ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAP
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Nation : Panama Of America
2
-National Projection
Roux + AmeglioLombanaRoux - CD
Cortizo + Blandón - PP
CortizoGómezBlandón - PANMéndez
-Only Poll With Province Breakdown
3
PollsterPolling DateSample SizeSample
Percentage
JR Mulino
Ricardo Lombana
Rómulo Roux
Martín Torrijos
Gabriel Carrizo
Zulay Rodríguez
Melitón Arrocha
Maribel Gordón
ASP GAINSourcePollsterPolling DateSample SizeSample
Percentage
JR Mulino
Ricardo Lombana
Rómulo Roux
Martín Torrijos
Gabriel Carrizo
Zulay Rodríguez
Melitón Arrocha
Maribel Gordón
4
ASP / Save Panama
MOCA / Another Way
LBV / Good Comes
PP / People'sVTP / Let's Go
IND PRD / Independent Democratic Revolutionary
PAIS / Independent Alternative
FAD / Broad Democracy
FROM VTP
ASP / Save Panama
MOCA / Another Way
LBV / Good Comes
PP / People'sVTP / Let's Go
IND PRD / Independent Democratic Revolutionary
PAIS / Independent Alternative
FAD / Broad Democracy
5
Center-RightBig TentCenter-RightCenterCenter-Left
Lean-Left Big Tent
Right-wing
Left-wing Big Tent
ASP AHEADCenter-RightBig TentCenter-RightCenterCenter-Left
Lean-Left Big Tent
Right-wing
Left-wing Big Tent
6
Vote Share Projection
04/24~05/018,002100.00%33.42%18.20%17.51%15.13%8.30%4.31%1.95%1.18%15.22%"Partisan Cover"0.87477365811.40981026031.15642667710.90806616190.98367040510.83077585830.79822718851.1637111149
7
0.33426310510.18195721860.17510932410.15134436030.08297219880.04305850490.01946895580.01182633251.0000000000
Modified Average
04/27~05/012,401100.00%38.21%12.91%15.14%16.67%8.43%5.18%2.44%1.02%
8
"Last Election Difference"
"+30.56pp""-0.58pp""-11.21pp""+13.15pp""-25.05pp""-0.46pp""-6.91pp""+0.49pp"0.38211382110.12906504070.15142276420.16666666670.08434959350.05182926830.02439024390.01016260161.0000000000
9
"National Swing"1.05857642900.96894899200.60969803560.42839554870.24877364610.90355074690.21969730351.7161082739
https://www.tribunal-electoral.gob.pa/eventos-electorales/plan-general-elecciones-plagel/
Mercadeo Planificado
04/27~05/012,401100.00%37.60%12.70%14.90%16.40%8.30%5.10%2.40%1.00%0.9840000000
10
Average04/24~05/018,002100.00%31.64%17.22%16.57%14.32%7.85%4.08%1.84%1.12%
11
0.31636287500.17221316960.16573198880.14323967030.07852892810.04075266510.01842636760.01119301680.9464486813
12
Infodata 36004/22~04/244005.00%26.10%14.10%24.80%12.10%11.60%3.20%1.60%1.00%
https://www.shokmultimedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Estudio-de-Opinion-Electoral-Infodata360-Abr25-v2.pdf
13
0.01304645880.00704808690.01239663520.00604835830.00579842610.00159956580.00079978290.0004998643
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Marketing04/24~04/241,20415.05%29.42%13.03%18.29%12.77%7.85%3.45%1.90%0.52%
https://marketinggroup.com.pa/4188-2/
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0.04426796720.01960253090.02752143410.01921307670.01181344580.00519272340.00285599790.0007789085
16
Colegio04/26~04/261932.41%19.69%47.67%7.77%14.51%1.04%3.11%1.55%2.07%
https://twitter.com/colegiocpapma/status/1784065050820358211
17
0.00474871110.01149687940.00187449120.00349905030.00024993220.00074979650.00037489820.0004998643
18
Gallup04/23~04/2796212.02%33.40%17.40%13.30%17.40%7.70%5.77%2.60%2.50%
https://www.critica.com.pa/nacional/ring-ring-ring-alo-alo-alo-contesten-el-telefono-que-mulino-ya-gano-669276
19
0.04013586820.02090908260.01598224880.02090908260.00925284720.00692919510.00312431930.0030041552
20
Doxa04/23~04/291,02912.85%35.00%16.00%11.00%14.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%
https://arcamediaendirecto.files.wordpress.com/2024/05/presentacion-tercera-encuesta_doxa_final.pdf
21
0.04498778900.02056584640.01413901940.01799511560.00514146160.00385609620.00257073080.0012853654
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Infodata 36004/27~04/291,20015.00%27.00%15.00%25.00%12.00%11.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%
https://www.shokmultimedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Estudio-de-Opinion-Electoral-Infodata360-Abr30.pdf
23
0.04048901010.02249389450.03748982420.01799511560.01649552260.00599837190.00149959300.0014995930
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Mercadeo Planificado
04/27~05/012,40130.00%37.60%12.70%14.90%16.40%8.30%5.10%2.40%1.00%
https://www.prensa.com/politica/quieres-saber-el-resultado-de-la-nueva-encuesta-de-la-prensa-entra-aqui//
25
0.11281637840.03810553210.04470649040.04920714380.02490361540.01530222150.00720104540.0030004356
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Universidad Panamá
05/01~05/016147.67%20.68%41.69%15.15%10.91%6.35%1.47%0.00%0.81%
https://twitter.com/fargote507/status/1785705794924613869
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0.01587069220.03199131660.01162184550.00837272740.00487367710.00112469470.00000000000.0006248304
28
29
-Province Projections
30
Poll+SwingSwing BasePoll Base
31
ProvinceTypeJR Mulino
Ricardo Lombana
Rómulo Roux
Martín Torrijos
Gabriel Carrizo
Zulay Rodríguez
Melitón Arrocha
Maribel Gordón
MarginTotalCharacterization / CallProvinceTypeJR Mulino
Ricardo Lombana
Rómulo Roux
Martín Torrijos
Gabriel Carrizo
Zulay Rodríguez
Melitón Arrocha
Maribel Gordón
MarginTotalCharacterization / CallProvinceTypeJR Mulino
Ricardo Lombana
Rómulo Roux
Martín Torrijos
Gabriel Carrizo
Zulay Rodríguez
Melitón Arrocha
Maribel Gordón
MarginTotalCharacterization / Call
32
ASP / Save Panama
MOCA / Another Way
LBV / Good Comes
PP / People'sVTP / Let's Go
IND PRD / Independent Democratic Revolutionary
PAIS / Independent Alternative
FAD / Broad Democracy
ASP / Save Panama
MOCA / Another Way
LBV / Good Comes
PP / People'sVTP / Let's Go
IND PRD / Independent Democratic Revolutionary
PAIS / Independent Alternative
FAD / Broad Democracy
ASP / Save Panama
MOCA / Another Way
LBV / Good Comes
PP / People'sVTP / Let's Go
IND PRD / Independent Democratic Revolutionary
PAIS / Independent Alternative
FAD / Broad Democracy
33
Center-RightBig TentCenter-RightCenterCenter-Left
Lean-Left Big Tent
Right-wing
Left-wing Big Tent
Center-RightBig TentCenter-RightCenterCenter-Left
Lean-Left Big Tent
Right-wing
Left-wing Big Tent
Center-RightBig TentCenter-RightCenterCenter-Left
Lean-Left Big Tent
Right-wing
Left-wing Big Tent
34
NATIONALProjection33.42%18.20%17.51%15.13%8.30%4.31%1.95%1.18%15.22%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
NATIONALProjection33.42%18.20%17.51%15.13%8.30%4.31%1.95%1.18%15.22%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
NATIONALProjection33.42%18.20%17.51%15.13%8.30%4.31%1.95%1.18%15.22%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
35
ASP AHEADASP AHEADASP AHEAD
36
Bocas Del ToroProjection30.38%9.58%23.56%12.93%14.11%5.93%1.79%1.71%6.82%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
Bocas Del ToroProjection37.84%10.29%20.46%14.42%7.63%3.17%2.76%3.42%17.38%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
Bocas Del ToroProjection22.93%8.88%26.67%11.44%20.58%8.69%0.81%0.00%3.74%100.00%
LBV HOLD OVER ASP
37
ASP EDGEEstimation38.57%10.48%20.85%14.70%7.77%3.23%2.82%3.49%101.92%ASP AHEADEstimation22.57%8.74%26.25%11.26%20.26%8.56%0.80%0.00%98.44%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
38
CocléProjection30.87%21.30%15.60%18.52%7.33%2.69%2.32%1.36%9.57%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
CocléProjection33.34%16.77%17.90%15.53%8.62%3.69%3.01%1.14%15.45%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
CocléProjection28.39%25.83%13.30%21.51%6.04%1.70%1.63%1.59%2.56%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
39
ASP EDGEEstimation32.22%16.20%17.29%15.01%8.33%3.56%2.91%1.10%96.62%ASP AHEADEstimation29.13%26.50%13.65%22.07%6.20%1.74%1.68%1.63%102.59%
EXTREMELY CLOSE
40
ColónProjection37.66%10.48%22.19%15.98%4.99%5.13%1.30%2.26%15.47%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
ColónProjection38.30%9.62%19.98%14.98%8.14%5.05%1.61%2.33%18.33%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
ColónProjection37.02%11.34%24.41%16.98%1.85%5.21%1.00%2.19%12.61%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
41
ASP AHEADEstimation40.17%10.09%20.95%15.72%8.54%5.30%1.69%2.44%104.88%ASP AHEADEstimation35.43%10.86%23.36%16.25%1.77%4.98%0.96%2.09%95.71%ASP AHEAD
42
ChiriquíProjection27.05%22.46%16.65%17.29%8.68%4.57%2.75%0.55%4.60%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
ChiriquíProjection29.27%25.11%14.97%15.37%8.39%3.81%2.45%0.63%4.16%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
ChiriquíProjection24.83%19.80%18.33%19.22%8.98%5.33%3.04%0.47%5.03%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
43
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Estimation27.83%23.88%14.23%14.61%7.98%3.62%2.33%0.60%95.08%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Estimation24.76%19.74%18.27%19.16%8.95%5.32%3.03%0.47%99.69%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
44
DariénProjection34.79%4.60%17.79%29.06%9.92%2.49%0.94%0.40%5.73%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
DariénProjection38.74%3.73%20.32%21.31%11.95%1.53%1.78%0.65%17.43%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
DariénProjection30.85%5.47%15.27%36.81%7.89%3.44%0.11%0.16%5.96%100.00%
PP GAIN FROM VTP
45
ASP EDGEEstimation38.60%3.71%20.25%21.23%11.91%1.52%1.77%0.65%99.65%ASP AHEADEstimation29.28%5.19%14.49%34.94%7.49%3.27%0.10%0.15%94.92%PP EDGE
46
HerreraProjection16.73%28.55%18.45%18.40%11.60%2.00%3.21%1.06%10.10%100.00%
MOCA GAIN FROM VTP
HerreraProjection23.53%21.04%12.29%22.58%12.02%2.82%5.28%0.45%0.95%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
HerreraProjection9.94%36.06%24.61%14.22%11.17%1.19%1.14%1.67%11.45%100.00%
MOCA GAIN FROM VTP
47
MOCA EDGEEstimation18.97%16.96%9.90%18.20%9.69%2.27%4.26%0.37%80.60%
EXTREMELY CLOSE
Estimation9.71%35.25%24.05%13.89%10.92%1.16%1.12%1.63%97.73%
MOCA AHEAD
48
Los SantosProjection29.28%25.00%20.57%14.40%8.40%0.94%1.21%0.19%4.28%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
Los SantosProjection31.96%15.10%16.95%20.17%11.13%1.89%2.42%0.38%11.79%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
Los SantosProjection26.61%34.90%24.19%8.63%5.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%8.29%100.00%
MOCA GAIN FROM VTP
49
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Estimation30.09%14.22%15.96%18.99%10.48%1.78%2.28%0.36%94.17%ASP AHEADEstimation29.13%38.21%26.48%9.44%6.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%109.46%MOCA EDGE
50
PanamáProjection38.96%18.23%15.61%13.06%7.42%4.01%1.60%1.11%20.72%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
PanamáProjection34.34%20.73%17.72%12.99%7.21%5.02%0.97%1.01%13.61%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
PanamáProjection43.57%15.73%13.50%13.14%7.62%3.00%2.23%1.20%27.84%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
51
ASP AHEADEstimation36.26%21.89%18.71%13.71%7.62%5.30%1.02%1.07%105.59%ASP AHEADEstimation42.16%15.23%13.07%12.71%7.38%2.91%2.16%1.16%96.77%ASP AHEAD
52
Panamá OesteProjection37.02%20.26%17.14%12.25%6.02%3.82%2.18%1.31%16.76%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
Panamá OesteProjection35.41%19.01%18.74%12.57%7.01%5.39%1.00%0.87%16.40%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
Panamá OesteProjection38.62%21.50%15.55%11.94%5.03%2.25%3.36%1.75%17.12%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM LBV
53
ASP AHEADEstimation37.91%20.35%20.06%13.45%7.51%5.77%1.07%0.93%107.05%ASP AHEADEstimation38.49%21.43%15.50%11.90%5.02%2.24%3.35%1.75%99.67%ASP AHEAD
54
VeraguasProjection23.17%25.15%20.65%16.18%8.19%3.95%1.38%1.32%1.98%100.00%
MOCA GAIN FROM VTP
VeraguasProjection32.64%17.71%17.74%16.26%9.07%2.77%2.77%1.05%14.90%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
VeraguasProjection13.71%32.59%23.56%16.10%7.32%5.13%0.00%1.60%9.03%100.00%
MOCA GAIN FROM VTP
55
EXTREMELY CLOSE
Estimation31.58%17.14%17.16%15.73%8.77%2.68%2.68%1.02%96.77%ASP AHEADEstimation14.00%33.27%24.05%16.44%7.48%5.23%0.00%1.63%102.10%MOCA EDGE
56
Kuna YalaProjection23.34%1.94%21.66%21.16%18.91%9.90%1.99%1.09%1.68%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
Kuna YalaProjection32.30%1.83%16.95%28.05%14.67%1.46%3.41%1.33%4.25%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
Kuna YalaProjection14.39%2.05%26.37%14.28%23.15%18.34%0.58%0.85%3.22%100.00%
LBV GAIN FROM VTP
57
EXTREMELY CLOSE
Estimation27.90%1.58%14.64%24.23%12.67%1.26%2.94%1.15%86.38%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Estimation13.82%1.97%25.33%13.71%22.23%17.61%0.56%0.81%96.05%
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
58
Ngäbe BugléProjection20.83%3.56%20.43%20.21%18.15%11.24%3.24%2.33%0.41%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
Ngäbe BugléProjection27.28%5.07%14.48%26.14%13.15%4.15%5.91%3.81%1.14%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
Ngäbe BugléProjection14.39%2.05%26.37%14.28%23.15%18.34%0.58%0.85%0.11%100.00%
ASP GAIN FROM VTP
59
EXTREMELY CLOSE
Estimation21.70%4.04%11.52%20.79%10.46%3.30%4.70%3.03%79.53%
EXTREMELY CLOSE
Estimation13.82%1.97%25.33%13.71%22.23%17.61%0.56%0.81%96.05%
EXTREMELY CLOSE
60
ExteriorProjection12.51%51.47%6.42%12.31%6.75%8.71%1.28%0.56%38.95%100.00%
MOCA HOLD OVER ASP
ExteriorProjection12.51%51.47%6.42%12.31%6.75%8.71%1.28%0.56%38.95%100.00%
MOCA HOLD OVER ASP
61
MOCA AHEAD
Estimation11.43%47.01%5.86%11.25%6.16%7.95%1.17%0.51%91.35%
MOCA AHEAD
62
JR Mulino
Ricardo Lombana
Rómulo Roux
Martín Torrijos
Gabriel Carrizo
Zulay Rodríguez
Melitón Arrocha
Maribel Gordón
Roux + AmeglioLombanaRoux - CD
Cortizo + Blandón - PP
CortizoGómezBlandón - PANMéndez
63
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