Normalised MEC-E (fish example)
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Notes
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It's possible there are mistakes in this.
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A version of this using Normalised MEC (i.e., with no empirical uncertainty) can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E0eKGhwCdAXGGFboAAcbg5pWa2HT489oe2XKiruuEp0/edit?usp=sharing
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That version also contains notes on how I came up with this and what I'm still unsure about.
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Normalised MEC
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Outcome (O)Theory (T)Credence assigned
Non-normalised choice-worthiness (CW) of O
Expected CW of OMean of T's CW function
Variance of T's CW function
Overall mean
Overall variance
Normalised CW
Expected CW of O
Variance of T's normalised CW functions (just to check I did my calculations right)
Ranges of normalised CW
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"Fish being harmed"T10.25-100-25-403100-20.833333331744.166667-60.6322427-62.868747341744.16666782.50985604
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T20.750-1.666666667158.3333333-63.614248881744.16666782.97510724
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"Devon enjoying a meal a lot"T10.25101021.87761334-17.34875115
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T20.7510-30.42420599
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"Dolphins being harmed"T10.25-30-18.75-8.125970671-87.08097759
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T20.75-15-113.3993132
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XXX
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Action (A)Outcome (O)Probability A leads to O
Normalised expected EC, accounting for empirical uncertainty (Normalised EC-E)
What should be chosen?
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Fish curryFish being harmed0.8-153.4572891Tofu curry
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Devon enjoying a meal a lot
0.95
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Dolphins being harmed0.4
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Tofu curryFish being harmed0.1-19.31529919
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Devon enjoying a meal a lot
0.5
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Dolphins being harmed0.05
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