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Malaria ConsortiumMalaria Consortium
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Burkina FasoChadDRCDRCDRCDRCMozambiqueNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaTogoUganda
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Supplemental calculations for the leverage/funging adjustmentunittypeOverallHaut-KatangaHaut-LomamiLualabaTanganyikaNampulaBauchiBornoFCT (Abuja)KebbiKogiNasarawaOyoPlateauSokotoKaramoja
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from "Main calcs" sheet for visibility)xcashmain-17.98.07.89.29.012.511.421.117.916.029.220.922.224.215.929.610.510.3
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Costs
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GiveWell costs
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Grant size$input$1,000,000------------------
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Cost breakdown
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Percentage of total costs covered by the grantee%input-89%89%89%89%89%89%89%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%87%89%
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Percentage of total costs covered by other philanthropic actors%input-1%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%2%0%
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Percentage of total costs covered by domestic governments%input-10%11%11%11%11%11%11%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%11%
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Total costs
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Total spending by all contributors$main-$1,127,124$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,144,056$1,118,119
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Total spending attributable to different actors
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Total spending contributed by grantee$main-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
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Total spending contributed by other philanthropic actors$main-$9,161$0$0$0$0$0$0$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$27,990$0
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Total spending contributed by domestic governments $main-$117,963$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$116,067$118,119
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Upstream / downstream spending
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Total spending causally upstream of donations to grantee$main-$1,009,161$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,027,990$1,000,000
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Total spending causally downstream of donations to grantee$main-$117,963$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$116,067$118,119
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Counterfactual funding scenarios
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Probability of scenarios in the absence of philanthropic funding
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Scenario 1: Domestic governments would replace the grantee's costs%input-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Scenario 2: Global Fund and/or PMI would replace the grantee's costs%input-50%45%15%15%15%15%20%20%10%10%20%10%20%20%20%20%65%30%
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Scenario 3: Other actors' upstream costs would stay the same (downstream costs would shrink in proportion to the total size of the program)%input-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Scenario 4: Distributions would go unfunded%calc-50%55%85%85%85%85%80%80%90%90%80%90%80%80%80%80%35%70%
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Proportion of the program that would still occur in each scenario
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Scenario 1: Domestic governments would replace the grantee's costs%input100%------------------
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Scenario 2: Global Fund and/or PMI would replace the grantee's costs%input100%------------------
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Scenario 3: Other actors' upstream costs would stay the same (downstream costs would shrink in proportion to the total size of the program)%calc-1%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%3%0%
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Scenario 4: Distributions would go unfunded%input0%------------------
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Value of spending
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Cost-effectiveness of the program (before leverage and funging)
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Units of value generated per dollar (before final adjustments)UoVmain-0.0960.0320.0240.0290.0280.0400.0380.0690.0530.0470.0970.0620.0730.0790.0510.0980.0610.037
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Total supplemental grantee-level adjustment%main-8%------------------
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Total supplemental intervention-level adjustment%main-19%24%28%28%28%28%28%34%34%34%34%34%34%34%34%34%29%28%
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Units of value generated per dollar donated to grantee (after supplemental adjustments)UoVcalc-0.1050.0370.0290.0340.0340.0470.0450.0850.0660.0580.1190.0770.0900.0980.0640.1210.0720.043
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Lives saved by the program (before leverage and funging)
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Total lives saved (before final adjustments)#main-716210171203201302296487354323643430479494341687371277
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Total supplemental grantee-level adjustment%main-8%------------------
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Total supplemental intervention-level adjustment affecting lives saved%main--20%-15%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%-10%-11%
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Total lives saved (after supplemental adjustments)#calc-528164140166165248243426310283564376419433299602308227
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Counterfactual value of spending from non-philanthropic actors
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Counterfactual value per dollar spent by domestic governmentsUoVinput0.005------------------
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Counterfactual value per dollar spent by the Global Fund or PMIUoVinput0.015------------------
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Value generated across different counterfactual scenarios
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Scenario 1: Domestic governments would replace philanthropic spending
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Hypothetical impact of shifting government spending
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Amount of spending domestic governments would shift to the grantee program$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
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Value generated by shifting government spending to the grantee programUoVcalc-105,16036,52328,63634,09733,52947,13244,59085,11965,57858,438119,23176,75789,68298,01063,527120,91672,46943,271
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Value lost by shifting spending away from programs domestic governments would otherwise have fundedUoVcalc-5,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,0575,057
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Net value generated by shifting government spending to the grantee programUoVcalc-100,10331,46623,57929,04028,47242,07539,53380,06260,52153,381114,17471,70084,62592,95358,470115,85967,41238,214
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Change in value generated by the grantee program if this scenario represented the true counterfactualUoVcalc--100,103-31,466-23,579-29,040-28,472-42,075-39,533-80,062-60,521-53,381-114,174-71,700-84,625-92,953-58,470-115,859-67,412-38,214
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Probability of this scenario representing the true counterfactual%feed-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Expected change in value generated by the grantee programUoVcalc-000000000000000000
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Scenario 2: The Global Fund and/or PMI would replace philanthropic spending
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Hypothetical impact of shifting Global Fund and/or PMI spending
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Amount of spending Global Fund and/or PMI would shift to the grantee program$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
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Value generated by shifting Global Fund and/or PMI spending to the grantee programUoVcalc-105,16036,52328,63634,09733,52947,13244,59085,11965,57858,438119,23176,75789,68298,01063,527120,91672,46943,271
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Value lost by shifting spending away from programs the Global Fund and/or PMI would otherwise have fundedUoVcalc-15,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,43315,433
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Net value generated by shifting Global Fund and/or PMI spending to the grantee programUoVcalc-89,72721,09013,20318,66418,09631,69929,15769,68650,14543,005103,79861,32474,24982,57748,094105,48357,03627,838
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Change in value generated by the grantee program if this scenario represented the true counterfactualUoVcalc--89,727-21,090-13,203-18,664-18,096-31,699-29,157-69,686-50,145-43,005-103,798-61,324-74,249-82,577-48,094-105,483-57,036-27,838
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Probability of this scenario representing the true counterfactual%feed-50%45%15%15%15%15%20%20%10%10%20%10%20%20%20%20%65%30%
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Expected change in value generated by the grantee programUoVcalc--44,863-9,490-1,980-2,800-2,714-4,755-5,831-13,937-5,015-4,300-20,760-6,132-14,850-16,515-9,619-21,097-37,074-8,351
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Scenario 3: The government would spend the same amount and the program would be smaller
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Hypothetical impact of shifting government spending
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Amount of spending domestic governments would shift away from the grantee program$calc-$116,892$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$112,531$112,531$112,531$112,531$112,531$112,531$112,531$112,531$112,531$112,906$118,119
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Value generated by shifting spending toward programs domestic governments would otherwise have supportedUoVcalc-591597597597597597597569569569569569569569569569571597
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Value lost by shifting government spending away from the grantee programUoVcalc-000000000000000000
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Net value generated by shifting government spending away from the grantee programUoVcalc-591597597597597597597569569569569569569569569569571597
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Change in value generated by the grantee program if this scenario represented the true counterfactualUoVcalc--591-597-597-597-597-597-597-569-569-569-569-569-569-569-569-569-571-597
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Probability of this scenario representing the true counterfactual%feed-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Expected change in value generated by the programUoVcalc-000000000000000000
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Scenario 4: The grantee program would go unfunded
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Hypothetical impact of shifting government spending
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Amount of spending domestic governments would shift away from the grantee program$calc-$117,963$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$116,067$118,119
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Value generated by shifting spending to programs domestic governments would otherwise have fundedUoVcalc-597597597597597597597594594594594594594594594594587597
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Value lost by shifting government spending away from the grantee programUoVcalc-000000000000000000
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Net value generated by shifting government spending away from the grantee programUoVcalc-597597597597597597597594594594594594594594594594587597
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Change in value generated by the grantee program if this scenario represented the true counterfactualUoVcalc--597-597-597-597-597-597-597-594-594-594-594-594-594-594-594-594-587-597
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Probability of this scenario representing the true counterfactual%feed-50%55%85%85%85%85%80%80%90%90%80%90%80%80%80%80%35%70%
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Expected change in value generated by the programUoVcalc--298-329-508-508-508-508-478-476-535-535-476-535-476-476-476-476-205-418
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