCLA and instead matriculated to Oklahoma State where he hit very well for two years as Riggio embraced a sort of grinder/heel persona at OSU. He ended up slashing .316/.438/.601 in two seasons for the Cowboys. Lefty-hitting infielders with this kind of bat speed are uncommon, and Riggio is no slouch as a defender, either, even though he is likely limited to 2B alone. A lack of plate coverage and barrel control is a biproduct of the effort with which Riggio swings. While he sports hit tool risk, there are some Rougie Odor similarities here.

Sean Sullivan|COL

Sullivan is an ultra-deceptive cross-bodied lefty with a rise/run heater. His stride direction takes him toward the first base line at an extreme angle, and this, in concert with his low three-quarters slot, makes him very deceptive; it takes hitters a few looks at him to get comfortable. He does most of his swing-and-miss damage with a low-90s fastball that averaged 90 mph across all of 2023 but was sitting more 90-94 during his postseason starts. His repertoire is fastball-heavy in the extreme at about 75% usage, which isn't sustainable in pro ball. His slider's length helps the 77-81 mph pitch play left-on-left; his changeup (80-84 mph) often has slider look due to its angle. There aren't any big league starters who look like this, and it's more likely that Sullivan is a low-leverage long man or second lefty coming out of the bullpen.

Hiro Wyatt|KC

Wyatt is a somewhat undersized righty with a fairly violent delivery. He dominated Connecticut high school baseball with a mid-90s heater that touched 97 and a plus slider. Wyatt looked good at the Combine despite not showing peak velo. His size and mechanical violence are bullpen indicators, or possible signs that the stuff Wyatt showed during the spring of 2023 will not sustain itself, kind of like Deivi Garcia. Despite the heightened risk beyond what's usually associated with a prep pitcher, Wyatt has a million dollar arm and breaking ball, and could have two plus pitches at peak.

Yordanny Monegro|BOS

Monegro was the best Red Sox pitching prospect I saw during extended spring training looks in Florida. He's a little older than the typical arm from the complex group, but he's still projectable at a high-waited 6-foot-4. He sat 91-94 mph and was up to 95, with vertical ride and command that will surely allow him to have success at the lowest pro levels. He has a clean, direct line to the plate and lovely hip/shoulder separation that, along with his frame, portends more velocity. An upper-70s curveball with solid average depth and a power-action changeup that he throws as hard as 91 mph round out the repertoire. It's a starter's mix with a starter's frame, delivery, and strike-throwing. His ceiling will be dictated by how much velo he and the Red Sox can develop, and he's far enough away from the bigs that it has to alter how he's valued here, but Monegro has fourth starter upside.

Pablo Aliendo|CHC

Aliendo is an athletic and angular catcher who badly needs to improve his receiving and ball-blocking. He has an absolute hose, often popping sub-1.80 seconds on throws to second base. Aliendo also has a power-over-hit profile on offense. His uppercut swing produces big pull-side pop for a young catcher, but he's extremely vulnerable to sliders. This is a watered down Jorge Alfaro skill set with a long-term, bat-first backup fit.

McCade Brown|COL

Brown enjoyed a velocity uptick between his freshman and sophomore years at Indiana and sat 92-96 mph before the COVID shutdown. He retained that velo into the fall of 2020, sitting 92-96 at Hoosiers autumn workouts and scrimmages. Brown fell toward the bottom of that range the following spring, averaging about 92-93 and peaking at 97 rather than living near it. It was his first full year of pitching after he had thrown just six combined innings as an underclassman. His ERA was inflated by the Cal League hitting environment in 2022, but Brown struck out a 118 batters in 90 innings, mostly with his two great breaking balls. He was shut down late in the year with elbow soreness and had surgery in April of 2023.
Brown's ticket to the big leagues is his curveball, an upper-70s jawn with a power pitcher's shape. His delivery isn't overtly violent, but Brown has never had great touch-and-feel fastball command. There are a couple potential avenues for Brown if you want to use some of the lack of innings/geographic components he shares with Rock as a reason to round up on his strike-throwing projection. More likely, Brown eventually moves to the bullpen, where he'll again sit in the mid-90s and become a nasty reliever.

Santiago Suarez|TB

Suarez pitched 39 very efficient innings in the 2022 DSL with Miami and then was traded to Tampa Bay in the offseason 40-man crunch deal for Xavier Edwards. He enjoyed a two-tick fastball bump in 2022 and now sits 90-94 mph with feel for a firm, mid-80s changeup and a true 76-79 mph curveball. He's been up to 96 during 2023 extended spring training and is one of a couple of young pitching prospects from that complex group who has a long-term chance to start. Because he's of medium build, there isn't overt physical projection here, so we may only be talking about a moderate long-term ceiling, but polished command and secondary pitch quality give Suarez an uncommon floor for a teenage arm.

Jairo Pomares|SF

Pomares has had a plethora of injury issues during his pro career, most recently leg and back injuries that have kept him out for the first half of 2023; he began rehabbing on the complex not long before list publication. Pomares is still a prospect because of his power, but he struck out a whopping 32% of the time in 2022, his second straight dramatic uptick in Ks upon promotion to a new level. His z-contact% was in Joey Gallo and Sam Hilliard territory, which is a red flag when it's happening against A-ball arms instead of big leaguers. But Pomares has big power and gets to it consistently via the lift in his swing. He can spray wall-threatening fly balls to all fields with the flick of his wrists and he has 34 bombs in about 170 full-season games, most all of them before he turned 22. As a left field defender with a hit tool this flimsy, the hope is that Pomares can be a 45 FV platoon bat, but his contact rates suggest there's enough bust risk to round that projection down.

Kohl Franklin|CHC

Franklin missed 2020 due to the pandemic and all of 2021 with oblique and shoulder strains. He returned in 2022 and worked 69 innings across 23 starts, struggling with walks while showing his usual 93-94 mph fastball and plus changeup. Franklin's performance didn't compel the Cubs to add him to their 40-man after the season, and they actually sent him back to High-A to start 2023. Franklin's strikeout rate is up and he was promoted to Double-A in mid-May. His command and breaking ball quality are still not quite at a big league starter's level, but Franklin's fastball/changeup combo should play, especially the cambio, which has enough action to miss a bat even when Franklin doesn't locate it. Even though the breaking balls aren't great, having them gives Franklin weapons to work more than one inning at a time.

Deivi Garcia|CHW

García's command/control regressed in 2021 and hasn't rebounded, as he again struggled badly with walks in 2022. He has never both been healthy and thrown an above-average rate of strikes at the same time, and his walk issues have trended in the wrong direction as he's climbed the minor league ladder. Now García (who was given an extra option year due to missed time) is competing for one of the last Opening Day spots in the Yankees bullpen with Albert Abreu (optionless) and Clarke Schmidt (who has one option remaining). García's velocity has waxed and waned over the last couple of seasons, dipping into the 92-93 mph range for most of 2021-22. He was throwing harder out of the gate to start 2023 spring training, sitting 94-96 out of the bullpen and living off his heater's upshot angle rather than actual riding life. He has a fairly new cutter that seems to have replaced the rainbow mid-70s curveball García used to throw about 10% of the time. García has the athleticism to, over time, find a second plus pitch that would enable him to stick in a big league bullpen. It's encouraging that he came out throwing hard again to start 2023, but as of this moment, he's a fastball-only reliever whose secondary stuff is in flux, at least partially because he's been hurt and lost reps.

Chase Hampton|NYY

A belief held here at FanGraphs is that Texas Tech is among the college programs that recruits talented pitchers but doesn't do a great job of developing them, as pro teams tend to help Red Raiders make pretty significant leaps after they sign. Hampton is perhaps the latest. He sat 91-94 mph during his final year in Lubbock, part of a four-pitch mix that the walk-prone draft-eligible sophomore used to strike out 72 batters in 56 innings. More than his pure stuff, Hampton is interesting from a mechanical standpoint. His lower half is balanced and powerful, and it helps him maintain an athletic drop-and-drive delivery, which creates flat angle on his fastball. The Yankees shut him down after the draft, and when Hampton made his pro debut during big league spring training the following year, he came out throwing three ticks harder than he had in college; he sat 94-96 and was working with a mid-80s cutter that was much harder than his college breaking balls. He was coming off prolonged rest and probably amped up to pitch in a big league game, but Hampton appears to have breakout potential now that he's throwing harder, and the track record of pitchers leaving Tech and improving is long enough at this point to anticipate it will happen for Hampton, too.

Joe Perez|PIT

Perez has begun to play both outfield corners in addition to his usual third base, he's on pace to see more action at first than ever before, and he's even played a couple of games at second. Perez is a 40-grade defender at third and has some arm accuracy issues there. It's important that his third base defense tighten up, and also pretty important that a couple of these other positions end up panning out. He has enough playable power to be a 40 FV four-corners guy if they do. Remember that Perez missed a ton of early-career reps due to a TJ and shoulder surgery. He is as svelte and mobile now as he ever has been (much more so than when he was in high school) and has really only begun to branch out on defense. There's a chance he breaks a little late as a useful bench piece.

Landon Marceaux|NYM

Marceaux is still only sitting about 90 mph, but his secondaries are all pretty good and he commands them well enough to profile as a spot starter. Breaking ball shape and depth are Marceaux's most impressive traits, and even though they don't have especially different shapes, the gap in speed between his curveball and slider gives hitters different looks. His changeup has also taken a step forward in pro ball. He is currently in the Double-A rotation and is near-ready injury depth.

Grant Anderson|TEX

Traded from Seattle to Texas for Connor Sadzeck way back in 2019, Anderson has percolated in the upper minors for the last couple of seasons and made his big league debut just before list publication. He's a sinker/slider sidearm reliever with stuff that is a little more curt than your usual side-armer, but also more firm. He'll sit 93-94 with sink and tail, while his slider is arguably more of a cutter at 84-86 mph. His command of the slider is especially precise; Anderson locates it in a spot just off the zone, where it tempts hitters but isn't really hittable. He's evaluated here as an up/down reliever, but he was so dominant at Triple-A prior to promotion that he may just be an on-roster "look" reliever.

Angel Zerpa|KC

Zerpa was added to the Royals 40-man after the 2020 season and has struggled to find his footing since then in large part due to injuries, not all of them arm-related. In 2023, though, he has been on the shelf with shoulder tendinopathy and returned for a few rehab outings not long before list publication. He's sitting 92-95 mph in those outings and mixing in more two-seamers than before, likely as a means of dealing with suboptimal fastball shape. His heater is pretty vulnerable, but Zerpa throws plenty of strikes, and his slider and changeup are both good enough to consider him a potential backend starter. Because his option years are running out and Zerpa has had trouble building innings, it's more likely he ends up in a long relief role.

Luis Castillo|MIL

A stocky, bowling ball-like build might cause one to overlook Castillo, who lacks the typical frame projection of a teenage hitter. He rakes, though, and is a very loose athlete despite his build. After cruising through complex-level ball, he went to Low-A and hit well there during the last month of the season, and continued his strong showing at instructs. As a left field-only runner, Castillo will need to keep mashing.

Andres Chaparro|ARI

Chaparro would be a very prominent prospect at any other position, but the offensive bar at first base (which some scouts don't even think Chaparro can play) is just so high that he sits below the threshold where it's fair to expect big impact. He can hit, though, and is much more athletic in the batter's box than he is anywhere else. Especially adept at getting on top of high fastballs, Chaparro blends contact and power to do (mostly) pull-side extra base damage. He makes an above-average rate of contact with about average power in a vacuum, which is below average at first base. If given a full season of plate appearances, Chaparro would likely fall in the bottom third of first basemen at the big league level, perhaps with some peak years closer to the middle of the group. He's great upper-level injury depth for the Yankees, and he'll likely keep hitting enough to earn an opportunity with a rebuilding team that wants to see if he can perform against big league pitching, or maybe even play in Japan.

Jay Groome|SD

Groome has turned into a kitchen sink lefty with five pitches (if you count his four- and two-seam fastballs as two different offerings) who mixes in his secondary stuff pretty evenly. His changeup has actually garnered the highest rate of swing and miss at El Paso so far this year. It looked like Groome had a shot to compete for a backend rotation spot during spring training, but instead he's spending his final option year having a walk-prone Triple-A campaign. If he can reclaim the strike-throwing ability he's shown in prior years, he could be a suitable spot starter, but the days of hoping he'd have two dominant breaking balls and a mid-90s heater are gone.

Tanner McDougal|CHW

An over-slot eighth round high schooler from the 2021 draft, McDougal has a big, projectable frame and some present arm strength. His slider is blunt but has length and can be nasty when he finishes it right. The son of former big league reliever and David Roth Special, Mike McDougal, Tanner is a developmental project. He had Tommy John surgery late in October of 2021 and missed the entire '22 season.

Roni Cabrera|KC

Recently acquired from Texas as part of the Aroldis Chapman trade, Cabrera is a 17-year-old outfielder who was repeating the DSL prior to the swap. Cabrera, who turns 18 at the end of July, was young for his signing class and had a rough pro debut on paper in 2022, albeit at age 16. This season has been much better as, at the time of the trade, Cabrera had an OPS well over 1.000. Even though he was young for his class, Cabrera was already quite physical for his age and his 2023 small sample performance is more in line what you'd expect from a hitter who is stronger than most of the rest of the league. He is extremely pull-oriented and is hitting the ball hard with remarkable consistency so far this season, with a 43% hard-hit rate and 14% barrel rate as he makes his way to the Royals. Cabrera's peak exit velos aren't crazy, and his present raw power is more pedestrian than the consistency and quality of contact he's making so far. He strikes me as the sort who has outgrown the DSL and needs to be promoted to the domestic complex to really be challenged. He's an interesting low-level flier with relevant pull-pop and a prototypical corner outfield frame.

Justin Lange|NYY

When Lange's velocity exploded during his senior year of high school, his draft stock did, too. He was 89-93 mph at the Area Code Games the summer after his junior year, up to 95 in the fall, and then came out throwing even harder during his draft spring. He had added considerable muscle and had some spring 2020 starts where he was sitting in the upper-90s. Which teams liked him depended on which start they saw and how data-driven their pitch evaluations are. As some teams pivot toward drafting pitchers with good command of good secondaries and try to develop velocity, Lange was a bit of the opposite. The Padres gave him $2 million in the comp round. He presented the Padres dev group with an elite frame, arm strength, and athleticism, but they didn't have much opportunity to shape his stuff as he dealt with a shoulder and knee issue that limited him to 22 walk-riddled pro innings before he was shipped to New York for Luke Voit just before the 2022 season. Lange had a fair season on the complex, where he punched tickets at a nearly 30% clip, but he struggled with walks and his velocity seems to have settled in the 92-95 mph range.
Lange's secondaries are sushi raw. His fastball tilt isn't ideal, but the velo and angle created by his drop-and-drive delivery will mitigate that. It's breaking ball depth that might be an issue from this arm slot, and Lange currently deploys a mid-80s cutter as his secondary pitch of choice. The Yankees have a track record of coaxing more velocity out of big, well-composed athletes like Lange, but you really have to dream on a breaking ball and Lange's command to see an impact big leaguer here. He's purely a developmental ball of clay at this stage.

Adrian Sugastey|SF

Sugastey moved up to High-A this season, and while he’s hitting and slugging more than he did last year, he’s walking much less and his chase rates have ticked up considerably, nearing 40% as of list publication. But Sugastey is still a young catching prospect with precocious bat-to-ball skills. Aside from his ball-blocking (which is very poor), his defense isn't much worse than the typical 20-year-old catcher's. He isn't especially twitchy, which also applies to Sugastey's look in the batter's box, but our rule of thumb is to let catchers burn slowly, especially if they have a meaningful offensive skill. Sugastey is still more of a hit tool flier at a premium position than he is an actual prospect, though. He's definitely not a postseason 40-man add. Instead, you hope he takes a step next year and pushes for a spot.

Dylan O'Rae|MIL

A Canadian high schooler who signed for a little less than $600,000 in 2022, O'Rae was brought along slowly and kept on the complex to start the 2023 season. After posting a (BABIP-aided) .522 OBP for a couple of months, he was promoted to Low-A Carolina and posted more walks than strikeouts for the better part of a month. He also stole 44 bases on 50 attempts in just 60 games across the two levels. The high-end outcome for O'Rae is a Tony Kemp type player, or maybe Ender Inciarte if his center field defense improves that much. He has experience at both middle infield positions and in center, and while he's raw in all facets of defense, O'Rae's speed and athleticism are a fit in center field and he has a shot to be pretty good out there. The infield is a less natural fit for him, as his hands aren't especially good. O'Rae has a proclivity for oppo contact and was very difficult to make whiff last year. It's contact of the low-impact variety and will probably stay that way because of his lack of size. Plus speed and defense are most likely to carry O'Rae to a big league role, and if he can sustain his early career contact rates (I'm skeptical), then some of those peak Kemp type years are in play.

Cole Young|SEA

Young's profile has shifted pretty dramatically since he was drafted, as he has added considerable bulk to his frame. As a high schooler, he was among the more polished shortstop defenders in his class and was performing well from a bat-to-ball standpoint on the showcase circuit. He looked like a high-floor middle infield prospect with a modest ceiling. His upper body has become much stronger and Young already has close to average big league raw power, while his increased size has detracted from his defense and has put him at risk of sliding to second base as he climbs the minors. His hands and exchange are still good, and he has a suitable arm for shortstop, but he now lacks the range and bend of the typical big leaguer there.
Young is performing very well at the plate with Low-A Modesto, walking more than he strikes out and K'ing at just a 13% clip. His underlying contact rates are close to the middle of the big league middle infield pack at around 80%. There are some aspects of his swing that may require adjustment over time. For instance, Young's momentum is almost always taking him down the first base line as he swings, and his bat path tends to loop through the bottom of the zone. Despite this, he's been able to cover the outer third consistently so far, and he hasn't yet been exploited by the up-and-away fastballs that hitters with swings like this tend to struggle against. Young's work in the weight room has led to an uptick in his raw power, but it's still a shade below average and he's now close to maxed out. He's likely to mature into a well-rounded combination of contact and power that gets amplified by his feel for the strike zone, which is excellent. He's a very stable everyday middle infield prospect.

Jordan Wicks|CHC

Wicks arguably had the best changeup in the 2021 draft as well as plus command projection, putting him firmly in the middle of the first round. Lefties with plus changeups and plus command almost always tend to carve out a role at the back of a rotation, and he has been tracking like a no. 4/5 starter since he broke out during the summer of 2020. His fastball, while not all that hard, has traits that enable it to play at the top of the strike zone when he is throwing the four-seam version, and he helps himself further by hiding the ball well. Wicks will vary his breaking ball shape in the 77–83 mph range, at times showing hitters a slider with lateral action and at others imparting more vertical break on a curve. It looks as though he's added a cutter this year, giving him a sixth pitch. Neither of Wicks' slower breakers is especially nasty, but again, his command helps them shine. He started the 2023 season with a 17% swinging strike rate at Double-A over 13 starts, seven of which lasted at least five frames, earning him a promotion. One of the more stable starting pitching prospects in the minors, Wicks doesn't technically have to be added to the Cubs’ 40-man until after the 2024 season, but he’s on pace to debut well ahead of that schedule. He's a high probability no. 4 starter.

Jace Jung|DET

Jung hit .328/.468/.647 over his career at Texas Tech, with more walks than strikeouts every single year. Despite lacking an obvious position, he was one of the 2022 draft's most stable prospects because his track record as a hitter was so strong. If there was some dissent about Jung, it had to do with his swing. The pull-oriented lefty has an open stance with hands set similar to Chuck Knoblauch, with the tip of the bat angled toward the umpire, and he tends to take a longer, uphill path geared for airborne contact. Jung actually swung and missed in the strike zone a little worse than average in college and there was thought that his unique set-up was the cause. He's been on everything so far in pro ball, though, and his hands are quick and explosive enough that A-ball stuff hasn't flummoxed Jung. He's shown some ability to serve stuff away from him into the opposite field gap, but mostly Jung is looking to yank pitches on the inner third and mistake breaking balls to his pull-side. Jung has had a tendency to stride open and leave himself vulnerable on the outer third of the dish. This might become a problem against upper-level arms who can execute good sliders away from him, but the elimination of shifts means Jung can lean into his pull-heavy style with just one infielder to rip contact past on the right side of the diamond.
The shift elimination is a double-edged sword for this guy because Jung is much bigger than the typical second baseman and lacks typical range for the position, which now can't as easily be hidden with precise positioning. He's fine making routine plays but tends to be too passive when it comes to attacking high hops, and his actions around the bag on double play turns can be compromised by how late he is approaching the bag. He projects to play second base, but to at best be a 40-grade defender there. He last played third base in 2020 and the pace at which the action unfolds at that position did not suit Jung, who really struggled with it. Priced into Jung's FV is the possibility that his defense bottoms out. He's going to hit enough to be an integral role-playing piece who has a righty-hitting sidecar with a better glove.

Chase Petty|CIN

The track record for high school pitchers who are among the hardest throwers in their class is not very good, and even after a relatively successful first full pro season, this spectre follows Petty, who came to the Reds from Minnesota during the fall of 2022 in a trade for Sonny Gray. He was up to 102 mph and routinely sat in the mid-to-upper 90s during his draft year, then "only" averaged 94 mph throughout his first full pro season while working four innings per outing. The natural tailing action of his fastball diverges from the movement of his mid-80s slider in such a way that righty batters are often frozen by the latter, and Petty might develop letter-high fastball utility due to his heater's shallow angle. Arm actions as long as Petty's tend to be difficult to repeat, and aren't typically the sort on which you project huge changeup growth, but Petty's 2022 was very encouraging on both fronts. He never walked more than three batters in any outing (and only did that three times), threw each of his pitches for strikes at least 60% of the time (his fastball nearly 70% of the time), and the rate stats on his changeup were quite good even though he didn't use it very often. Well-built and strong, Petty has uncommon athleticism, and even though the cement on his frame is closer to being dry than it is for most teenage prospects, there are signs of growth and an increased likelihood of Petty developing into a starter.

George Lombard Jr.|NYY

Lombard is the son of a former big leaguer of the same name and presents teams with a well-rounded collection of present tools and skills, as well as long-term physical projection that might lead some of those tools to be plus. An elegant and smooth defender, Lombard played all over the infield during pre-draft showcases because of the presence of other shortstops on regional teams' rosters. He has the range, feet, hands, and actions to develop as a shortstop in pro ball. Geared for oppo gap contact, Lombard also has relatively advanced feel to hit and routinely squares pitches up. His frame is still maturing and as he'll barely be 18 on draft day, Lombard is likely to grow into meaningful power as he ages; a lot of it had already begun to arrive in the spring of 2023. His defense and hit tool foundation, combined with the chance he grows into pop, make him a first round draft prospect and potential everyday infielder.

Garrett Mitchell|MIL

A high-profile prospect since high school, Mitchell is now 24 years old and there are still key aspects of his skill set that are tough to evaluate and project. Even as his surface-level performance has been strong at virtually every level, there have been issues implied by his TrackMan data and visual flaws in his swing, both of which have made it hard for him to hit for power in games and may make it tough for him to hit big league pitching at all. Mitchell has above-average raw power and will flash it on occasion, but his swing makes it tough for him to elevate consistently, especially to his pull-side. He has a swing-and-miss hole in the top third of the zone and tends to only be able to put the ball in play on the ground in the bottom third, giving Mitchell a mistake-hitter look when you dig into his spray chart. The industry has been waiting for a swing change that might bring out the power more consistently, but that hasn't happened yet. A pro's physique, big strength, and straight line speed give Mitchell the appearance of high-end athleticism, but looseness, fluidity, and grace aren't part of the package. Some of what he's able to do on a baseball field leaps out at you, especially when Mitchell is hauling ass into the gaps, but athletic malleability does not appear to be one of them. Center field defense is easily Mitchell's most impactful tool. It's hard to find players who can actually play a big league center field and Mitchell is quite good out there, and he has an above-average arm. He shares many similarities with Bradley Zimmer, though Mitchell's plate discipline should enable him to perform like a 45 FV outfielder more consistently than Zimmer has.

Robby Snelling|SD

Snelling pitched very well at Low-A (20% K%, 6.5% BB%, 50% GB%) and was promoted to Fort Wayne just before list publication, but I'm not inclined to alter his pre-draft FV grade just yet. He has special physicality (Snelling was also a four-star linebacker prospect in high school) and a precocious two-plane breaking ball, but he also has one of the more violent deliveries among starting pitching prospects in this system, with a head whack reminiscent of Hideki Okajima's.
Snelling's fastball is averaging 93 mph so far in 2023. It has above-average vertical movement, but some of the impact of that is countered by its downhill angle. While his physique is an indication that Snelling gets after it in the gym, he has basically no more room for mass, and thus probably won’t grow into more velocity. Snelling has gotten better at throwing his low-80s breaking ball with conviction (he would baby it into the zone in high school) and he has feel for landing it in the zone for a strike, but he doesn't have as sentient a feel for burying it as a chase pitch. Put on the tape from his first High-A start and you'll see that opposing hitters are identifying his breaking ball out of hand and attacking ones he's trying to locate in the zone with comfort (even the lefty hitters). There is some ability to create action on his changeup but, as is to be expected from a teenage pitching prospect with less than a season of pro ball under his belt, Snelling's feel for locating it is behind his other pitches. I had more of a $1.5 million eval on Snelling before the draft and still think that's correct. He's definitely a good pitching prospect, but for a lot of the same reasons it turned out to be incorrect to stuff Adrian Morejon (fastball playability, hitters' ability to ID his breaker, some mechanical violence), I have Snelling more in a no. 4/5 starter bucket with some relief risk dialing down his FV.

Dillon Dingler|DET

Dingler was in the midst of a breakout campaign at Ohio State during the spring of 2020 when COVID ended the college baseball season. He entered the year having hit just seven home runs combined in his two underclass seasons (in part due to a broken hamate), then hit five in just 13 games prior to the shutdown. Dingler was shot out of a cannon to start 2021. He crushed High-A for about a month (.287/.376/.549) before being promoted to Double-A Erie, where he stayed hot for a couple of weeks before crashing back to Earth and striking out in about a third of his plate appearances, ending the year with a .202/.264/.314 line there. He rebounded in 2022, posting a 107 wRC+ but still striking out in 32% of his PAs with Erie.
A meniscectomy shelved him for the start of 2023 and when Dingler returned, he did so receiving on one knee, which is a departure from the 2022 campaign. Because he only recently returned and has been eased back into catching, it's unclear how this will impact some aspects of Dingler's game. For instance, he was a great catch-and-throw athlete with a quick transfer, routinely popping around 1.90 from a traditional crouch, but he hasn't really been tested in this regard since coming off the IL. The athleticism and receiving to be a do-it-all defender behind the dish is here, and much of Dingler's prospect variance is tied to whether his hit tool and medium-sized frame will enable him to be a primary catcher or just a luxury backup. He swings through a ton of in-zone fastballs and really struggles to get on top of anything in the upper third of the zone. There aren't many catchers capable of punishing mistakes with power the way Dingler does, but his bat-to-ball ability is also comfortably worse than the typical hitter at that position. He shares quite a few similarities with Jake Rogers and should end up playing a lot, producing about 1.5 annual WAR in a low-end primary catching role.

Sem Robberse|STL

Robberse spent most of 2022 at High-A before a mid-August promotion to Double-A, where he closed out the season. Across those two levels, he struck out 21% of opposing hitters with a 7.4% walk rate. He throws from a three-quarters slot with a long arm action, but he repeats the delivery very well, throwing each pitch of his three-pitch arsenal from identical release points. His fastball only sat around 91 mph in 2022; during the spring of 2023, it's been more 92-94, albeit in shorter outings. He's still only 21, and even though he's slight of build, it's plausible this early 2023 velo bump will sustain just through physical maturation. Even though it has 30-grade velocity, Robberse's fastball plays better than that. Big extension and spin creates ride that helps it play up. Robberse also commands the heater to where it plays best, and it appears to tunnel well with both his slider and his changeup. He has limited fastball utility because the pitch is pretty vulnerable in the zone, but Robberse's advanced feel for his mid-80s slider helps remedy that. His 38% usage of that slider is just slightly behind that of his fastball, and Robberse tends to lean on it when he needs a strike. Robberse's changeup is arguably his nastiest pitch — it tails and dives away from lefties with uncommon depth for how hard it is -- even though he doesn't use it as much as his slider. He is a high-probability no. 4/5 starter on a contender, and his command makes him feel like a relatively stable prospect even though he's a young pitcher. Robberse is likely to be added to the Cardinals 40-man roster after the 2023 season.

Gino Groover|ARI

Groover had maybe the fastest hands in the entire 2023 draft. His swing isn't always connected, but his hands rip through the zone in the blink of an eye and his contact rates are shockingly good for how hard he swings. He is a very dangerous hitter to all fields and was only vulnerable to swings and misses at NC State when he would chase, which wasn't a ton. A transfer from UNC Charlotte, most aspects of his game still need polish, especially his defense. Groover often looks rushed and his throws frequently pull the first baseman off the bag, but his range and overall athleticism give him huge long-term ceiling with the glove. He was among the 2023 draft's more volatile and exciting prospects.

Joe Mack|MIA

Mack (whose brother Charles was drafted by the Twins a few years ago) is a lefty-hitting catcher with a big frame, above-average bat speed, and a grooved, uppercut swing. His bat path has gorgeous natural loft, and Mack is a loose, explosive rotator, but he tends to swing through the center of the zone and doesn't have especially good feel for the barrel. The good news is that plenty of catchers have 20-grade hit tools, but if they're good enough defenders and get to some power, they tend to play a big league role. Mack's size, mobility, the strength of his hands and arm, and the quality of his receiving are all solid long-term fits behind the dish. He has rare raw power for a lefty-hitting catcher and while he'll probably hit between .180-.200 at the big league level, so long as he's getting to the power, Mack will be doing enough to be at least a backup. Because we're talking about a young catcher who has a cold weather amateur background and missed a chunk of 2022 with injury, there are some late-bloomer traits here that I want to account for. There won't be enough hit tool for Mack to be a star, but if he can become a 30-grade bat, it will be enough to make him a second division primary catcher.

Jose Salas|MIN

Salas was ranked ninth in the 2019 international amateur class and actually got his first pro reps in Venezuela during the winter of 2020 when his would-be stateside debut was delayed because of COVID. Salas hit well in 2021 and 2022, spending the latter season split between the Florida State and Midwest Leagues before wrapping the year in the Arizona Fall League, where he looked talented but exhausted, which was especially noticeable in his defense. Over the winter, Salas was traded to Minnesota as part of the Pablo López/Luis Arraez deal.
He's really struggling out of the gate in 2023, as he's shown a dramatic uptick in his strikeout rate with High-A Cedar Rapids even though he hit pretty well in the Midwest League at the end of 2022 while still with Miami. Salas is seeing a lot of letter-high fastballs, which he both struggles to lay off of and to contact. His in-zone miss rates have still been very favorable in 2023, but his chase rates are up and this seems to be where his extra strikeouts are coming from. Is this a slump from which Salas can emerge or were we tricked into thinking he was good in the first place? He was viewed as a potential everyday player if you thought he could stay at shortstop, and more of a Josh Rojas type of infield prospect if you though he couldn't. He's definitely trending toward the latter, but we're still talking about a very physical 20-year-old switch-hitting infielder with above-average bat speed. The Midwest League is miserable to hit in early in the year and Salas is young for the league. While his late 2022 look was enough to pull him off the Top 100 list, he still projects as a useful part-time big leaguer — he won't just be Ethan's brother. Avenues to a true everyday role could come from Salas developing more power than I project here. He is already quite physical for a player his age and doesn't have much room for more weight and strength without detracting from his mobility, so there's less future pop forecast here than there is for most 20-year-olds. The Josh Rojas comp feels apt on offense but Salas should become a slightly a better defender.

Bryce Eldridge|SF

Eldridge has some of the best raw power projection in this draft. He already has plus raw pop and his gigantic frame gives him a shot to develop actual 80-grade raw power. At his projected size, he'll be a first base-only defender, putting a ton of pressure on Eldridge's hit tool to help him get to that power. There have been points during this draft process when one could consider Eldridge's hit tool a binary "no." He has vertical plate coverage from belt-level and below, dropping the bat head to turn on low pitches. He's vulnerable to fastballs on the outer third and doesn't track pitches consistently well, with his head often flying out ahead of contact. But Eldridge's swing isn't all that long and it only get easier for him to hit for power while staying short to the ball as he continues to get stronger. His swing has big uppercut loft that can make one confidant that when he does make contact, there will be lift and power. This still isn't a slam dunk profile, but a 35-plus homer outcome with a viable all-around offense at first base feels more likely now than it did seven months ago.

Nick Bitsko|TB

Bitsko was originally going to be part of the 2021 draft but reclassified in January of '20 , moving up a class at what turned out to be an inopportune time. Though he was a known underclass prospect, the COVID shutdown meant teams barely had any time to bear down on the cold-weather righty with the urgency typically applied to someone who's eligible to be picked in a couple of months rather than a couple of years. As a result, teams' opinions of Bitsko were driven by what he did in the fall of 2019 (he was 92-96 mph in front of heavy-hitting eyeballs at East Coast Pro) and, in the case of some teams, what they saw in the bullpen just before the shutdown, plus any pitch data he generated thereafter. In each instance, Bitsko's arm strength, curveball, and touch-and-feel command were on par with first-round high school arms. Still, some teams weren't comfortable taking a player they'd barely seen, and this dichotomy made Bitsko's stock volatile. He seemed like someone's overslot target in the comp round, but the Rays took him before he could fall that far and signed him for $3 million.
After experiencing fits of shoulder soreness and discomfort during his post-draft remote training, Bitsko elected to have labrum surgery in December of 2020. Shoulder issues persisted during his rehab, and he didn't get into an actual pro game until June of 2022, approaching three years since he had last pitched in a competitive setting. When he finally took the mound, Bitsko looked to be in amazing shape for someone who had been shelved for so long, but his arm strength hadn't totally returned. He made 10 appearances on the complex before being sent out to an affiliate for his final four starts, sitting 90-94 for most of that stretch. His power breaking ball was intact, though, and it is still comfortably plus when he finishes it in a competitive location. As you can probably tell from peeking at Bitsko's walk totals, that wasn't usually the case. His arm circle is quite long and his feel for release was very inconsistent; he scattered his fastball all over the place. This might have been rust related, but it isn't as if we have a big pre-injury sample to point to as evidence that Bitsko actually has starter-level command. He still has a prototypical starter's frame and one hell of a breaking ball, but shoulder issues can be very disruptive, as Brendan McKay followers and Rays fans know. I think you can still reasonably hope that Bitsko might end up being really good, and even though it'd be tough to value him in this area if you were a GM having actual trade discussions with the Rays, the possibility that he might be much more than a 40 demands that he be positioned in this FV tier.

Orion Kerkering|PHI

Kerkering's 2022 was a tale of two halves. He was great early in the year, sometimes pitching through the sixth and seventh inning while amassing seven or more strikeouts. In the second half, he had a few epic meltdowns and soon saw his role downshifted; he rarely pitched more than two innings at a time down the stretch before the draft. His stuff looked crisp again in the spring of 2023, especially Kerkering's trademark mid-80s slider, which has huge two-plane sweep. He still has issues with fastball quality and command that funnel his projection toward the bullpen. Sitting 92-95 mph as a starter, he'll hopefully see a more comfortable leap into the mid-90s if and when he's eventually shifted to the bullpen. Here slider quality projects to carry him to a consistent on-roster middle relief role, ahead of the slew of up/down velo bullies who also reside in this system.

Brendan Beck|NYY

The younger brother of Giants prospect Tristan Beck, Brendan was drafted as a fourth-year junior (he had an extra year of eligibility due to the pandemic) out of Stanford who amassed a 3.11 career ERA against mostly Pac-12 hitters. In 2021, he struck out 143 and walked just 26 in 108 innings, punctuating an ultra-efficient college career. He still hasn't pitched as a pro due to a TJ in late 2021 that cost him all of 2022. Beck carved in college while sitting mostly 91-92 mph; he typically tops out at 94 a handful of times over the course of his starts. He has a five-pitch mix headlined by his curveball. It only sits about 74-77, but it has good depth and bite commensurate with an average big league curveball. It operates best as a first-pitch strike. The pitch Beck uses most often, though, is his low-80s slider. Purely on stuff, Beck’s slide piece is clearly below average, but he has such fantastic glove-side command of it that it will play better than that. His plus command of the slider and his below-average mid-80s changeup, as well as his ability to vary fastball shape with his two- and four-seamers, is why he performed so well as a collegiate player. Since arm strength has become a relatively easy thing to develop, you could argue that this is the kind of pitcher teams should want to draft. But there's less overt athleticism and secondary stuff quality here than with other efficient college starters, so consider Beck a low-variance fifth starter prospect.

Braden Shewmake|CHW

Shewmake is a long, lanky, lefty-hitting infielder with a proven ability to put the bat on the ball but virtually no power. He’s listed at roughly the same weight as fellow hot-bat-no-pop middle infielder Luke Waddell despite being roughly nine inches taller than him, and his inability to fill out his frame has affected his ability to tap into power despite adjusting his swing to better create lift. Shewmake also tends to swing more than he should, with a 56.4% swing rate at Triple-A in 2022, and while he managed not to pair that with an inflated strikeout rate, his free-swinging tendency resulted in a heap of infield flies and weak contact overall, dampening the overall impact of his swings.
He’d only ever played shortstop until midway through 2022 when he played a few games at second, and thus far in 2023, he’s spent more time there than on the left side of the infield despite the Braves' needs at the major league level. Infield versatility creates a more realistic pathway to a big league role, but Shewmake's throwing has been iffy enough that we wonder if second base is just a better fit for him. We want to see better defense from our 45 FV middle infield utility players and have Shewmake evaluated here as a more neutral defender whose big league utility comes from his ability to put balls in play from the left side.

David Hamilton|BOS

A torn Achilles tendon in 2019 cost Hamilton his junior year at Texas; the injury also dropped him to the later part of his draft's second day, where the Brewers selected him in the eighth round. He finally got his first taste of pro baseball in 2021, and a season defined by gaudy stolen base totals ended with him being traded to Boston in the Hunter Renfroe deal. In 2022, Hamilton's first season in the Red Sox org, he slashed .251/.338/.402 at Double-A Portland (generating a pretty medium 104 wRC+) and stole 70 bases (!) in 78 attempts.
Hamilton is a 70-grade runner who regularly gets down the line in the 4.00–4.10 second range. Minor league camera operators have trouble keeping him in frame, and his speed forces opposing infielders to rush their throws, often impacting their accuracy. This speed, combined with Hamilton's suitable shortstop defense, makes him very likely to play a part-time big league role. He has made plus rates of contact in the minors but has done so as an old-for-the-level player, so it feels prudent to round down on that tool at least a little bit. Vulnerable on the outer edge, Hamilton is best at turning on inside pitches, which is really the only part of the zone in which he's able to hit for power. More "fine" than excellent at short, he doesn't have the skill set of a premium utilityman and is more of a niche player who can impact the game with his speed. If he continues to get reps in center field (he played two games there in 2022 and just one and a half more so far in 2023), then that premium utility role is in play.

Kevin Ereu|MIL

One of the more polished all-around players in the 2023 international signing class, Ereu has plus infield footwork and actions, and is physical enough to threaten the gaps on offense. He looks like a third round West Coast college infielder in his skills and build, and is perceived to have a high floor.

Isaiah Campbell|BOS

Campbell was granted a medical redshirt in 2017 because of surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. His stuff wasn't totally back in 2018 and the Angels tried to buy low on the then-redshirt sophomore in the 28th round. He returned to school, his stuff bounced back, and Campbell went in the 2019 second round. He barely pitched in 2020 or 2021 due to the pandemic and a TJ. A move to the bullpen part of the way through 2022 helped Campbell's stuff tick up, and he's throwing two ticks harder so far in 2023 than he was on average last season. His delivery and on-mound athleticism are still scary but when he's been healthy, Campbell has thrown plenty of strikes and has two good pitches in his heater and nasty vertical slider. He's currently on the Mariners' 40-man and is a decent bet to debut at some point in the second half of 2023, projecting as a middle reliever.

Jaxon Wiggins|CHC

Wiggins was a lights out reliever as a freshman at Arkansas but struggled as a starter in his second year. Things were so bad that the industry wondered if he was healthy, but Wiggins' final 2022 appearance (which came out of the bullpen) saw him sit 97-100 with a nasty mid-80s curveball. After some rest and a great-looking autumn, Wiggins' elbow barked and he had Tommy John not long before the start of the 2023 season. He already had significant relief risk prior to the injury and this likely pushes things a little further in that direction. There's still potential impact here, it's just on a tape delay as Wiggins rehabs into 2024.

Cory Lewis|MIN

Knuckleballer alert! Lewis doesn't throw many of them but he does incorporate a knuckler into his mix, though he is mostly a prospect for other reasons. He gets an unusual number of in-zone whiffs on his 90 mph fastball because he tilts out like Michael Wacha, creating a vertical arm slot that imparts riding life on the baseball, and his fastball is averaging 20 inches of induced vertical break early in 2023. Lewis also commands the heck out of his little 80-82 mph slider and turns over a fair changeup from that vertical slot, which is rare but also Wacha-esque (though Lewis' isn't as nasty). This is a backend starter's mix and command that will be stress-tested at the upper levels of the minors.

Jose Gerardo|MIA

Gerardo hit 11 bombs in just 50 games in the 2022 DSL, and his barrel rate was at the top of the scale for a hitter his age while his hard-hit rates and peak exit velos were comfortably plus. Eyeball scouts consider him a power-over-hit prospect in the extreme, and hitters who strike out at a 30% clip in the DSL do not have a great track record of panning out. Gerardo also isn't all that projectable, but he does have tools, with a huge arm in addition to the precocious power. Consider him a low-level sleeper who needs to show better feel for contact in the 2023 Complex League.

Justin Dirden|HOU

Dirden had a breakout 2022 as he hit .324/.411/.616 with 20 bombs at Corpus Christi and ended the year with Sugar Land. He's been exposed by changeups in the early part of 2023 and his strikeout rates have climbed to near 30%. He's going to have to make an adjustment now, but Dirden is a pretty interesting late-bloomer candidate. He hopped around to many different schools as an amateur and was an undrafted free agent in 2020. He produced at a 150 wRC+ level until he reached Triple-A, where things have kind of gone sideways, but there are big league tools here. Dirden has about average big league power from the left side, his swing is pretty short, and he generates consistent lift. He's not a good center fielder, but he runs well enough to be above-average in a corner. This is an interesting older sleeper who could get an opportunity to prove it's real on a rebuilding club.

Wes Kath|CHW

Kath was absolutely stuffed on FanGraphs' 2021 pre-draft rankings, but it quickly became clear in pro ball that he has severe bat-to-ball issues. In fairness/kindness to the White Sox (and myself), the pandemic disrupted Kath's pre-draft summer. Changes to the schedule and location of showcase events limited his participation in them, making it rare for him to face the top-of-the-class peers who might have exposed these issues sooner. Kath's sweet-looking lefty stroke dominated varsity baseball in Arizona, his frame portended impact power, and he was slick enough as a defender that some scouts thought he might be a long-term fit at shortstop. The latter two elements are still part of Kath's game, positive aspects of his prospect profile. But it was visually evident very quickly in pro ball that he was struggling to parse breaking balls <em>and</em> catch high fastballs, and now that we have a full season of pro data to comb over, the underlying contact metrics here are very scary: 19% swinging strike rate, 59% contact rate. Even if he strikes out a third of the time, if Kath can get to power against righty pitching and take an above-average rate of walks (he did both in 2022) while playing great defense, he'll be a solid (if flawed) big league role player, kind of like late-career Matt Carpenter with a better glove. His footwork, hands, actions, and arm strength are all plus, and it may even be worth running him out as a shortstop just to see how it goes. Of course, because he's already striking out at a 33% clip, there's risk the bottom falls out of the bat so significantly that the other stuff doesn't matter.

Erik Miller|SF

Acquired from the Phillies before the 2023 season in exchange for hard-throwing reliever Yunior Marte, Miller is a relatively stiff lefty with the repertoire depth of a starter and the command and mechanical look of a reliever. He's had a two-tick velo spike this season under the Giants' dev umbrella, as well as an uptick in his slider usage. Miller's arm slot and release varies frequently, especially when he throws his changeup, for which he has a tendency to drop down to a noticeably lower angle. His changeup has big fading action and is going to be a bat-missing big league offering anyway; it's easily his best pitch. The Giants assigned him to Double-A to start the season and quickly promoted him to Sacramento, where he continues to fan guys but has seen his BB/9 balloon above seven. Miller is a well below-average athlete, and it's possible his lack of strikes will force him into an up/down role rather than a permanent roster spot, but his repertoire depth would otherwise allow him to profile pretty comfortably as a good reliever.

Joel Ibarra|LAD

Ibarra was intriguing as a two-way amateur because of his on-mound athleticism and the whippiness of his arm action, but his stuff was only in the 88-92 mph range and he was very wild. His pro career began as a shortstop in the 2019 DSL. He spent 2021 in the DSL again, this time on the mound, and was a walk-prone 90-94 mph. During 2022 extended spring training, he showed a massive velocity uptick, sitting 94-96, up to 98, and held that throughout what amounted to approximately 50 innings across the season when you factor in his extended and instructs innings. He bends in some plus 82-84 mph sliders at roughly 2,700 rpm, some plus cutters at 92-93 mph and an occasionally good changeup or two in the 86-88 mph band, but these are all inconsistent, which one might expect given Ibarra's developmental context. He is a 19-year-old former shortstop with monster stuff but still very little feel for location, behind enough that he has pure relief projection here even though he's only recently focused on pitching. Keeping Ibarra stretched out in a starting or multi-inning relief capacity will help him polish up those secondaries, though, which is important considering that 2023 is already his 40-man evaluation year. If he can throw strikes while reaching High-A, there's a chance he's added after the season. He has late-inning relief potential but is still a long way off from that reality.

Juan Then|CHW

Then (pronounced "Ten") was originally signed by Seattle, then was sent to the Yankees when the Mariners were swapping low-level prospects for 40-man depth at the end of their last competitive window; he was finally being returned in the Edwin Encarnación deal. His repertoire and delivery has been augmented a few times since then, and Then has settled in as a pretty standard three-pitch reliever with a sinker, slider, and changeup. His delivery now looks a lot like Penn Murfee's except without quite as low an arm slot. There was a time when he'd kiss 100 mph, but currently Then is sitting 94 and bumping 97 with sink and tail, creating a lateral action split with his slider. His command has fallen to a place where I consider him more of an up/down guy than an on-roster middle inning arm.

Alex Mooney|CLE

Mooney was old for the 2021 high school class, and so was an eligible soph in 2023. He's a well-balanced player with average potential tools across the board. Scouts are split as to whether he can actualy stick at short. His arm is plus but Mooney tends to take an extra few steps to field and gather himself to throw, resulting in a lot of too-close-for-comfort plays at first base. Mooney's hand speed in the batter's box is very exciting. He has a quick, authoritative top hand through contact and can turn on most anything. His front foot is sometimes down late and he struggles to spoil sliders away from him, even ones that finish in the zone, because he's so pull-oriented. But there's both barrel control and bat speed here, enough offense to make Mooney a high-probability utility infielder who could be more than that if he can actually improve as a shortstop defender.

Carlos Lagrange|NYY

The gigantic Lagrange threw incredibly hard in the 2022 DSL, sitting 95-98 mph with sink and tail while bending in the occasionally plus curveball. The track record of pitchers this big who throw this hard at this age isn't great, and Lagrange's fastball has some "round down" characteristics (like downhill plane), but his velocity, breaking ball quality, and potential ability to eat starter's innings because of his size are all very exciting.

Zack Hess|DET

The Braves tried to use the pool space they would have saved by signing Carter Stewart to an under-slot deal to land Hess in 2018, but he went back to school and got about a quarter million the following year. He has projected as a reliever for pretty much his entire life as a prospect, at times looking like a late-inning weapon. After reaching Double-A and the Arizona Fall League in 2022, Hess seemed tee'd up to reach Detroit in 2022, but instead he blew out during the spring and had TJ before spring training had even begun. Hess was back in time to break camp with West Michigan on rehab assignment, but he was shut down after just five appearances. Other teams' internal systems list his reason as returning to the IL as "right elbow surgery," but it's unclear if Hess has simply had a setback during recovery from the 2022 TJ or if he's gone under the knife again. A Tigers contact did not want to confirm injury specifics for this list. Healthy Hess can touch 97 mph, and his low-80s slider has good sweep to it and is frequently his out pitch. Hess also has a solid low-80s changeup, but he barely threw it in 2021. If it turns out he's had another season-ending injury, then he should probably just be in the honorable mention section of the list since a big part of the optimism around Hess was that he'd race to Detroit once he showed he was healthy.

Yuki Matsui|SD

Matsui's combination of splitter quality, fastball shape and angle, and excellent command should make him a platoon-neutral big league middle reliever capable of working four to six outs if needed. He first appeared on the International Players section of The Board last year when he posted the second-highest swinging strike rate in NPB behind Livan Moinelo (a name to stash away for next offseason). Despite sitting mostly 91-94 throughout the season, he ranked fourth in K% in 2023 among pitchers who threw at least 40 innings (32.4%) because his fastball misses a ton of bats at the letters thanks to its flat approach angle and vertical movement. The supremely athletic 5-foot-8 lefty has a due north arm slot that helps impart a nearly perfect back spinning axis on his fastball. Sometimes pitchers with this high a slot end up having a steep, downhill fastball angle, but Matsui's lack of size helps counterbalance that, and his bouncy on-mound athleticism should enable him to hold up across a typical 60-inning big league relief workload despite being so small.
As pedestrian as Matsui's fastball velocity is, his splitter is quite firm (usually 86-88 mph). It's his most-used secondary pitch; his usage of it has increased in each of the last several seasons and grew to a career-high 35% in 2023. Matsui also has a true two-plane mid-80s slider that is of big league quality, but his usage of it was cut nearly in half in 2023, way down to 10%. It’s a good looking pitch and probably deserves more air time. Despite lacking typical big league reliever arm strength, Matsui looks like a very stable and versatile big league middle reliever. I've gassed his FV a little bit above my typical 40 FV for a role like this because Matsui's mix should enable him to get hitters of both handednesses out. He lacks the monstrous stuff I associate with a contender's set-up man or closer, but he's more than a generic sixth-inning guy.

Pedro Ibarguen|MIL

Ibarguen's defensive versatility (he's already played second, third and all three outfield spots) and pound-for-pound strength separate him from some of the other small-framed hitters from Milwaukee's DSL group. He slashed .311/.437/.447 in the 2023 DSL, runs well, swings hard for a player his size (his top hand is very involved with his swing), and has demonstrated above-average feel for contact. This is a potential super utility type who is probably several years away from the big leagues.

Tyler Soderstrom|OAK

2022 was the first season in which Soderstrom’s time at first base surpassed his time behind the dish, though that was largely due to a month-long catching hiatus early in the season. The rest of the year was split relatively evenly between the two defensive roles, and the same is true so far in 2023, but the first base transition has long been seen as a possibility, maybe even an obvious move, due both to Soderstrom's below-average defense as a backstop and as a way of protecting his offensive performance from the dings that are part and parcel with everyday catching. His blocking in particular is flawed. Soderstrom's crouch is quite upright at times, creating a big five-hole, and he isn't particularly keen on throwing his body in front of short hops, opting instead to pick them with his glove. This results in more passed balls and dropped third strikes that allow runners to reach than is typical. His receiving skills have gotten better and Soderstrom's throws to second are fairly accurate and hover around two seconds, but his performance as a basepath protector has been lackluster, with a sub-20% caught-stealing rate. It seems inevitable that he'll be a full-time first baseman in the long run.
And that's okay, because Soderstrom should hit for enough power to be an impact first baseman. He's had a nearly 50% hard-hit rate in both 2022 and 2023, and he swatted 29 homers last year and is on pace for more than that this season as a college-aged hitter at Triple-A. Soderstrom has widened and opened up his stance since the start of his professional career. Instead of a short stride toward the mound, his step is toward the plate as he closes his stance before his hips fire and he muscles the barrel through the zone. Soderstrom has some vulnerability to back foot breaking balls and he weirdly tends to muscle some up-and-in pitches the other way, but he's strong enough to do damage even when making sub-optimal contact.
So far in 2023, he’s maintained or improved on many of his mouth-watering underlying metrics, but it’s come with a ballooning chase rate of over 40%, which is both concerning and largely to blame for his below-average performance at Triple-A. His chasing runs the gamut from below-the-zone breaking balls to heaters up at his eyebrows, and he’s swinging at 53% of the pitches he sees, far more than the major league or Triple-A average. Soderstrom's aggressive approach may lead him to have a merely average hit tool even though his barrel feel is quite good, and that seems more likely as of his first few months of 2023. He’s still slugging a good amount, but his overall hitting has ebbed. Ultimately, because he has 70 power and actualized in-zone contact, Soderstrom projects as a middle-of-the-order anchor who hits 50 annual doubles at peak. He could probably reach the majors while Oakland is still the final destination for minor leaguers in this system, especially if the org cuts bait on him catching. But with a 2024 40-man timeline and no window of contention in sight, the A's has incentive to slow play his development and hope he can actually catch.

Masyn Winn|STL

Once a two-way prospect and an incredible on-mound athlete, Winn has been developed solely as a position player in pro ball and his offensive performance through the mid-minors (specifically from a bat-to-ball standpoint) elevated him into the Top 100 last summer. His performance has plateaued over the last year at Double- and Triple-A. He finished the 2022 season having performed exactly at the Double-A league average over his 86 games there despite being about four years younger than the average player at that level. He started 2023 at Triple-A and had a frustrating April, with an anemic slash line due largely to an unprecedented amount of swing-and-miss out of the strike zone. In particular, he had trouble laying off mid-to-upper-90s fastballs above the zone, which hadn't been a problem area for him at lower levels. As of list publication, Winn is hitting .188 against fastballs 94 mph and above per Synergy, and he's struggling to pull average big league velo at all. Is Winn's sudden dip in performance due to an actual long-term issue that has recently been exposed, or is the 21-year-old simply less developed than his opponents?
The performance against high fastballs is troubling because Winn's success to this point was largely thanks to the amount of contact he was making. His short levers and quick hands seemed capable of getting on top of high heat, but that hasn't been the case in the upper minors. His swinging strike rate remains better than the big league average despite his specific issues with velocity. It's pretty important for Winn to have a plus or better hit tool because he likely won't hit for a ton of power. He's a smaller-framed athlete without great long-term strength projection, and his swing isn't especially whippy or rotationally explosive.
The good news is Winn's shortstop defense will give his bat room to breath. His elite arm strength helps make up for a mediocre first step, and overall Winn is an average defender who projects to be a little better than that over time. Cracks have started to show at the plate and it's important to pay attention to them throughout the rest of 2023, but we're still betting that Winn's athleticism will allow him to make adjustments that help his hit tool shine again, enough for him to continue projecting as a regular shortstop.

Bryan Ramos|CHW

Ramos is walking the Curtis Mead path in many ways. He's performed as a young-for-the-level hitter at each stop despite a raw approach at the plate and uncertainty around his defense, with his third base fit in question due to middling arm strength. In 2022, the talented Cuban slashed a potent .275/.350/.471 and clubbed 19 home runs at High-A Winston-Salem as a young 20-year-old (he won't turn 21 until March) before descending upon Birmingham with the rest of Chicago's high-profile guys.
Some of what Ramos does on defense is very impressive. His range and actions at third base are both fantastic, and he's an accurate thrower from all sorts of awkward platforms, but there are times when he lollipops deeper (and even some routine) throws over to first base. It makes sense that there has been some second base experimentation here over the last few years, as Ramos' range and actions make it plausible that he could eventually fit there, and Colson Montgomery's third base projection might force the issue. Ramos' footwork around the bag needs polish, and his frame is big enough that his range might eventually be an issue there depending on how he fills out, but in limited action Ramos looks fine enough to justify continued development at the keystone. Now that he's on the 40-man roster, proactive experimentation makes sense so that Ramos can move the moment he needs to.
But the meal ticket here is still Ramos' hit and power combination. His approach (a sticking point at this site in the past) has gotten better, with his chase rates now hovering close to average. He has tended to strikeout at a 20% or lower clip throughout his pro career, even when chase was an issue, which is very impressive considering Ramos' age relative to the levels to which he's been assigned. He has plus bat speed, and a compact, athletic swing that features a very flexible lower half and a fair amount of barrel variability. Ramos often pulls off pitches on the outer edge and swings inside ones he'd ideally either contact or spoil. He does look quite vulnerable out there but it isn't an issue opposing pitchers have consistently been able to exploit just yet. We'll likely learn more about that as he gains experience against upper-level pitchers, and this specific issue is the most concerning thing about Ramos' profile, as it might require a significant adjustment on his part to avoid having a hole in his swing out there. Even as various aspects of his profile remain amorphous, Ramos' offensive performance to this point and optimism that he'll ultimately be able to play at least one infield position well as he matures put him on the Top 100 despite his variance.

Colt Keith|DET

Keith was a talented two-way high schooler who moved from Utah to Arizona to Mississippi over the span of just a few years, and his draft spring was interrupted by the start of the pandemic. Teams mostly understood his commitment to ASU to be pretty loose, and Keith signed for an over-slot $500,000 as a fifth rounder in the 2020 draft. Injuries have limited his reps during his first two full seasons in the Tigers org, most recently a shoulder injury sustained in the middle of 2022. Always an advanced contact bat, Keith added 30 pounds of bulk between when he was drafted and now, and he weighed in at 245 pounds when he showed up in Arizona for the 2022 Fall League.
The hit/power combination he showed when healthy in 2022 (.301/.370/.544) was clearly that of an everyday bat. He produced a 150 wRC+ and was making among the highest rates of hard, airborne contact in the minors when he got hurt, then raked in front of large swaths of scouts in Arizona. Keith clocks fastballs well and is short to the top of the strike zone. He shows enough bend in his lower half to dip and scoop low pitches, but Keith's body has been trending in a stiffer direction as he's bulked up and he may eventually struggle against low breakers for the same reasons Spencer Torkelson does if this continues.
The effects of Keith's increased size are more evident on defense. Once a fair bet to stay on the middle infield, Keith is now fighting just to stay at third. He is stiff and bulky, his actions are well below average, and while he shows you a big arm when he gets to wind up and really let it eat, he struggles to throw from odd platforms. It's feasible a team could live with him playing third base situationally, but it's not ideal, and Colt is a 30-grade defender right now. He is similar to Nolan Gorman in the way he's trended athletically on defense, but there's enough bat to support an everyday fit in an outfield corner and probably also first base if it comes to that.

James Triantos|CHC

Triantos started 2023 on the injured list, having undergone meniscus surgery just before the start of the regular season, the first disruption to an explosive start to his professional career. After his 2021 draft selection, he put up cartoonish numbers on the complex to close out that season. He then spent 2022 at Low-A, where he performed just above league average at 19 years old. Triantos hit the ground running when he came back from the meniscus in early May. He’s still demonstrating a knack for barrel adjustment and has, albeit in a small sample, cut his strikeout rate in half compared to last year. He has just two multi-strikeout games so far this season and is walking more often than he has punched out as of list publication. Triantos' swinging strike rate is just 6%, more statistical evidence of his impressive barrel control. We think his walk rates will trend back toward his semi-aggressive career norms, as he's still a bit chase prone, but he can really hit. He weirdly inside-outs a lot of high fastballs to the opposite field and swings with rotational verve. He's not hitting for a ton of power yet, but he's still just 20 years old.
Defensively, Triantos was drafted as a shortstop, played both middle infield spots in rookie ball, then spent 2022 at third base. Now he's moved back over to the keystone, which he hadn’t manned since 2021. He’s not very quick or smooth, and he lacks the ranginess that might be necessary to hold down a middle infield position. He could be a 40 defender at second, but it's definitely a flaw. The Cubs should give him every opportunity to stay on the dirt because it's Triantos' best shot at profiling as an everyday bat, which we think he'll become. He's similar to Nick Yorke in a few ways and slides up near him on the Top 100.

David Festa|MIN

In the draft, the Twins have targeted big-framed, projectable college pitching — like Festa and Cade Povich, who they traded last summer — from mid-tier schools that don't tend to max out their pitchers. Since turning pro, the 6-foot-6 Festa's velocity has grown year-over-year for the last two years without compromising his ability to throw strikes. Festa averaged 91-93 mph and was up to 96 at Seton Hall, then sat 92-95 in his early post-draft pro outings. The 2022 season was Festa's first full campaign and he posted a 1.11 WHIP across 103.2 innings spent mostly at High-A while his velocity again took a leap, as his heater averaged 95-96 across the entire campaign.
Festa's early 2023 look indicates that he has taken another step forward. He's routinely touching 98, his slider also has premium velocity in the upper-80s, and Festa is great at killing the spin on his mid-80s changeup. He hammers the zone (especially with his fastball) with stuff that has enough movement to stay off barrels in there and to miss bats entirely when he's locating in enticing, chase-inducing locations. Again, this is a (fairly) small school arm with just one full season under his belt and he's already reached (and has the stuff to dominate) Double-A. He has freaky feel for strikes for a 6-foot-6 guy, and his velocity keeps climbing and climbing without detracting from that ability. He's a powerful on-mound athlete who generates plus extension, helping his stuff jump on opposing hitters, and even though they're more average-to-above average pitches from a visual evaluation standpoint, both Festa's slider and changeup played like plus pitches in 2022. Less than two years ago, he was a late draft pick who signed for just $125,000, but now Festa is in the upper levels of the minors with three above-average pitches, an inning-eater's frame, and plus strike-throwing ability. An offseason Pick to Click, Festa's early-season look is strong enough to move him into the overall Top 100. The Twins' glut of optionable young pitchers on their 40-man ultimately makes it unlikely Festa debuts this year.

Aidan Miller|PHI

Miller has among the fastest hitting hands in the entire 2023 draft, his bat speed gives him impressive present power and his frame portends more. He also has a gnarly bat wrap that his bat speed currently enables. As fun as it is to watch him swing, it's often tough for hitters to have such an extreme wrap and succeed against upper-level velocity, but that's still a long way off for Miller. He already swings underneath his fair share of in-zone fastballs because of the looped path his bat takes through the zone, and there are past examples of prospects succeeding with swings like this until they reach the big leagues and then struggling to make adjustments, like Carter Kieboom. Despite the bat wrap, Miller still managed a 2-to-1 ball in play-to-swinging strike ratio against showcase foes according to Synergy, but at some point in the future it might require a tweak. Miller will be 19 on draft day, but he still has one of the more projectable frames in the class and is likely to continue adding power, so much that he has the margin for error to have a below-average hit tool and still profile at third base because of his power.

Marco Luciano|SF

Luciano, a bat speed prodigy, has encountered a few developmental speed bumps since roasting the Cal League in 2021. He's become more whiff-prone, and his last couple of seasons have been impacted by a back injury. Still, he has so much raw power for a potential shortstop that he belongs near the back of the Top 100 despite the risk percolating beneath the surface of his profile. Luciano played just 57 games in 2022 because of a balky back. He was set to pick up winter ball reps in the Dominican Republic for Estrellas Orientales, but was shut down after just five games due to continued discomfort. He turned out to have a stress fracture in his lower back, which the Giants revealed as players reported to camp at the start of 2023. Even with the injury, the Giants put Luciano on their 40-man roster during the winter. He was held back in extended spring training for the first month of the 2023 minor league season and finally went to Richmond in the beginning of May, where he's K'd at a 30% clip but has continued to hit for power.
Perhaps the most important development here is that Luciano looks better at shortstop than he has in the past. He still isn't great at backhanding grounders to his right, but he's playing much lower to the ground now than before he rehabbed the injury and looks much more comfortable fielding choppers in on the grass. He had been projected to right field in our last update, but third base, where Luciano can make most plays moving from right to left, is now his floor. It's a big deal that he stays on the dirt, especially with his uptick in strikeouts. Luciano's bat speed is incredible, but his barrel accuracy is not. He tends to swing through the down-and-in portion of the zone and struggles with anything away from him. He can really only pull hanging breaking balls and tends to shoot the rest of his contact to center field and the opposite way. He's whiffing a lot against fastballs around his hands and against sliders away from him, and not just ones that finish off the plate. It's very likely that Luciano ends up with a well below-average hit tool, but if he stay at shortstop and is hitting for power when he does make contact, he should still be a fine everyday player whose slash line looks like Chris Taylor's.

Cooper Pratt|MIL

Pratt has lightning fast hitting hands and peppers both gaps with extra-base contact. His front side is a little stiff through the contact point, but Pratt rotates with verve through the hips, and hit the ball with power on the showcase circuit. He's likely to grow into more raw power as he fills out and should have a potent hit/pop combination at maturity. Pratt makes some slick defensive plays at short for a prospect his size, especially when he's coming in on the grass, but his lateral range is probably a better long-term fit at third base. There's everyday SS/3B upside here and Pratt ranked 25th on the 2023 draft board.

Jordy Vargas|COL

Vargas is a loose, ultra-projectable, strike-throwing starter prospect with a curvaceous breaking ball. At age 18, Vargas was already sitting 93-95 mph with disruptive tailing action, and he's held that velo as his innings load and per-start output has grown upon entering full-season ball. His curveball is a knee-buckling parabola of death, he's adept at creating tail on his changeup, and his general athleticism and the looseness of his arm action portend continued growth in this area. His fastball's shape doesn't really complement his curveball right now, but Vargas is too young to really worry about that. The ease of his delivery and his ability to throw strikes both facilitate starter projection, and his extremely lanky, broad-shouldered build not only generates hope that he can maintain mid-90s heat under a starter's workload, but also that he may continue to throw harder as he matures. He was an offseason Pick to Click (a guy we think will be on the top 100 within 12 months) and is tracking like a "hit" in that regard. I just want to see him hold his velo and sustain this level of performance at closer to a 100-inning load.

Spencer Jones|NYY

A fantastic two-way prospect in high school, Jones had surgery to repair a fracture in his elbow as a senior and matriculated to Vanderbilt, where he then had Tommy John; he never toed the rubber for the Commodores. When he first began to hit and play some first base, he looked overmatched in every way and was limited to part-time duty. As a full-time starter during his junior year, Jones tweaked his swing throughout the spring and began to look more comfortable, both with his swing and huge body, and with playing against high-level opposing pitchers. He started hitting for big time power while using a low-effort swing, as if he was starting to understand how big and strong he was, and how simple he could keep things at the plate while still doing damage. He still had strikeout issues (a 25% K% in college tends to be a yellow flag, and that's what Jones' was) and probably always will, as his lever length makes him vulnerable in on his hands and Jones' uphill swing might make it impossible for him to get on top of heaters running up and away from him. But Jones has missed huge chunks of time, he's barely focused on hitting, and it's taken him a bit to dial in a swing he seems comfortable with. He'll likely have to make constant adjustments because of his size, but he's already shown some ability to do that and he's now with the org that helped things click for Aaron Judge, who had similar issues as a college prospect. What's more, Jones looks surprisingly comfortable galavanting around in center field. His stride length allows him to eat up enough ground to give him a long-term look there, but it's very rare for athletes this size to stay in center. There's hit tool-related bust risk here, but if Jones develops even a 40-grade hit tool, he's likely to be a very good big leaguer.

Colton Cowser|BAL

A pre-draft 50 FV prospect on the strength of his hit tool projection (once a 70 on the scale, based on his college track record), bat-to-ball cracks began to show for Cowser in 2022 as he punched out at least 25% of the time at each of the three minor league levels at which he played. Cowser's stiff lower half makes it tough for him to bend and barrel low, offspeed pitches, even ones that finish in the strike zone, and similar to Jarred Kelenic, he swung over the top of lots of them throughout the 2022 campaign. This was a stark departure for Cowser, who struck out at a 15% clip in his first pro season, a rate that nearly doubled in 2022. His bat is still quick, and Cowser is capable of punishing pitches to all fields provided he can actually get the bat head to them. He's still able to do this in the very middle and middle-away portion of the strike zone, but not usually on the inner third of the plate. Cowser's contact quality is terrific when he makes it. His hard-hit and barrel rates are about the average among starting big league center fielders, it's just that suddenly his contact rates are not. An above-average straight-line runner, Cowser is still a "maybe" in center field, and historically those players find their way to a corner, usually because superior options tend to occupy the center field job on big league rosters. Reasonable minds can disagree about whether or not Cowser can actually play center, and if you think he can, he fits as a 50 FV prospect despite the recent issues he's had with contact. If you think he belongs in a corner (which is how Cowser is assessed here), then he's more of a platoon outfielder.

Joe Whitman|SF

Whitman is a super smooth lefty with fastball and slider command who has a chance to blow up on a pro strength and conditioning program. After two years with just 5.2 total innings pitched at Purdue, Whitman transferred to Kent State for his junior year and posted a 2.60 ERA with 100 K and 29 BB in 81 IP. He throws quality fastball strikes despite a long arm swing, and his mechanical grace, especially at his size, and his command make him one of the better starting pitching prospects in the draft. Hitters can pick up Whitman's grip as his arm circles behind him, but then they don't see the ball again until it's right on top of them. The pacing of his delivery also catches hitters off guard, as Whitman accelerates his whole operation late in the process. His super quick arm stroke and ride/run life helps 92 play up. He could still stand to get stronger and might throw harder. The movement of his low-80s slider is tight and late, and he can land it for a strike or get a chase. His changeup isn't good or consistent, but we're talking about a guy who barely pitched in a competitive setting until 2023; if he had a good changeup, too, he'd be a top 20 pick. This is a great tip-of-the-iceberg prospect who should be in the late first round mix.

Connor Prielipp|MIN

Prielipp was included in the Twins Imminent Big Leaguers prospect list on the off chance that he raced to the majors to meet the Twins' bullpen needs, like White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet did a few years ago. I called it "bold and arguably stupid" to even consider that a possibility because Prielipp hadn't pitched in an actual game setting for a couple of years due to TJ, and in the days after his first start of the 2023 season, Prielipp felt tightness in his forearm and was shut down again to confirm my stupidity. As a wild freshman at Alabama, Prielipp looked like a potential eventual top five pick because of the quality of his stuff, primarily an upper-90s fastball and a devastating slider. He dealt with a couple periods of injury culminating in Tommy John surgery late in May of 2021, which kept him out for the entire 2022 college season. He threw a bullpen for scouts near the end of the college calendar and then threw again at the 2022 Combine, in both instances sitting 92-94 mph (regularly 94 and up to 95 at the Combine) with a more consistently short arm action than he showed before he blew out. Prielipp's slider was arguably the best pitch in the whole draft, but he came with more relief risk than most of the other college pitchers projected to go in the first two rounds, and he ultimately went in the second.
Prielipp did not pitch at an affiliate after signing with the Twins but was nails during 2023 spring training. Specifically, his slider was spinning with its usual 3,000-ish rpm, but it had added a few ticks of velocity and suddenly resided in the upper-80s, which is rare for a pitch that spins that fast. Prielipp's changeup also looks better now than it did in college. The shorter arm action has helped him sell it better than he was able to at 'Bama, arguably giving Prielipp a greater chance to start than was perceived just a year ago. If you thought Prielipp was likely to wind up as a reliever anyway (which, pre-arm action change, was the overwhelming sense here at FanGraphs), then a fast track scenario in the bullpen makes more sense. I still think the bullpen scenario is more likely. Prielipp was already likely to be on a strict innings limit coming off the surgery, so missing a month to deal with this new forearm tightness doesn't alter his season a ton so long as his stuff is intact when he returns.

Ignacio Alvarez|ATL

Alvarez turned 20 just before list publication and began 2023 with a fairly aggressive assignment to High-A Rome. He's a Yandy Díaz starter kit: Of such muscular build that he is at risk of sliding to third base if he continues to thicken, he has great feel for the strike zone and promising bat-to-ball skills, but his swing is not at all optimized for power and will likely dilute his in-game production if it doesn't change. Obviously, in Yandy's case, this has been fine, and he's turned into a very productive big leaguer even though he slid from shortstop to third base as a prospect and never meaningfully adjusted his swing. Alvarez's early career performance indicates his feel for the zone and for contact are both special enough that he might traverse the same path. While stout and relatively projectionless, Alvarez is loose and rotates with verve in the batter's box, and he moves well on the bases. He often lets the baseball travel deep in the zone and has the power to do damage the other way. He's a well-rounded player likely to stay on the dirt (even if it isn't at shortstop) while bringing above-average OBP and contact production to the party. Power potential is lurking below the surface, just not in the way it typically does for prospects this young, as rather than coming via physical projection, it’s likely to manifest in a swing adjustment that taps into raw pop that already exists. Alvarez is one of the few hitters in the system who has a chance to be more than just a 1-WAR role player.