ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAA
1
29.8%
2
Stock Market Data Used in "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press, 2000, 2005, 2015, updated
41.4%
3
Robert J. Shiller
3 year S&P 500
4
return
5
From Yld Curve
6
S&P10 periodJul - Jun
inversion Diff
Long3 mo T billDiff
7
Comp.Mov avgReturnQtrly startInterest
Inversion Red
8
DatePGreen = 2nd P yrIFA calcRate GS10
Positive into "defense"
9
1871.014.445.3235.6% avg
10
1871.024.505.32
11
1871.034.615.33
12
1871.044.745.33
13
1871.054.865.33
14
1871.064.825.34
15
1871.074.735.34
16
1871.084.795.34
17
1871.094.845.35
18
1871.14.595.35
19
1871.114.645.35
20
1871.124.745.36
21
1872.014.865.36
22
1872.024.885.38
23
1872.035.045.40
24
1872.045.185.42
25
1872.055.185.43
26
1872.065.135.45
27
1872.075.105.47
28
1872.085.045.49
29
1872.094.955.51
30
1872.14.975.53
31
1872.114.955.54
32
1872.125.075.56
33
1873.015.115.58
34
1873.025.155.57
35
1873.035.115.56
36
1873.045.045.55
37
1873.055.055.54
38
1873.064.985.53
39
1873.074.975.53
40
1873.084.975.52
41
1873.094.595.51
42
1873.14.195.50
43
1873.114.045.49
44
1873.124.425.48
45
1874.014.665.47
46
1874.024.805.44
47
1874.034.735.40
48
1874.044.605.37
49
1874.054.485.34
50
1874.064.465.30
51
1874.074.465.27
52
1874.084.475.24
53
1874.094.545.20
54
1874.14.535.17
55
1874.114.575.14
56
1874.124.545.10
57
1875.014.545.07
58
1875.024.535.03
59
1875.034.594.99
60
1875.044.654.95
61
1875.054.474.91
62
1875.064.384.87
63
1875.074.394.83
64
1875.084.414.79
65
1875.094.374.75
66
1875.14.304.71
67
1875.114.374.67
68
1875.124.374.63
69
1876.014.464.59
70
1876.024.524.58
71
1876.034.514.57
72
1876.044.344.56
73
1876.054.184.54
74
1876.064.154.53
75
1876.074.104.52
76
1876.083.934.51
77
1876.093.694.50
78
1876.13.674.49
79
1876.113.604.47
80
1876.123.584.46
81
1877.013.554.45
82
1877.023.344.44
83
1877.033.174.43
84
1877.042.944.42
85
1877.052.944.41
86
1877.062.734.40
87
1877.072.854.40
88
1877.083.054.39
89
1877.093.244.38
90
1877.13.314.37
91
1877.113.264.36
92
1877.123.254.35
93
1878.013.254.34
94
1878.023.184.33
95
1878.033.244.32
96
1878.043.334.31
97
1878.053.344.30
98
1878.063.414.29
99
1878.073.484.28
100
1878.083.454.27