Circle Financial Model by chuk_xyz

	A	B	C	D	E	G
1	Circle Financial Model
2	Created by @chuk_xyz, follow on X or LinkedIn for Stablecoin news, analysis and educational content
3	Not financial advice
4	Found this helpful? Let me know your feedback
5	Copy/download the sheet to your drive to make edits
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8		$B	Bear Case	Base Case	Bull Case
9		2030 Stablecoin Market Cap	1,536	3,423	4,924
10		2030 Avg Market Cap	197	556	978
11		USDC Market Share	15%	20%	25%
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13		Total Revenue (Gross)	4.04	11.38	20.00
14		Gross Profit	0.45	2.38	6.13
15		Implied Take rate	0.23%	0.43%	0.63%
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17		Operating costs	(0.32)	(1.14)	(2.37)
18		% of Revenue	8%	10%	12%
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20		Net Income	0.13	1.24	3.76
21		% of Revenue	3%	11%	19%
22						P/E
23		Market Cap at 10x P/E	1.3	12.4	37.6	10
24		Market Cap at 15x P/E	1.9	18.6	56.4	15
25		Market Cap at 20x P/E	2.5	24.8	75.2	20
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28	(h/t to @TheOneandOmsy for the summary of historicals)
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