Model for estimating impact from sensitivity and specificity 2020_05_27_GW.xlsx

	B	D	E	F	G	I	L	M	N	O	Q	R	S	T	V	W	X	Y
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2	BCG	Assumptions/Considerations
3							BCG				BCG				BCG
4		Sensitivity based on different measures					BCG				BCG				BCG
5			Cards	CIR	Scars		GiveWell				IDinsight teammate 1				IDinsight teammate 2
6		Control	0.903	0.894	0.979		GiveWell				IDinsight teammate 1				IDinsight teammate 2
7		Treatment	0.971	0.934	0.982		Control				Control				Control
8								Value	Upper bound	Lower bound		Value	Upper bound	Lower bound		Value	Upper bound	Lower bound
9		1) If there are no falsified child health cards / CIRs / scars, then the values above are upper bounds for true sensitivity - What are your beliefs about falsification?					Sensitivity of self-reports				Sensitivity of self-reports		0.9	0.8	Sensitivity of self-reports		0.9	0.8
10							Specificity of self-reports				Specificity of self-reports		0.9	0.7	Specificity of self-reports		0.75	0.6
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12		2) Do you think children without cards/CIR/scars are more/less likely to have their caregiver correctly report a vaccine? By how much?					Difference between Treatment and Control				Difference between Treatment and Control				Difference between Treatment and Control
13								Dif T-C	Upper bound	Lower bound		Dif T-C	Upper bound	Lower bound		Dif T-C	Upper bound	Lower bound
14							Sensitivity of self-reports	0.000			Sensitivity of self-reports	0.000	0.05	0	Sensitivity of self-reports	0.000	0.15	0
15		3) How might recall/reporting vary with treatment?					Specificity of self-reports	0.000			Specificity of self-reports	0.000	0.05	0	Specificity of self-reports	0.000	0.1	-0.15
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17							Treatment				Treatment				Treatment
18		Specificity based on different measures						Value	Upper bound	Lower bound		Value	Upper bound	Lower bound		Value	Upper bound	Lower bound
19			Cards	CIR	Scars	Cards + CIR	Sensitivity of self-reports				Sensitivity of self-reports		0.95	0.8	Sensitivity of self-reports		0.95	0.85
20		Control	0.562	0.466	0.609	0.6261	Specificity of self-reports				Specificity of self-reports		0.9	0.75	Specificity of self-reports		0.75	0.65
21		Treatment	0.545	0.24	0.478	0.6003
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23		1) The values above are lower than true specificity - How much higher do you think true specificity is? How might it vary for treatment/control?					Maximum impact				Maximum impact	0.373			Maximum impact	0.444
24							Minimum impact				Minimum impact	0.191			Minimum impact	0.101
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26		2) How might false reporting vary by treatment (recall; social desirability bias)?
27											IDinsight team average impact
28											Avg max impact	0.414
29											Avg min impact	0.123
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