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Crowns US Dollars Cost per Crown Cost per Crate (15 Pack)Cost per Crate (4 Pack)Cost per Crate (Single)
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750$7.99$0.0107$3.55$4.00$4.26
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1500$14.99$0.0100$3.33$3.75$4.00
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3000$23.99$0.0080$2.67$3.00$3.20
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5500$39.99$0.0073$2.42$2.73$2.91
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14000$99.99$0.0071$2.38$2.68$2.86
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21000$149.99$0.0071$2.38$2.68$2.86
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Reward Level Times Dropped from 8907 Crates [1] Chance per Crate [6] Average Cost To Get At Least One (15 pack, 39.99 USD) [2]Average Cost to Get Enough Gems [3] [4]Number of Gems to Purchase
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Radiant Apex110.12%$1,962.48N/AN/A
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Apex1792.01%$120.60$93.22400
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Legendary127714.34%$16.90$34.51100
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Epic189821.31%$11.37$22.7740
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Superior [5]764685.84%$2.82$8.4416
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Fine640471.90%$3.37$4.075
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Common871797.87%$2.48$2.423
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[1] Crown Crate Drop rates retrieved from Faunter's Crown Crate Tracker:
10,000 simulations for each scenario:
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n1kdrywYmgjx290QwGJj9TT1Y8z4GfEMhvQ8kQnKL5g/edit#gid=0
Crates OpenedAverage Gems Earned
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[2] Pricing was set to the $39.99 package as its cost per crown nearly matched the larger packages while being more affordable (i.e more likely to be purchased). The 15 Crown Crate Pack was used because it is vastly more efficient than the other options.13.37
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415.96
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[3] Utilizes 80,000 simulated crate openings to achieve the expotential growth of Gem gains. Restarts for each season of Crown Crate, considering that you will no longer have duplicates. Data taken from here:1586.61
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30228.38
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zt5oj7PWNFFaTykgXhWQOOkVl1ekHAJgcJpueRN3C40/htmlview45404.79
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And here:1001217.48
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https://www.reddit.com/r/elderscrollsonline/comments/5gok1a/discussion_demystifying_crown_crate_drop_chances/?st=jg5o4uyo&sh=64758cb8Linear Regression y=ax+b used for Epic-ApexLinear Regression y=ax+b used Common-Superior
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[4] Regression must be adjusted for low counts to maintain accuracy, as you cannot open negative crates. Also, Common gem purchase equals only 1 crate opened as you are are guaranteed to to generate a common or enough gems to obtain the common.a12.38538839a6.101319018
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b-76.36845596b-5.245460123
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[5] Superior drops seem to be chosen as a filler by ZOS, appearing more than Fine. This makes sense, considering it raises the perceived value of the Crate.
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[6] It is very possible that ZOS has a mechanic to act as "bad luck protection". However, this does not seem to apply to Radiant Apex rewards if this is in fact the case
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