NCAAM 2019 Model Tracker
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RISKNETROIWLPWIN %AVG PODDSEDGE
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Staking system
250.1634.4313.76%7749260.94%52.38%-1108.56%
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Flat betting140.8023.1016.41%7749260.94%52.38%-1108.56%
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What is this?
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This is a Google Sheet that tracks my NCAAM model plays. I typically don't bet NCAAM until around conference tournament time, which is why I only started tracking model plays in early February.
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How do I get the model plays?
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Model plays were made available to those who donated $20 or more to Doctors Without Borders from February 12-13 and February 27-28. MODEL PLAY ACCESS IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE.
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How does it work?
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The model pulls in various data points and gives each of the 353 teams a rating I call "Expected Points Added". This metric measures how many points a team would gain or lose on a neutral court against a league average team.
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How are model plays determined?
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For each matchup, each team's EPA and home court advantage is combined to spit out a model spread which is then compared to the Vegas line. Any disagreement of three points or more becomes a model play. 3 points of disagreement is a 1 unit play; 4 points of disagreement is a 2 unit play; 5.382 points of disagreement is a 3.382 unit play etc. The units are part of the "to win amount".
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What if I have a different line?
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If the line has moved in favor of the model play, add 0.5 units to the "to win" amount for each 0.5 points the spread has moved. If it has moved against the model play, subtract 0.5 units for each 0.5 points. If the process of subtracting units brings a play below 1 unit, it is no longer a model play. You should NOT buy any points and/or pay any juice above -110. Buying points and laying excessive juice is mathematically indisputibly a poor decision.
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What book do you use?
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I use various books, including (but not limited to) Pinnacle, 5Dimes, BetOnline, and Bookmaker.
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What is the "flat" line in Row 4 above?
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That is how the model would perform using a flat one unit "to win" stake as opposed to the scaled stake mentioned.
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When is this updated?
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Typically by 9 AM CST on weekday mornings, weekends can vary depending on what I'm up to.
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