Don's Book - Evidence/Citation Compilation
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Quotation/EvidenceEvidence NumberPage NumberCitationAdditional Evidence
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In fact, overprecision emerges in nearly all the tests of it psychologists have devised. People usually act as if they are surer than they should be.1.120Don A Moore, Elizabeth R Tenney, and Uriel Haran, “Overprecision in Judgment,” in Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, ed. George Wu and Gideon Keren (New York: Wiley, 2015), 182–212.Harvey, N. (1997). Confidence in judgment. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 1(2), 78–82
Hoffrage, U. (2004). Overconfidence. In R. F. Pohl (Ed.), Cognitive illusions: Fallacies and biases in thinking, judgment, and memory (pp. 235–254). Hove, UK: Psychology Press.
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Research on “flashbulb memories” illustrates the illusion of knowing.1.220“Research on “flashbulb memories” illustrates the illusion of knowing”: Christopher F Chabris and Daniel J Simons, The Invisible Gorilla (New York: Crown, 2010).
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Overconfidence sits at the center of decision biases that lead to error and irrationality.1.322Bazerman, M. H., & Moore, D. A. (2013). Judgment in managerial decision making (8th ed.). New York: Wiley.Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
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In his dissertation research at Cornell University, Kruger showed how easy it is for people to underplace themselves. Ask them about some difficult task, a task on which most people perform poorly or fall short of some salient standard, and they will tell you that they are worse than average.1.428“Kruger showed how easy it is to get people to claim that they are worse than others”: Justin Kruger, “Lake Wobegon Be Gone! The ‘below-Average Effect’ and the Egocentric Nature of Comparative Ability Judgments,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77, no. 2 (1999): 221–32.Windschitl, P. D., Kruger, J., & Simms, E. (2003). The influence of egocentrism and focalism on people’s optimism in competitions: When what affects us equally affects me more. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85(3), 389–408.
Moore, D. A., & Kim, T. G. (2003). Myopic Social Prediction and the Solo Comparison Effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85(6), 1121–1135. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.85.6.1121
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In my research, I rarely find gender differences in confidence, nonverbal confidence expression, or interpretation of others’ confidence.1.530Moore, D. A., & Dev, A. S. (2017). Individual differences in overconfidence. In V. Zeigler-Hill & T. Shackelford (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences. Retrieved from http://osf.io/hzk6qKennedy, J. A., Anderson, C., & Moore, D. A. (2013). When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 122(2), 266–279
Anderson, C., Brion, S., Moore, D. A., & Kennedy, J. A. (2012). A status-enhancement account of overconfidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 103(4), 718–735. https://doi.org/10.1037/a002939
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Instead, it is the most hardworking and conscientious in any organization who worry most about their ability to deliver what others expect of them.1.630Francis J Flynn and Rebecca L Schaumberg, “When Feeling Bad Leads to Feeling Good: Guilt-Proneness and Affective Organizational Commitment.,” Journal of Applied Psychology 97, no. 1 (2012): 124.Spencer, S. M., & Norem, J. K. (1996). Reflection and Distraction Defensive Pessimism, Strategic Optimism, and Performance. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 22(4), 354–365
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In one study of the effectiveness of visualization, psychologists instructed college students to visualize getting good grades on a midterm examination. When that instruction included visualizing the process of studying and preparing for the exam, it led to longer hours of actual study and to better exam performance. By contrast, when the visualization centered exclusively on the positive outcome—that is, the exam result—the researchers did not find that it increased either the hours spent studying or the student’s performance on the exam. For visualization to be effective, it has to influence the actual behavior that affects the fantasized outcome, such as studying, practicing, or working out.1.735Study of visualization and exam performance: Lien B Pham and Shelley E Taylor, “From Thought to Action: Effects of Process-versus Outcome-Based Mental Simulations on Performance,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 25, no. 2 (1999): 250–60.
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In one study of the effectiveness of visualization, psychologists instructed college students to visualize getting good grades on a midterm examination. When that instruction included visualizing the process of studying and preparing for the exam, it led to longer hours of actual study and to better exam performance. By contrast, when the visualization centered exclusively on the positive outcome—that is, the exam result—the researchers did not find that it increased either the hours spent studying or the student’s performance on the exam. For visualization to be effective, it has to influence the actual behavior that affects the fantasized outcome, such as studying, practicing, or working out.1.735“For visualization to be effective, it has to influence the actual behavior that affects the fantasized outcome, such as studying, practicing, or working out”: Shelley E Taylor et al., “Harnessing the Imagination: Mental Simulation, Self-Regulation, and Coping,” American Psychologist 53, no. 4 (1998): 429–39.
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There are many situations in which being too sure of yourself can indeed undermine the very success you envision, as the work of psychologist Jeffrey Vancouver shows. He has examined circumstances in which an increased sense of personal self-efficacy impairs future performance.1.836-37Being too sure of yourself can undermine success: Jeffrey B Vancouver, Kristen M More, and Ryan J Yoder, “Self-Efficacy and Resource Allocation: Support for a Nonmonotonic, Discontinuous Model,” Journal of Applied Psychology 93, no. 1 (2008): 35–47.Vancouver, J. B., Thompson, C. M., Tischner, E. C., & Putka, D. J. (2002). Two studies examining the negative effect of self-efficacy on performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 87(3), 506–516
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The psychologist Gabriele Oettingen has spent her career identifying the many ways in which imagining success can increase failure. She has examined people who want to lose weight, students who want to perform well on their exams, and the lovelorn who want to find romance. She finds that those who fantasize most about a positive future do not actually obtain what they desire; on the contrary, they tend to obtain worse outcomes.1.937-38Gabriele Oettingen, “Positive Fantasy and Motivation,” in The Psychology of Action: Linking Cognition and Motivation to Behavior, ed. Peter M Gollwitzer and John A Bargh (New York: Guilford, 1996), 236–59.Oettingen, G., Mayer, D., & Portnow, S. (2016). Pleasure Now, Pain Later Positive Fantasies About the Future Predict Symptoms of Depression. Psychological Science, 0956797615620783
Oettingen, G., & Mayer, D. (2002). The motivating function of thinking about the future: Expectations versus fantasies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(5), 1198–1212
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