Public Comps - Snowflake Outcome Analysis

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L
1	Public Comps Snowflake - Outcome Model (@Publiccomps)
2						Actual	Actual	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
3	Assumptions					2019Q2	2020Q2	2021Q2	2022Q2	2023Q2	2024Q2	2025Q2
4	Deal Date		10/14/25		LTM Revenue	$60	$387	$806	$1,551	$2,774	$4,639	$7,297
5	Hold Period		4		Ending ARRR	$241	$532	$1,079	$2,023	$3,526	$5,752	$8,841
6	Exit Date		10/14/29		Net New ARRR		$291	$547	$943	$1,503	$2,227	$3,088
7	Current ARR ($M)		$532		ARR Growth Rate		121%	103%	87%	74%	63%	54%
8	Current % YoY Growth		121%		Growth Persistence			85%	85%	85%	85%	85%
9					Gross margin		62%	65%	67%	70%	72%	72%
10	Shares (M)		277		LTM FCF %		-19%	-10%	-5%	0%	8%	12%
11	Price		$231		Rule of 40		102%	93%	82%	74%	71%	66%
12	Marketcap ($M)		$63,987		Net Dollar Retention	223%	158%	150%	145%	140%	135%	130%
13	Net Cash ($M)		$590		Marketcap
14	Enterprise Value ($M)		$63,397		Net Cash
15					Enterprise Value
16					EV/ARR Multiple		120.3	59.3	31.6	18.1	11.1	7.2
17					Exit ARR Multiple							20
18					Implied Exit Valuation							$176,816
19					Implied MOIC							2.76
20					Implied CAGR							29%
21					Implied CAGR Growth Rate							75.43%
22					Market Size		56,000			84,000
23					Penetration %		0.95%			4.20%
24					Implied Exit Valuation ($M)
25		NTM ARR Multiple in 2024			7.5	10	12.5	15	17.5	20	22.5	25
26
27	Estimated CAGR Growth Rate	45%	Implied NTM ARR at Exit ($M)	$3,410	$25,575	$34,100	$42,625	$51,150	$59,675	$68,200	$76,725	$85,249
28		50%		$4,040	$30,299	$40,399	$50,498	$60,598	$70,698	$80,798	$90,897	$100,997
29		55%		$4,760	$35,697	$47,596	$59,495	$71,394	$83,293	$95,192	$107,091	$118,990
30		60%		$5,578	$41,838	$55,784	$69,730	$83,676	$97,622	$111,568	$125,515	$139,461
31		65%		$6,506	$48,797	$65,063	$81,328	$97,594	$113,860	$130,125	$146,391	$162,656
32		70%		$7,554	$56,652	$75,536	$94,420	$113,305	$132,189	$151,073	$169,957	$188,841
33		75%		$8,732	$65,488	$87,318	$109,147	$130,976	$152,806	$174,635	$196,465	$218,294
34		80%		$10,053	$75,394	$100,525	$125,656	$150,788	$175,919	$201,050	$226,181	$251,313
35
47
48					Implied CAGR
49		NTM ARR Multiple in 2024			7.5	10	12.5	15	17.5	20	22.5	25
50
51	Estimated CAGR Growth Rate	45%	Implied NTM ARR at Exit ($M)	$3,410	-20.5%	-14.6%	-9.7%	-5.4%	-1.7%	1.6%	4.6%	7.4%
52		50%		$4,040	-17.0%	-10.9%	-5.7%	-1.4%	2.5%	6.0%	9.2%	12.1%
53		55%		$4,760	-13.6%	-7.1%	-1.8%	2.8%	6.8%	10.4%	13.7%	16.8%
54		60%		$5,578	-10.1%	-3.4%	2.2%	6.9%	11.1%	14.9%	18.3%	21.5%
55		65%		$6,506	-6.6%	0.4%	6.2%	11.1%	15.5%	19.4%	23.0%	26.3%
56		70%		$7,554	-3.0%	4.2%	10.2%	15.4%	19.9%	24.0%	27.7%	31.1%
57		75%		$8,732	0.6%	8.1%	14.3%	19.6%	24.3%	28.5%	32.4%	35.9%
58		80%		$10,053	4.2%	12.0%	18.4%	23.9%	28.8%	33.1%	37.1%	40.8%
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