2016 Election Prediction based on Primary Votes
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Primaries by State & Majority Party AffiliationStats for:
2016 Election
Statistics derived from: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/LibertarianGreen
Unaffiliated
American ConstitutionOther (Including all Write-In)2008 ElectionStatistics derived from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
Independent
GreenY2K ElectionRepublican
Democratic
Green1992 Election ResultsRepublicanDemocratic
2
MAPFinal Numbers By PartyRepublicansDemocratsPercentageJohnsonSteinMcMullinCastle2,976,1500Final Numbers By PartyElection WinnerNaderMcKinneyOtherDem/Green/IndependentGOP/Other
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G00/G00.html
George W. BushAl GoreRalph NaderAll Others
Dem/Green
GOP/OtherSource:
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe1992/federalelections92.pdf
George H.W. Bush
Bill ClintonRoss PerotAll OthersGOP/Perot
GOP/Perot/Other
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Prediction at end of 2016 PrimaryElectoral Votes at StakePrimary Flip from 2012 electionTotal EC VotesTrumpEC VotesClintonEC VotesDifference (as of 12/8/2016)by State
Popular Vote
Popular Vote
Popular Vote
Popular Vote
Popular VoteTotal Popular VotesTotal EC VotesRepublicansEC VotesDemocratsEC Votesby State
Popular Vote
Popular Vote
Popular Vote
Total Popular VoteCombinedCombinedDifferenceElectoral Votes at StakePopular Vote
Popular Vote
Popular VotePopular VoteTotal Popular VoteCombinedCombinedElectoral Votes at StakePopular VotePopular VotePopular VotePopular VoteTotal Popular VoteCombinedCombined
4
Alabama99Trump1,318,2559729,547588,708100.0%44,4679,39121,7122,123,37291,266,5469813,479-McCain6,788013,0062,099,819820,2671,279,552459,2859Alabama941,173692,61118,32314,1651,666,272710,934955,338Alabama9804,283690,080183,10910,5881,688,060987,392997,980
5
Alaska33Trump163,3873116,45446,933100.0%18,7255,7353,86610,441318,6083193,8413123,594-McCain3,78304,979326,197127,377198,82071,4433Alaska167,39879,00428,74710,411285,560107,751177,809Alaska3102,00078,29473,4814,731258,506175,481180,212
6
Arizona 1111Trump1,252,401111,161,16791,234100.0%106,32734,34518,9252,573,165101,230,111101,034,707-McCain11,3013,40613,9502,293,4751,049,4141,244,061194,6478Arizona★781,652685,34145,64519,3781,532,016730,986801,030Arizona8572,086543,050353,74118,1291,487,006925,827943,956
7
Arkansas 6Flip 19926Trump684,8726380,494304,378100.0%29,8299,47313,2554,6138,0991,130,6356638,0176422,310-McCain12,8823,4709,9381,086,617438,662647,955209,2936Arkansas472,940422,76813,42112,652921,781436,189485,592Arkansas6337,324505,82399,1328,374950,653436,456444,830
8
California 5555Clinton4,483,8108,753,788554,269,978100.0%478,500278,65739,596147,24414,181,595555,011,781-8,274,47355Obama108,38138,774128,49113,561,9008,421,6285,140,2723,281,35654California4,567,4295,861,203418,707118,51710,965,8566,279,9104,685,946California543,630,5745,121,3252,296,00683,81611,131,7215,926,5806,010,396
9
Colorado99Clinton1,202,4841,338,8709136,386100.0%144,12138,43728,91711,69915,7192,780,24791,073,629-1,288,6339Obama13,3522,82223,0262,401,4621,304,8071,096,655208,1528Colorado883,748738,22791,43427,9591,741,368829,661911,707Colorado8562,850629,681366,01010,6391,569,180928,860939,499
10
Connecticut77Clinton673,215897,5727224,357100.0%48,67622,8412,1081473611,644,9207629,428-997,7727Obama19,162903451,646,7971,017,024629,773387,2518Connecticut561,094816,01564,45217,9641,459,525880,467579,058Connecticut8578,313682,318348,7716,9301,616,332927,084934,014
11
Delaware33Clinton185,127235,603350,476100.0%14,7576,103706741,444443,8143152,374-255,4593Obama2,4013851,793412,412258,245154,167104,0783Delaware137,288180,0688,3071,959327,622188,375139,247Delaware3102,313126,05459,2132,155289,735161,526163,681
12
District of Columbia33Clinton12,723282,8303270,107100.0%4,9064,2587,858312,575317,367-245,8003Obama9585901,138265,853247,34818,505228,8433
District of Columbia
18,073171,92310,5761,322201,894182,49919,395D. C.320,698192,6199,6814,574227,57230,37934,953
13
Florida 2929Trump4,617,886294,504,975112,911100.0%207,04364,39916,4759,2619,420,039274,045,624-4,282,07427Obama28,1242,88732,0358,390,7444,313,0854,077,659235,42625Florida2,912,7902,912,25397,48840,5795,963,1103,009,7412,953,369Florida252,173,3102,072,6981,053,06715,3175,314,3923,226,3773,241,694
14
Georgia16Flip 199216Trump2,089,104161,877,963211,141100.0%125,3067,67413,0171,1105584,114,732152,048,759151,844,123-McCain1,15825030,1963,924,4861,845,5312,078,955233,42413Georgia1,419,7201,116,23013,43247,4222,596,8041,129,6621,467,142Georgia13995,2521,008,966309,6577,2582,321,1331,304,9091,312,167
15
Hawaii44Clinton128,847266,8914138,044100.0%15,95412,7374,5088,727437,6644120,566-325,8714Obama3,8259792,327453,568330,675122,893207,7824Hawaii137,845205,28621,6233,197367,951226,909141,042Hawaii4136,822179,31053,0033,707372,842189,825193,532
16
Idaho44Trump409,0554189,765219,290100.0%28,3318,49646,4764,4033,729690,2554403,0124236,440-McCain7,175398,456655,122243,654411,468167,8144Idaho336,937138,63712,29213,755501,621150,929350,692Idaho4202,645137,013130,39512,089482,142333,040345,129
17
Illinois 2020Clinton2,146,0153,090,72920944,714100.0%209,59676,80211,6551,1384895,536,424212,031,179-3,419,34821Obama30,94811,83829,0585,522,3713,462,1342,060,2371,401,89722Illinois2,019,4212,589,026103,75929,9174,742,1232,692,7852,049,338Illinois221,734,0962,453,350840,51522,1965,050,1572,574,6112,596,807
18
Indiana11Flip 200811Trump1,557,286111,033,126524,160100.0%133,9937,8411,9377752,734,958111,345,648-1,374,03911Obama9098730,3712,751,0541,375,0351,376,019-98412Indiana1,245,836901,98018,53132,9552,199,302920,5111,278,791Indiana12989,375848,420455,93412,1422,305,8711,445,3091,457,451
19
Iowa 6Flip 20086Trump800,9836653,669147,314100.0%59,18611,47912,3665,33523,0131,566,0317682,379-828,9407Obama8,0141,42316,3671,537,123838,377698,746139,6317Iowa634,373638,51729,37413,2991,315,563667,891647,672Iowa7504,891586,353253,4689,8951,354,607758,359768,254
20
Kansas 6Flip (Primary not relevant)6Trump671,0186427,005244,013100.0%55,40623,5066,5206463011,184,4026699,6556514,765-McCain10,5273510,8901,235,872525,327710,545185,2186Kansas622,332399,27636,08614,5241,072,218435,362636,856Kansas6449,951390,434312,3584,4931,157,236762,309766,802
21
Kentucky88Trump1,202,9718628,854574,117100.0%53,75213,91322,7804381,4411,924,14981,048,4628751,985-McCain15,378010,7951,826,620767,3631,059,257291,8948Kentucky872,492638,89823,1929,6051,544,187662,090882,097Kentucky8617,178665,104203,9446,6741,492,900821,122827,796
22
Louisiana88Trump1,178,6388780,154398,484100.0%37,97814,0318,5473,1296,5552,029,03291,148,2759782,989-McCain6,9979,18713,3131,960,761799,1731,161,588362,4159Louisiana927,871792,34420,47324,9681,765,656812,817952,839Louisiana9733,386815,971211,47829,1821,790,017944,864974,046
23
Maine44Clinton335,5931357,735322,142100.0%38,10514,2511,88733323,988771,8924295,273-421,9234Obama10,6362,900431731,163435,459295,704139,7554Maine†286,616319,95137,1278,123651,817294,739Maine4206,504263,420206,8202,755679,499413,324416,079
24
Maryland 1010Clinton943,1691,677,92810734,759100.0%79,60535,9459,63056634,6032,781,44610959,862-1,629,46710Obama14,7134,74722,8072,631,5961,648,927982,669666,25810Maryland813,7971,145,78253,76812,1332,025,4801,199,550825,930Maryland10707,094988,571281,4147,9671,985,046988,508996,475
25
Massachusetts1111Clinton1,090,8931,995,19611904,303100.0%138,01847,6612,719104,3143,378,801121,108,854-1,904,09712Obama28,8416,55032,6433,080,9851,939,4881,141,497797,99112
Massachusetts
878,5021,616,487173,56434,4312,702,9841,790,051912,933
Massachusetts
12805,0491,318,662632,31217,5512,773,5741,437,3611,454,912
26
Michigan 1616Trump2,279,543162,268,83910,704100.0%172,13651,4638,17716,1392,9874,799,284172,048,639-2,872,57917Obama33,0858,89238,5715,001,7662,914,5562,087,210827,34618Michigan1,953,1392,170,41884,16524,7794,232,5012,254,5831,977,918Michigan181,554,9401,871,182824,81323,7384,274,6732,379,7532,403,491
27
Minnesota 1010Clinton1,322,9511,367,7161044,765100.0%112,97236,98553,0769,45641,6572,944,813101,275,409-1,573,35410Obama30,1525,17426,2802,910,3691,608,6801,301,689306,99110Minnesota1,109,6591,168,266126,69634,0642,438,6851,294,9621,143,723Minnesota10747,8411,020,997562,50616,6042,347,9481,310,3471,326,951
28
Mississippi 6Flip (Primary not relevant)6Trump700,7146485,131215,583100.0%14,4353,7313,9871,3591,209,3576724,5976554,662-McCain4,0111,0345,5611,289,865559,707730,158170,4517Mississippi572,844404,6148,1228,604994,184412,736581,448Mississippi7487,793400,25885,6268,116981,793573,419581,535
29
Missouri 10Flip 199210Trump1,594,511101,071,068523,443100.0%97,35925,4197,07113,092852,808,605111,445,814111,441,911-McCain17,8138019,5872,925,2051,459,8041,465,4015,59711Missouri1,189,9241,111,13838,51520,3152,359,8921,149,6531,210,239Missouri11811,1591,053,873518,7417,7922,391,5651,329,9001,337,692
30
Montana 3Flip 19923Trump279,2403177,709101,531100.0%28,0377,9702,2972961,598497,1473242,7633231,667-McCain3,6862312,163490,302235,376254,92619,5503Montana240,178137,12624,4379,256410,997161,563249,434Montana3144,207154,507107,2254,672410,611251,432256,104
31
Nebraska55Trump495,9615284,494211,467100.0%38,9468,77516,051844,2275452,9794333,3191McCain5,4061,0288,549801,281339,753461,528121,7755Nebraska†433,862231,78024,5406,837697,019256,320440,699Nebraska5344,346217,344174,6872,906739,283519,033521,939
32
Nevada66Clinton512,058539,260627,202100.0%37,3845,26831,4151,125,3855412,827-533,7365Obama6,1501,41113,724967,848541,297426,551114,7464Nevada301,575279,97815,00812,409608,970294,986313,984Nevada4175,828189,148132,5808,762506,318308,408317,170
33
New Hampshire
4Flip 20004Clinton345,790348,52642,736100.0%30,7776,4961,06411,643744,2964316,534-384,8264Obama3,503406,067710,970388,369322,60165,7684
New Hampshire
273,559266,34822,1986,976569,081288,546280,535
New Hampshire
4202,484209,040121,3375,084537,945323,821328,905
34
New Jersey 1414Clinton1,601,9332,148,27814546,345100.0%72,47737,7726,1617,4253,874,046151,613,207-2,215,42215Obama21,2983,63614,6743,868,2372,240,3561,627,881612,47515New Jersey1,284,1731,788,85094,55419,6493,187,2261,883,4041,303,822New Jersey151,356,8651,436,206521,82928,6943,343,5941,878,6941,907,388
35
New Mexico55Clinton319,667385,234565,567100.0%74,5419,8795,8251,5141,659798,3195346,832-472,4225Obama5,3271,5524,025830,158479,301350,857128,4445New Mexico286,417286,78321,2514,154598,605308,034290,571New Mexico5212,824261,61791,8953,650569,986304,719308,369
36
New York 2929Clinton2,819,5334,556,118291,736,585100.0%176,598107,93510,397955130,4497,801,985312,752,771-4,804,94531Obama41,24912,80129,1657,640,9314,858,9952,781,9362,077,05933New York2,403,3744,107,697244,03066,8986,821,9994,351,7272,470,272New York332,346,6493,444,4501,090,72145,1056,926,9253,437,3703,482,475
37
North Carolina15Flip 200815Trump2,362,631152,189,316173,315100.0%130,12612,10547,3864,741,564152,128,474-2,142,65115Obama1,44815838,0584,310,7892,144,2572,166,532-22,27514
North Carolina
1,631,1631,257,692022,4072,911,2621,257,6921,653,570
North Carolina
141,134,6611,114,042357,8645,2832,611,8501,492,5251,497,808
38
North Dakota33Trump216,794393,758123,036100.0%21,4343,7801,8336,761344,3603168,6013141,278-McCain4,18902,553316,621145,467171,15425,6873
North Dakota
174,85295,2849,4868,634288,256104,770183,486
North Dakota
3136,24499,16871,0841,637308,133207,328208,965
39
Ohio 18Flip 200818Trump2,841,005182,394,164446,841100.0%174,49846,27112,5741,88726,0885,496,487202,677,820-2,940,04420Obama42,3378,51839,6315,708,3502,990,8992,717,451273,44821Ohio2,351,2092,186,190117,85750,2014,705,4572,304,0472,401,410Ohio211,894,3101,984,9421,036,42624,2864,939,9642,930,7362,955,022
40
Oklahoma 7Flip (Primary not relevant)7Trump949,1367420,375528,761100.0%83,4811,452,9927960,1657502,496-McCain0001,462,661502,496960,165457,6698Oklahoma744,337474,276015,6161,234,229474,276759,953Oklahoma8592,929473,066319,8784,4861,390,359912,807917,293
41
Oregon 77Clinton782,4031,002,1067219,703100.0%94,23150,00272,5942,001,3367738,475-1,037,2917Obama18,6144,54328,9411,827,8641,060,448767,416293,0327Oregon713,577720,34277,35722,6921,533,968797,699736,269Oregon7475,757621,314354,09111,4811,462,643829,848841,329
42
Pennsylvania 2020Trump2,970,733202,926,44144,292100.0%146,71549,94121,5726,115,402212,655,885-3,276,36321Obama42,977038,0476,013,2723,319,3402,693,932625,40823Pennsylvania2,281,1272,485,967103,39242,6334,913,1192,589,3592,323,760Pennsylvania231,791,8412,239,164902,66726,1384,959,8102,694,5082,720,646
43
Rhode Island 44Clinton180,543252,525471,982100.0%14,7466,22010,110464,1444165,391-296,5714Obama4,8297974,178471,766302,197169,569132,6284Rhode Island130,555249,50825,0523,997409,112274,560134,552Rhode Island4131,601213,299105,0453,533453,478236,646240,179
44
South Carolina 9Flip (Primary not relevant)9Trump1,155,3899855,373300,016100.0%49,20413,03421,0165,7653,2462,103,02781,034,8968862,449-McCain5,0534,46114,1101,920,969871,9631,049,006177,0438
South Carolina
785,937565,56120,20011,0191,382,717585,761796,956
South Carolina
8577,507479,514138,8726,6341,202,527716,379723,013
45
South Dakota 3Flip (Primary not relevant)3Trump227,7213117,458110,263100.0%20,8504,064370,0933203,0543170,924-McCain4,26703,730381,975175,191206,78431,5933
South Dakota
190,700118,80406,765316,269118,804197,465
South Dakota
3136,718124,88873,2951,353336,254210,013211,366
46
Tennessee 11Flip 199211Trump1,522,92511870,695652,230100.0%70,39715,99311,9911,58414,4422,508,027111,479,178111,087,437-McCain11,5602,49919,0752,599,7491,101,4961,498,253396,75711Tennessee1,061,949981,72019,78112,7312,076,1811,001,5011,074,680Tennessee11841,300933,521199,9687,8491,982,6381,041,2681,049,117
47
Texas38Flip (Primary not relevant)38Trump4,685,047383,877,868807,179100.0%283,49271,55842,3664,2614,6348,969,226344,479,328343,528,633-McCain5,75190963,1748,077,7953,535,2934,542,5021,007,20932Texas3,799,6392,433,746137,99436,2586,407,6372,571,7403,835,897Texas322,496,0712,281,8151,354,78121,3516,154,0183,850,8523,872,203
48
Utah 66Trump515,2316310,676204,555100.0%39,6089,438243,6908,0324,7551,131,4305596,0305327,670-McCain8,41698219,272952,370337,068615,302278,2345Utah515,096203,05335,85016,755770,754238,903531,851Utah5322,632183,429203,40034,608744,069526,032560,640
49
Vermont 33Clinton95,369178,573383,204100.0%10,0786,75829,689320,467398,974-219,2623Obama3,339663,405325,046222,667102,379120,2883Vermont119,775149,02220,3745,137294,308169,396124,912Vermont388,122133,59265,9911,996289,701154,113156,109
50
Virginia13Flip 200013Clinton1,769,4431,981,47313212,030100.0%118,27427,63854,05431,8703,982,752131,725,005-1,959,53213Obama11,4832,34424,8963,723,2601,973,3591,749,901223,45813Virginia1,437,4901,217,29059,39825,2692,739,4471,276,6881,462,759Virginia131,150,5171,038,650348,63920,8592,558,6651,499,1561,520,015
51
Washington 1212Clinton1,221,7471,742,71812520,971100.0%160,87958,41717,623115,6353,317,019111,229,216-1,750,84811Obama29,4893,81923,5063,036,8781,784,1561,252,722531,43411Washington1,108,8641,247,652103,00227,9152,487,4331,350,6541,136,779Washington11731,234993,037541,78022,1792,288,2301,273,0141,295,193
52
West Virginia55Trump489,3715188,794300,577100.0%23,0048,0753,807713,0515397,4665303,857-McCain7,2192,3552,554713,451313,431400,02086,5895
West Virginia
336,475295,49710,6805,472648,124306,177341,947
West Virginia
5241,974331,001108,8291,907683,711350,803352,710
53
Wisconsin 10Flip 200810Trump1,405,284101,382,53622,748100.0%106,67431,07211,85512,16226,5672,976,150101,262,393-1,677,21110Obama17,6054,21621,9922,983,4171,699,0321,284,385414,64711Wisconsin1,237,2791,242,98794,07024,2712,598,6071,337,0571,261,550Wisconsin11930,8551,041,066544,47914,7142,531,1141,475,3341,490,048
54
Wyoming3Flip (Primary not relevant)3Trump174,419355,973118,446100.0%13,2872,5152,04210,552258,7883164,958382,868-McCain2,52504,307254,65885,393169,26583,8723Wyoming147,94760,4814,6255,298218,35165,106153,245Wyoming379,34768,16051,2631,855200,625130,610132,465
55
Puerto RicoDisputed Swing State WI22,748NANA538Tallys All States/DC50,456,00250,999,8972,882,9551,066,246105,405,100Puerto Rico0Source
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=1992&datatype=national&def=1&f=0&off=0&elect=0
56
US Virgin IslandsDiscrepancies:PA44,292NANA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000
(National Results)
538
57
Northern Mariana IslandsMI10,704NANAPresidential candidatePartyHome statePopular voteElectoral
vote
Running matePresidential candidatePartyHome statePopular voteElectoral
vote
Running mate
58
Democrats AbroadNACountPct
Vice-presidential candidate
Home state
Elect. voteCountPctVice-presidential candidateHome stateElect. vote
59
GuamNANA
George Walker Bush
RepublicanTexas50,456,00247.87%271
Richard Bruce "Dick" Cheney
Wyoming271William Jefferson ClintonDemocraticArkansas44,909,80643.01%370Albert Arnold Gore, Jr.Tennessee370
60
American SamoaNANA
Albert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr.
DemocraticTennessee50,999,89748.38%266
Joseph Isadore "Joe" Lieberman
Connecticut266George H. W. Bush (Incumbent)RepublicanTexas39,104,55037.45%168James Danforth QuayleIndiana168
61
Tallys All States/Territories53853862,984,82430665,931,254232514,489,2211,457,217705,6321,100,214136,792,53553859,948,32317369,498,516365Obama739,034161,797966,150131,313,82070,399,34760,914,473Ralph NaderGreenConnecticut2,882,9552.74%0
Winona LaDuke
Minnesota0Henry Ross PerotIndependentTexas19,743,82118.91%0James Bond StockdaleCalifornia0
62
2,946,430129,446,839202336Pat BuchananReformVirginia448,8950.43%0
Ezola B. Foster
California0Andre Verne MarrouLibertarianAlaska290,0870.28%0Nancy LordNevada0
63
Harry BrowneLibertarianTennessee384,4310.36%0Art OlivierCalifornia0Bo GritzPopulistNevada106,1520.10%0Cy MinettNew Mexico0
64
Howard PhillipsConstitutionVirginia98,0200.09%0
Curtis Frazier
Missouri0Lenora FulaniNew Alliance PartyNew York73,6220.07%0Maria MunozCalifornia0
65
John HagelinNatural LawIowa83,7140.08%0
Nat Goldhaber
California0Howard PhillipsU.S. Taxpayers PartyVirginia43,3690.04%0Albion Knight, Jr.Florida0
66
Other51,1860.05%OtherOther152,5160.13%Other
67
(abstention)[a]
1
(abstention)[a]
1Total104,423,923100%538538
68
Total105,405,100100%538538Needed to win270270
69
Needed to win270270
70
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