ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAYAZ
1
2
How much suffering is averted by eradicating screwworm?
Todo: Convert measurements into hours of agonizing pain averted, so intervention can be better compared to other animal welfare interventions.
3
4
Pain from non-lethal screwworm infection0.0001
Input: Complete Guess
5
Pain from lethal screwworm infection1
Input: Guess supported by source
6
7
Pain from dying being predated0.7
8
Chance of dying of predation45%
9
10
Pain from dying of disease, starvation, injury0.9
11
Chance of dying of disease or starvation10%
12
13
Pain from human death0.4
14
Chance of dying from human30%
15
16
Pain from other death0.9
17
Chance of other death15%
18
19
Percentage of animals infected with screwworm1.7%Range: 0.1-4%
20
Infected animals per year1,516,400,000
21
% infected who die25%
20% or more in animals, 80% of newborn calves?
22
23
Suffering points averted per year129,007,730
Squiggle calculation with wider ranges, suggest a lower mean: https://www.squiggle-language.com/playground?v=0.9.4#code=eNqlVNtOwkAQ%2FZUJLyLeQMRb4oNKjCRGSHgwJn0Z2yndhM6a3UVCjP%2FuXigFqVXjPhCYOXPOme4p742EUpxNza1MqHHZODqCEQqGVMkcWPLBlEyGU9CxovlcqhwEpxQbITniV4u8s8BHyQ8eNi5QgwIEV9A%2BbNvTASP9115kJzdkfiNRw9%2FZIkwWgifwQu7zVVGChpKSqu%2B6N645Wva8yeNg8CLiOEOOaZh6oJsIuGKb7QUSoQk1gVSgDao33PTeD%2B2hGq%2BanujUKXYOuxWK341s75rNcmRICE1WKt67Yt%2FVwlRY7axCyCMDaHsvaTJSX7mHrlhyn4UlTkruL4DjFS%2BpmNjgxD6oFJBFjlO9vGt7B3NhB1YZiLhoXAegnX4mVO6%2Bu%2Bdtf5xyr1v8sg6DwGA5%2BJTJvqAQwF54AoWV8SxNSfl4SMFGA76RciYsBSysjEel9j6RFzZCcqIwz0lp0ORTZTKh92EAieQdA3NkRsicPXyRMwMiYl1IjLzCdRAot2h%2Bs18Lqtew9R9ehV04gGZNyFtQE%2BwW%2FM3PplhFWivUqmH%2F0F2LeYVciPa%2FBNaiXApsFP9KvleS1%2F1rtmry0ex4i5X89jQ%2BPgGGHRGd
24
25
26
Cost effectiveness of a campaign
27
28
Base chance of screwworm eradication per annum10%
29
Chance of advocacy succeeding25%
30
Discount rate4.4%
10 year US treasury
31
32
Total philanthropic cost of campaign$2,000,000
Government costs not accounted for, as the intervention has a positive ROI.
33
34
year1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950
35
probability of eradication without advocacy10%19%27%34%41%47%52%57%61%65%69%72%75%77%79%81%83%85%86%88%89%90%91%92%93%94%94%95%95%96%96%97%97%97%97%98%98%98%98%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%99%
36
37
Suffering points averted (without discount)29,026,73926,124,06523,511,65921,160,49319,044,44417,139,99915,425,99913,883,39912,495,05911,245,55410,120,9989,108,8988,198,0097,378,2086,640,3875,976,3485,378,7134,840,8424,356,7583,921,0823,528,9743,176,0762,858,4692,572,6222,315,3602,083,8241,875,4411,687,8971,519,1081,367,1971,230,4771,107,429996,686897,018807,316726,584653,926588,533529,680476,712429,041386,137347,523312,771281,494253,344228,010205,209184,688166,219
38
Suffering points averted (with discount)27,798,06523,959,25920,650,57817,798,81215,340,86513,222,35111,396,3959,822,5978,466,1347,296,9936,289,3075,420,7784,672,1894,026,9783,470,8682,991,5542,578,4322,222,3611,915,4611,650,9431,422,9541,226,4501,057,082911,103785,283676,839583,370502,809433,373373,526321,943277,484239,165206,137177,670153,135131,987113,76098,05084,51072,84062,78154,11146,63840,19834,64729,86225,73822,18419,120
39
40
Suffering points averted per dollar101
41
Interpretation
Each dollar spent on this campaign averts pain corresponding to that of 101 animals dying of screwworm, which otherwise would have had a completely painless death
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100