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Malaria ConsortiumMalaria Consortium
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Burkina FasoChadDRCDRCDRCDRCMozambiqueNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaTogoUganda
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InputsunittypeOverallHaut-KatangaHaut-LomamiLualabaTanganyikaNampulaBauchiBornoFCT (Abuja)KebbiKogiNasarawaOyoPlateauSokotoKaramojaSourceGW analysis and discussion
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from "Main calcs" sheet for visibility)xcashmain-17.98.07.89.29.012.511.421.117.916.029.220.922.224.215.929.610.510.3
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Costs
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GiveWell costs
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Grant size$input$1,000,000------------------Arbitrary value
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Cost breakdown
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Percentage of total costs covered by the grantee%input-89%89%89%89%89%89%89%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%86%87%89%GW analysis
GW's analysis of Malaria Consortium's cost per SMC cycle administration
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Percentage of total costs covered by other philanthropic actors%input-1%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%2%0%GW analysis
GW's analysis of Malaria Consortium's cost per SMC cycle administration
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Percentage of total costs covered by domestic governments%input-10%11%11%11%11%11%11%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%11%GW analysis
GW's analysis of Malaria Consortium's cost per SMC cycle administration
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Cost per child covered
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Cost per seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) cycle administered$input-$1.48$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.81$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.40$1.50$1.81GW analysis
GW's analysis of Malaria Consortium's cost per SMC cycle administration
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Number of SMC cycles per year#input-4.34.04.04.04.04.04.04.04.05.04.05.05.05.05.04.04.05.0GW analysis
GW's analysis of the number of SMC cycles delivered per year
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Counterfactual malaria
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Malaria mortalities among the SMC-eligible population
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Malaria mortalities per year among people under age 5#input-16,3954,5264,1083,6041,0473,7523,0073,5941,7081,8823,1418012,2581,8573,1824,9191,8803,724GBD 2019
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Early neonatal malaria mortalities per year (babies under 7 days old)#input-000000000000000000GBD 2019
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Late neonatal malaria mortalities per year (babies between 7 and 27 days old)#input-68320828825373263120786711384499815616010882214GBD 2019
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Post-neonatal malaria mortalities per year (babies between 28 and 364 days old)#input-5,1361,4021,6321,4324161,4911,5705143625915012505846589227275751,595GBD 2019
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Number of post-neonatal months of life in which children are under 1 year old#input11------------------
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Number of post-neonatal months of life in which children are under 3 months old#input2------------------
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Malaria mortality rate among the SMC-eligible population
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Annual malaria mortality rate among people under age 5
per 100k
input-405136204241240360305256178288332240299262210361169339GBD 2019
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Total number of months of life in which children are under 5 years old#input60------------------
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Number of months of life in which children are under 3 months old#input3------------------
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Adjustment for malaria averted by ITN distributions not accounted for in GBD 2019%input-0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-5%-5%-35%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%0%0%GW guesstimate
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Proportion of malaria mortalities that are among the SMC-eligible population
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Total malaria mortalities per year#input-26,3057,1945,3274,6741,3584,8666,8904,5453,0944,4184,6072,4714,4507,0276,8936,2475,4364,838GBD 2019
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Malaria incidence among people under age 15
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Malaria incidence among people age 1 to 4
per 100k
input-60,06137,42330,73137,44835,36535,10336,32747,66249,20681,53085,86976,18389,799130,28863,65569,58179,10634,522GBD 2019
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Malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14
per 100k
input-24,69416,22330,73137,44835,36535,10336,32719,59320,78431,21033,79629,81233,52848,68725,16728,68030,84534,522GBD 2019
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Outcomes
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Mortality reduction among people under age 5
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Reduction in malaria incidence for children under age 5 targeted for SMC found in GiveWell's adjusted version of the Meremikwu et al. 2012 meta-analysis%input75%------------------GW analysisGW's report on seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC)
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Estimated proportion of children targeted for SMC in trials that received SMC%input90%------------------GW analysisGW's analysis of SMC coverage in trials
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Internal validity adjustment%input-5%------------------GW guesstimate
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External validity adjustment%input0%------------------GW guesstimate
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Adjustment for lower effectiveness outside the Sahel region of Africa%input-0%0%-20%-20%-20%-20%-20%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-20%GW analysis
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Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence%input100%------------------GW guesstimate
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Indirect malaria deaths per direct malaria death#input0.75------------------GW guesstimate
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Proportion of annual malaria mortality that occurs during the SMC season%input-70%70%52%52%52%52%52%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%62%GW guesstimate
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Mortality reduction among people over age 5
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Reduction in malaria incidence among the SMC-eligible population found in Cisse et al. 2016%input60%------------------Cisse et al. 2016
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Reduction in malaria incidence among the population too old to be eligible for SMC found in Cisse et al. 2016%input26%------------------Cisse et al. 2016
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Adjustment for differences in program coverage and transmission intensity in the populations studied by the Cisse et al. 2016 trial and the populations targeted by grantee programs%input-69%------------------GW analysis
GW's analysis of the indirect effects of Malaria Consortium's SMC programs relative to Cisse et al. 2016
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Malaria prevalence reduction among people under age 15
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National population age 1 to 4#input-3,159,8202,593,74010,821,14910,821,14910,821,14910,821,1494,037,23726,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,07126,401,071887,1255,581,405GBD 2019
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National population age 5 to 14#input-6,348,4464,977,42124,065,68024,065,68024,065,68024,065,6808,658,11360,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,43760,226,4372,032,78111,987,722GBD 2019
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Long-term income increases for people under age 15
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Increase in annual income per malaria case averted among people under age 15%input0.6%------------------GW guesstimateGW's analysis of malaria income effect size
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Average number of years between receiving SMC and the beginning of long-term benefits#input12.5------------------GW guesstimate
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Discount rate for future benefits%input4.0%------------------GW analysisGW's moral weights and discount rate
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Expected number of years the long-term benefits of receiving SMC will last#input40------------------GW guesstimate
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Multiplier for resource sharing within households#input2------------------GW analysis
GW's analysis on estimating multiplier for benefits experienced by other household members
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Value of outcomes
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Value of outcomes
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Value assigned to averting a malaria-attributable death of a person under age 5UoVinput116------------------GW value judgmentGW's moral weights and discount rate
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Value assigned to averting a malaria-attributable death of a person age 5 or olderUoVinput73------------------GW value judgmentGW's moral weights and discount rate
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Value assigned to doubling consumption for one person for one yearUoVinput1.0------------------GW value judgmentGW's moral weights and discount rate
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Value assigned to increasing ln(consumption) by one unit for one person for one yearUoVinput1.4------------------GW value judgmentGW's moral weights and discount rate
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Summary of outcomes and initial cost-effectiveness (before final adjustments)
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Cost-effectiveness of GiveDirectly
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Value generated per dollar donated to GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfer programUoVinput0.003------------------GW analysisGW's CEA for GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfers
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Adjustments
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Supplemental grantee-level adjustments
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Risk of wastage
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Double treatment%input0%------------------GW guesstimate
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Ineffective goods%input0%------------------GW guesstimate
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Goods purchased and left in storage until they expire / cash doesn't receive recipients or is taken back from them inappropriately%input0%------------------GW guesstimate
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Quality of monitoring and evaluation
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Misappropriation without monitoring results%input0%------------------GW guesstimate
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False monitoring results%input-2%------------------GW guesstimate
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Confidence in funds being used for intended purpose
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Change of priorities%input-1%------------------GW guesstimate
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Non-funding bottlenecks%input0%------------------GW guesstimate
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Within-org fungibility%input-5%------------------GW guesstimate
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Supplemental intervention-level adjustments
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Malaria morbidity%input9%------------------GW guesstimateGW's supplemental intervention-level adjustments
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Short-term anemia effects%input9%------------------GW guesstimateGW's supplemental intervention-level adjustments