Sineng Electric Co Ltd DCF - Grey Sky Case.xlsx

	B	D	E	G	I	L	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z
1	Sineng Electric Co Ltd - Discounted Cash Flow Model
2
3	Assumptions
4	Tax Rate	15.0%
5	Discount Rate	4.0%
6	Perpetural Growth Rate	2.9%
7	EV/EBITDA Multiple	205.54x
8	Transaction Date	11/12/2021
9	Fiscal Year End	12/31/2021
10	Current Price ($)	19.04
11	Diluted Shares Outstanding	132.00	million
12	Debt (CNY)	1,426.67	million
13	Cash (CNY)	598.81	million
14	Capex (CNY)	77.80	million
15	CN to USD Exchange Rate	0.16
16
17
18	Intrinsic Value
19	Enterprise Value	$ 2,814.82	million			Discounted Cash Flow	Entry	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	Exit
20	Plus: Cash	$ 95.81	million	Rate of Return		Date	11/12/2021	12/31/2021	12/31/2022	12/31/2023	12/31/2024	12/31/2025	12/31/2026	12/31/2027	12/31/2028	12/31/2029	12/31/2030	12/31/2031	12/31/2031
21	Less: Debt	$ 228.27	million	Target Price Upside	7%	Time Periods		0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
22	Equity Value	$ 2,682.36	million	Internal Rate of Return (IRR)	26%	Year Fraction		0.14	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
23						EBIT		77	87	99	112	126	142	155	169	184	201	219
24	Equity Value/Share	$ 20.32		Market Value vs Intrinsic Value		Less: Cash Taxes		12	13	15	17	19	21	23	25	28	30	33
25				Market Value	19.04	Plus: D&A		8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
26	Market Value			Upside	1.28	Less: Capex		77.80	82.47	87.42	92.66	98.22	104.11	110.36	116.98	124.00	131.44	139.33
27	Market Cap	$ 2,513.28	million	Intrinsic Value	$ 20.32	Less: Changes in NWC		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	Plus: Debt	$ 228.27	million			Unlevered FCF		(4)	(0)	5	10	17	25	30	35	41	48	55
29	Less: Cash	$ 95.81	million			(Entry)/Exit	(2,646)												25,966
30	Enterprise Value	$ 2,645.74	million			Transaction CF	-	(1)	(0)	5	10	17	25	30	35	41	48	55	25,966
31						Transaction CF	(2,646)	(1)	(0)	5	10	17	25	30	35	41	48	55	25,966
32	Equity Value/Share	$ 19.04
33
34	in USD					Terminal Value
35						Perpetural Growth	5,207
36						EV/EBITDA	46,726
37	https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/300827:CH					Average	25,966
38
39						in million Chinese Yuan
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