Projecting Groundball Percentage on Changeups
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The data used to construct the formula can be found below. The details of the regression are on the right.
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First Regression
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PlayerVeloH MovV Mov
Velocity Difference
GB/BIP
Velocity Difference
Vertical Movement
Horizontal Movement
VelocityConstant
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Yordano Ventura
88.365.846.69.8955.00%Coefficient-0.010176073-0.019429216-0.0031530980.0049160160.283882527
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Gerrit Cole88.258.543.498.5340.00%Standard Error0.0022549980.0017510560.002004130.001424930.133219473
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Matt Harvey87.779.064.848.8559.00%t-value-4.512674294-11.09571344-1.5733002493.4500064342.13093867
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Nathan Eovaldi86.927.35.379.4848.00%p-value0.0000.0000.1170.0010.034
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Stephen Strasburg
89.28.732.987.0763.00%
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Jose Fernandez88.049.362.568.1768.00%r-squared0.448643412
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Wily Peralta85.14.918.210.9628.00%
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Andrew Cashner
85.387.814.2210.6153.00%
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Zack Wheeler88.959.396.146.9246.00%Second Regression
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Chris Archer85.586.687.4510.137.00%
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Felipe Paulino86.614.886.839.0345.00%
Velocity Difference
Vertical Movement
VelocityConstant
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Joe Kelly85.029.532.7510.5449.00%Coefficient-0.010036475-0.0189879940.0050437230.246305867
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Rubby De La Rosa
87.457.973.88.150.00%Standard Error0.0022587130.0017326420.0014260640.13137862
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Andrew Cashner
84.979.85.6510.4943.00%t-value4.44344854810.958982873.5368139161.874778918
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Alexi Ogando86.244.815.499.1757.00%p-value0.0000.0000.0000.062
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Dustin McGowan
87.558.924.957.7250.00%
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Justin Verlander85.419.226.149.7248.00%r-squared0.444139259
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Josh Johnson88.236.74.816.6464.00%
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Michael Pineda88.398.475.296.4652.00%
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Edwin Jackson86.818.246.557.9951.00%
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Henderson Alvarez
88.455.242.466.2459.00%
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Robinson Tejeda
83.592.615.8111.0943.00%
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Trevor Bauer84.034.887.7310.6138.00%
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Edinson Volquez
83.926.691.6410.6352.00%
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Tyson Ross87.516.273.527.0444.00%
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Carlos Carrasco
87.295.78-0.177.2470.00%
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Jacob deGrom84.696.613.849.8155.00%
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A.J. Burnett88.416.811.846.0873.00%
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Esmil Rogers86.225.454.898.2636.00%
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Jordan Zimmermann
87.348.684.847.0344.00%
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Matt Moore85.5910.395.838.7747.00%
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Shelby Miller85.936.737.368.4330.00%
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Sonny Gray87.576.255.546.7962.00%
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Felix Hernandez
89.66.332.014.7566.00%
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Radhames Liz86.264.544.248.0855.00%
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Derek Holland85.128.518.719.2236.00%
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Matt Garza85.676.298.738.642.00%
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Chris Sale84.2312.722.4910.0248.00%
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Corey Kluber85.346.223.568.9161.00%
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CC Sabathia86.828.676.137.456.00%
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Max Scherzer84.8290.569.454.00%
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Tyler Chatwood82.915.256.9511.3150.00%
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Danny Duffy83.919.047.6410.2938.00%
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Dustin Nippert84.786.036.889.3639.00%
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Kyle Drabek86.467.823.867.6665.00%
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Josh Beckett88.297.863.115.8158.00%
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Jake Arrieta87.257.534.916.7850.00%
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Johnny Cueto84.535.82.419.4356.00%
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Michael Wacha86.525.75.467.4363.00%
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Mat Latos84.112.377.539.8239.00%
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Allen Webster85.087.825.668.853.00%
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Clayton Kershaw
84.66.6610.319.2536.00%
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David Hernandez
85.284.856.18.5547.00%
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Daniel Hudson84.1310.693.619.6844.00%
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Tom Koehler86.398.524.257.452.00%
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Bud Norris85.667.84.838.0749.00%
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Ivan Nova86.628.635.817.145.00%
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Josh Outman81.487.565.8312.1845.00%
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Lance Lynn85.186.52.168.4751.00%
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Jon Lester85.799.694.487.8259.00%
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Yu Darvish87.646.114.175.9763.00%
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Juan Nicasio85.595.087.467.9732.00%
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Hector Noesi87.18.95.556.4148.00%
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Mike Pelfrey83.788.234.479.7253.00%
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Zack Greinke85.867.913.037.6260.00%
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Ervin Santana85.715.396.937.7754.00%
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Jarrod Parker82.266.865.5711.249.00%
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Jason Hammel86.317.754.587.1251.00%
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Jeremy Guthrie85.6366.217.7947.00%
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Clay Buchholz80.881.936.0512.5445.00%
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Ross Detwiler84.358.345.179.0751.00%
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Chris Carpenter85.416.944.76854.00%
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Martin Perez85.157.666.388.2555.00%
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Gio Gonzalez84.379.244.298.9856.00%
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Chien-Ming Wang
82.697.74.710.6444.00%
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Charlie Morton81.9810.013.9111.3450.00%
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Randall Delgado
82.87.955.110.5151.00%
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Roy Oswalt83.296.63.729.9956.00%
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Roberto Hernandez
85.777.480.767.4662.00%
84
Francisco Liriano
85.959.235.187.2554.00%
85
Alexi Ogando81.957.917.411.2537.00%
86
Brad Peacock81.497.656.5111.7136.00%
87
Lucas Harrell83.727.744.959.4649.00%
88
Anthony Bass84.114.595.999.0244.00%
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Brett Tomko84.798.037.468.2841.00%
90
Phil Hughes84.567.966.328.4941.00%
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Brett Anderson84.598.685.898.4548.00%
92
Matt Harrison83.059.516.99.9740.00%
93
Gil Meche84.086.977.918.9348.00%
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Luke Hochevar83.377.314.619.6348.00%
95
Wade Davis85.696.896.67.2839.00%
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Vin Mazzaro85.817.313.927.1557.00%
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Ian Snell85.347.436.637.5949.00%
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Drew Hutchison85.738.243.77.1843.00%
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Luis Mendoza83.526.645.149.3748.00%
100
Roenis Elias86.4910.423.536.3756.00%
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