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Malaria ConsortiumMalaria Consortium
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Burkina FasoChadDRCDRCDRCDRCMozambiqueNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaTogoUganda
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Main calculationsunittypeOverallHaut-KatangaHaut-LomamiLualabaTanganyikaNampulaBauchiBornoFCT (Abuja)KebbiKogiNasarawaOyoPlateauSokotoKaramoja
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from below for visibility)
xbenchmark
feed-18.08.07.99.29.112.611.521.218.016.129.421.022.324.316.029.810.610.4
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Costs
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GiveWell costs
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Grant size$input$1,000,000------------------
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Cost breakdown
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Percentage of total costs covered by the grantee%input-89%89%89%89%89%89%89%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%87%89%
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Percentage of total costs covered by other philanthropic actors%input-1%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%2%0%
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Percentage of total costs covered by domestic governments%input-10%11%11%11%11%11%11%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%11%
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Total costs
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Total spending by all contributors$calc-$1,127,124$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,118,119$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,162,185$1,144,056$1,118,119
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Total spending attributable to different actors
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Total spending contributed by grantee$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
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Total spending contributed by other philanthropic actors$calc-$9,161$0$0$0$0$0$0$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$44,631$27,990$0
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Total spending contributed by domestic governments $calc-$117,963$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$116,067$118,119
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Upstream / downstream spending
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Total spending causally upstream of donations to grantee$calc-$1,009,161$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,044,631$1,027,990$1,000,000
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Total spending causally downstream of donations to grantee$calc-$117,963$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$118,119$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$117,553$116,067$118,119
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Cost per child covered
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Cost per seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) cycle administered$input-$1.48$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.50$1.81
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Number of SMC cycles per year#input-4.34.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.05.04.05.05.05.05.04.04.05.0
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Total cost per child treated with all cycles of SMC in a year$calc-$6.35$7.24$7.24$7.24$7.24$7.24$7.24$5.61$5.61$7.01$5.61$7.01$7.01$7.01$7.01$5.61$5.98$9.05
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Upstream costs per child treated with all cycles of SMC in a year$calc-$5.69$6.48$6.48$6.48$6.48$6.48$6.48$5.04$5.04$6.30$5.04$6.30$6.30$6.30$6.30$5.04$5.37$8.09
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Outputs
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Total children covered
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Total people under age 5 receiving a year of SMC#calc-175,783154,429154,429154,429154,429154,429154,429198,305198,305158,644198,305158,644158,644158,644158,644198,305186,096123,544
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Outcomes
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Mortality reduction among people under age 5 (treated population)
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Reduction in malaria incidence for children under age 5 targeted for SMC found in GiveWell's adjusted version of the Meremikwu et al. 2012 meta-analysis%input75%------------------
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Estimated proportion of children targeted for SMC in trials that received SMC%input90%------------------
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Implied reduction in malaria incidence among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc84%------------------
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Internal validity adjustment%input-5%------------------
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External validity adjustment%input0%------------------
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Adjustment for lower effectiveness outside the Sahel region of Africa%input-0%0%-20%-20%-20%-20%-20%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-20%
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc-79%79%64%64%64%64%64%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%64%
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Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence%input100%------------------
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Expected reduction in malaria mortality among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc-79%79%64%64%64%64%64%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%64%
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Annual malaria mortality rate among 3-59-month-olds%supp-0.38%0.13%0.18%0.22%0.22%0.33%0.28%0.24%0.16%0.17%0.31%0.21%0.27%0.22%0.19%0.34%0.16%0.31%
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Indirect malaria deaths per direct malaria death#input0.75------------------
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Total malaria-attributable mortality rate (including direct and indirect malaria deaths)%calc-0.67%0.22%0.32%0.38%0.38%0.57%0.49%0.43%0.29%0.30%0.55%0.37%0.48%0.39%0.33%0.60%0.28%0.54%
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Expected number of annual malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population in the absence of SMC#calc-1,1833474975895858797508455704831,0865877546195231,192521668
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Proportion of annual malaria mortality that occurs during the SMC season%input-70%70%52%52%52%52%52%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%62%
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Expected number of malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population during the SMC season in the absence of SMC#calc-828243256303301453386591399338760411528433366834365414
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Total deaths averted among people under age 5#calc-657193163194192289247469317268604326419344291662289264
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Mortality reduction among people over age 5 (untreated population)
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Reduction in malaria incidence among the SMC-eligible population found in Cisse et al. 2016%input60%------------------
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Reduction in malaria incidence among the population too old to be eligible for SMC found in Cisse et al. 2016%input26%------------------
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Implied proportion of the protective effect of SMC received by the population too old to be eligible for SMC%calc43%------------------
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Adjustment for differences in program coverage and transmission intensity in the populations studied by the Cisse et al. 2016 trial and the populations targeted by grantee programs%input-69%------------------
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Expected proportion of the protective effect of SMC received by the population too old to be eligible for SMC%calc13%------------------
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people over age 5%calc-11%11%9%9%9%9%9%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%9%
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Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence%feed100%------------------
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Expected reduction in malaria mortality among people over age 5%calc-11%11%9%9%9%9%9%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%9%
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Malaria mortalities among people over age 5 per malaria mortality among 3-59-month-olds#supp-0.70.70.30.30.30.31.50.30.91.50.52.41.13.31.30.32.10.3
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Expected number of malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population during the SMC season in the absence of SMC#calc-555159891051041575771643515163769735631,416477237765143
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Total deaths averted among people age 5 and older#calc-59178991349173755401036015051258112
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Malaria incidence reduction among people under age 15
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Adjusted malaria incidence among people age 1 to 4%supp-60%37%31%37%35%35%36%45%47%53%82%72%85%124%60%66%79%35%
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Adjusted malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14%supp-25%16%31%37%35%35%36%19%20%20%32%28%32%46%24%27%31%35%
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people age 1 to 4pptcalc-33%21%10%12%12%12%12%25%26%29%45%40%47%69%34%37%44%14%
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Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14pptcalc-2%1%1%2%2%2%2%1%1%2%2%2%2%3%2%2%2%2%
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National population age 1 to 4#input-3,159,8202,593,74010,821,14910,821,14910,821,14910,821,1494,037,23726,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,071887,1255,581,405
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National population age 5 to 14#input-6,348,4464,977,42124,065,68024,065,68024,065,68024,065,6808,658,11360,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,4372,032,78111,987,722
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Number of 5-14-year-olds exposed to spillover effects per person targeted to receive SMC#calc-2.01.92.22.22.22.22.12.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.1
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Total 5-14-year-olds exposed to spillover effects from SMC#calc-353,169296,352343,443343,443343,443343,443331,184452,376452,376361,901452,376361,901361,901361,901361,901452,376426,425265,346
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Malaria cases averted among people under age 5#calc-58,65732,10915,60519,01517,95717,82418,44649,88651,50346,62389,87663,79175,191109,09553,30172,82881,79016,883
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Malaria cases averted among people age 5 to 14#calc-6,4823,5744,6435,6585,3435,3035,2926,2596,6395,44710,7967,6198,56812,4426,4329,1629,7774,851
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Long-term income increases for people under age 15
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Increase in annual income per malaria case averted among people under age 15%input0.6%------------------
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Adjusted increase in ln(income) per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.006------------------
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Average number of years between receiving SMC and the beginning of long-term benefits#input12.5------------------
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Discount rate for future benefits%input4.0%------------------
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Discounted increase in ln(income) per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.004------------------
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Expected number of years the long-term benefits of receiving SMC will last#input40------------------
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Present value of individual lifetime benefits per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.08------------------
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Multiplier for resource sharing within households#input2------------------
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Present value of total lifetime benefits per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.16------------------
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Present value of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people under age 5ln($)calc-9,5155,2092,5313,0852,9132,8912,9928,0938,3557,56314,58010,34812,19817,6978,64611,81413,2682,739
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Present value of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people age 5 to 14ln($)calc-1,0525807539188678608591,0151,0778841,7511,2361,3902,0181,0431,4861,586787
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Total present value of units of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people under age 15ln($)calc-10,5675,7883,2854,0023,7803,7523,8519,1089,4328,44716,33111,58413,58819,7169,69013,30014,8543,526
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Value of outcomes
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Units of value from mortality reduction among people under age 5
100
Value assigned to averting a malaria-attributable death of a person under age 5UoVinput116------------------