Simple DTD model
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ABCD
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ParameterValueSource
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Probability of extinction from advanced AI (before 2100)
5.00%FHI survey
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Probability of extinction from other causes (before 2100)
14.00%
Calculation (assumes median(risk from advanced AI) + median(other risks) = median(all risks), which is not automatic)
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P(extinction) from other causes - per year
0.001647058824
Calculation assuming risk is evenly spread 2015-2100
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Probability of extinction before 210019.00%FHI survey
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Years of AI speedup1Assumption
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Risk reduction from non-AI causes (in percentage points)
0.16%
Calculation. Assumes that safe debut of advanced AI makes other risks negligible
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Break-even proportional risk increase from advanced AI
3.29%
Calculation - this is how much risk from advanced AI would have to proportionally increase, as the result of speedup, in order to offset the reduced risk from other causes
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Simple model
Generalization