Yld curve inversion.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	H	I	J	M	N
1								29.8%
2	Stock Market Data Used in "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press, 2000, 2005, 2015, updated							41.4%
3	Robert J. Shiller
4
5
6		S&P	10 period	Jul - Jun	Long	3 mo T bill	Diff
7		Comp.	Mov avg	Return	Interest		Inversion Red
8	Date	P		Green = 2nd P yr	Rate GS10		Positive into "defense"

9	1871.01	4.44			5.32			35.6%	avg
10	1871.02	4.50			5.32
11	1871.03	4.61			5.33
12	1871.04	4.74			5.33
13	1871.05	4.86			5.33
14	1871.06	4.82			5.34
15	1871.07	4.73			5.34
16	1871.08	4.79			5.34
17	1871.09	4.84			5.35
18	1871.1	4.59			5.35
19	1871.11	4.64			5.35
20	1871.12	4.74			5.36
21	1872.01	4.86			5.36
22	1872.02	4.88			5.38
23	1872.03	5.04			5.40
24	1872.04	5.18			5.42
25	1872.05	5.18			5.43
26	1872.06	5.13			5.45
27	1872.07	5.10			5.47
28	1872.08	5.04			5.49
29	1872.09	4.95			5.51
30	1872.1	4.97			5.53
31	1872.11	4.95			5.54
32	1872.12	5.07			5.56
33	1873.01	5.11			5.58
34	1873.02	5.15			5.57
35	1873.03	5.11			5.56
36	1873.04	5.04			5.55
37	1873.05	5.05			5.54
38	1873.06	4.98			5.53
39	1873.07	4.97			5.53
40	1873.08	4.97			5.52
41	1873.09	4.59			5.51
42	1873.1	4.19			5.50
43	1873.11	4.04			5.49
44	1873.12	4.42			5.48
45	1874.01	4.66			5.47
46	1874.02	4.80			5.44
47	1874.03	4.73			5.40
48	1874.04	4.60			5.37
49	1874.05	4.48			5.34
50	1874.06	4.46			5.30
51	1874.07	4.46			5.27
52	1874.08	4.47			5.24
53	1874.09	4.54			5.20
54	1874.1	4.53			5.17
55	1874.11	4.57			5.14
56	1874.12	4.54			5.10
57	1875.01	4.54			5.07
58	1875.02	4.53			5.03
59	1875.03	4.59			4.99
60	1875.04	4.65			4.95
61	1875.05	4.47			4.91
62	1875.06	4.38			4.87
63	1875.07	4.39			4.83
64	1875.08	4.41			4.79
65	1875.09	4.37			4.75
66	1875.1	4.30			4.71
67	1875.11	4.37			4.67
68	1875.12	4.37			4.63
69	1876.01	4.46			4.59
70	1876.02	4.52			4.58
71	1876.03	4.51			4.57
72	1876.04	4.34			4.56
73	1876.05	4.18			4.54
74	1876.06	4.15			4.53
75	1876.07	4.10			4.52
76	1876.08	3.93			4.51
77	1876.09	3.69			4.50
78	1876.1	3.67			4.49
79	1876.11	3.60			4.47
80	1876.12	3.58			4.46
81	1877.01	3.55			4.45
82	1877.02	3.34			4.44
83	1877.03	3.17			4.43
84	1877.04	2.94			4.42
85	1877.05	2.94			4.41
86	1877.06	2.73			4.40
87	1877.07	2.85			4.40
88	1877.08	3.05			4.39
89	1877.09	3.24			4.38
90	1877.1	3.31			4.37
91	1877.11	3.26			4.36
92	1877.12	3.25			4.35
93	1878.01	3.25			4.34
94	1878.02	3.18			4.33
95	1878.03	3.24			4.32
96	1878.04	3.33			4.31
97	1878.05	3.34			4.30
98	1878.06	3.41			4.29
99	1878.07	3.48			4.28
100	1878.08	3.45			4.27