Yld curve inversion.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	H	I	J	M	N
1									29.8%
2	Stock Market Data Used in "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press, 2000, 2005, 2015, updated								41.4%
3	Robert J. Shiller				3 year S&P 500
4					return
5					From Yld Curve
6		S&P	10 period	Jul - Jun	inversion Diff	Long	3 mo T bill	Diff
7		Comp.	Mov avg	Return	Qtrly start	Interest		Inversion Red
8	Date	P		Green = 2nd P yr	IFA calc	Rate GS10		Positive into "defense"

9	1871.01	4.44				5.32			35.6%	avg
10	1871.02	4.50				5.32
11	1871.03	4.61				5.33
12	1871.04	4.74				5.33
13	1871.05	4.86				5.33
14	1871.06	4.82				5.34
15	1871.07	4.73				5.34
16	1871.08	4.79				5.34
17	1871.09	4.84				5.35
18	1871.1	4.59				5.35
19	1871.11	4.64				5.35
20	1871.12	4.74				5.36
21	1872.01	4.86				5.36
22	1872.02	4.88				5.38
23	1872.03	5.04				5.40
24	1872.04	5.18				5.42
25	1872.05	5.18				5.43
26	1872.06	5.13				5.45
27	1872.07	5.10				5.47
28	1872.08	5.04				5.49
29	1872.09	4.95				5.51
30	1872.1	4.97				5.53
31	1872.11	4.95				5.54
32	1872.12	5.07				5.56
33	1873.01	5.11				5.58
34	1873.02	5.15				5.57
35	1873.03	5.11				5.56
36	1873.04	5.04				5.55
37	1873.05	5.05				5.54
38	1873.06	4.98				5.53
39	1873.07	4.97				5.53
40	1873.08	4.97				5.52
41	1873.09	4.59				5.51
42	1873.1	4.19				5.50
43	1873.11	4.04				5.49
44	1873.12	4.42				5.48
45	1874.01	4.66				5.47
46	1874.02	4.80				5.44
47	1874.03	4.73				5.40
48	1874.04	4.60				5.37
49	1874.05	4.48				5.34
50	1874.06	4.46				5.30
51	1874.07	4.46				5.27
52	1874.08	4.47				5.24
53	1874.09	4.54				5.20
54	1874.1	4.53				5.17
55	1874.11	4.57				5.14
56	1874.12	4.54				5.10
57	1875.01	4.54				5.07
58	1875.02	4.53				5.03
59	1875.03	4.59				4.99
60	1875.04	4.65				4.95
61	1875.05	4.47				4.91
62	1875.06	4.38				4.87
63	1875.07	4.39				4.83
64	1875.08	4.41				4.79
65	1875.09	4.37				4.75
66	1875.1	4.30				4.71
67	1875.11	4.37				4.67
68	1875.12	4.37				4.63
69	1876.01	4.46				4.59
70	1876.02	4.52				4.58
71	1876.03	4.51				4.57
72	1876.04	4.34				4.56
73	1876.05	4.18				4.54
74	1876.06	4.15				4.53
75	1876.07	4.10				4.52
76	1876.08	3.93				4.51
77	1876.09	3.69				4.50
78	1876.1	3.67				4.49
79	1876.11	3.60				4.47
80	1876.12	3.58				4.46
81	1877.01	3.55				4.45
82	1877.02	3.34				4.44
83	1877.03	3.17				4.43
84	1877.04	2.94				4.42
85	1877.05	2.94				4.41
86	1877.06	2.73				4.40
87	1877.07	2.85				4.40
88	1877.08	3.05				4.39
89	1877.09	3.24				4.38
90	1877.1	3.31				4.37
91	1877.11	3.26				4.36
92	1877.12	3.25				4.35
93	1878.01	3.25				4.34
94	1878.02	3.18				4.33
95	1878.03	3.24				4.32
96	1878.04	3.33				4.31
97	1878.05	3.34				4.30
98	1878.06	3.41				4.29
99	1878.07	3.48				4.28
100	1878.08	3.45				4.27