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2 | Company name | VF Corp | Summary Financials | |||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Ticker | VFC | Calendar | 2021A | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | CAGR | ||||||||||||
4 | Exchange | NYSE | Fiscal | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026A | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | Hist. | Forecast | |||||||||||
5 | Industry / sector | Softlines | Fiscal Date (M/D/Y) | 4/2/2022 | 4/1/2023 | 3/30/2024 | 3/29/2025 | 3/28/2026 | 4/3/2027 | 4/1/2028 | 3/31/2029 | 3/30/2030 | 3/29/2031 | 3Y | 3Y | 5Y | ||||||||||
6 | Action | Buy | Sales | $11,842 | $11,612 | $9,916 | $8,963 | $9,296 | $9,540 | $9,913 | $10,347 | $10,802 | $11,278 | -7.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | ||||||||||
7 | Last updated (M/D/Y) | 10/26/2026 | % yoy | -1.9% | -14.6% | -9.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | ||||||||||||||
8 | Most recent FY end (M/D/Y) | 3/28/2026 | % yoy C$ | 0.9% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | |||||||||||||||||
9 | Most recent fiscal qtr | 1Q27 | Consensus | $9,510 | $9,820 | $10,170 | ||||||||||||||||||||
10 | Most recent qtr end date (M/D/Y) | 6/27/2026 | % yoy | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||
11 | Active Case: | Base | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | Gross profit | $6,455 | $6,097 | $5,112 | $4,850 | $5,129 | $5,304 | $5,538 | $5,791 | $6,051 | $6,324 | -5.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | ||||||||||||
13 | Cap Table | % yoy | -5.6% | -16.1% | -5.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |||||||||||||||
14 | Price | $17 | % margin | 54.5% | 52.5% | 51.6% | 54.1% | 55.2% | 55.6% | 55.9% | 56.0% | 56.0% | 56.1% | |||||||||||||
15 | Diluted shares | 408 | bps yoy | -201 bps | -94 bps | 256 bps | 106 bps | 42 bps | 27 bps | 10 bps | 5 bps | 5 bps | ||||||||||||||
16 | Market cap | $7,038 | % incremental margin | 156.4% | 58.0% | 27.5% | 83.7% | 71.5% | 62.8% | 58.3% | 57.2% | 57.2% | ||||||||||||||
17 | + Claims against EV | $5,308 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | - Nonoperating assets | $867 | SG&A | ($4,823) | ($4,972) | ($4,641) | ($4,338) | ($4,479) | ($4,555) | ($4,628) | ($4,733) | ($4,867) | ($4,992) | -3.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | ||||||||||
19 | Enterprise value | $11,479 | % yoy | 3.1% | -6.7% | -6.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | ||||||||||||||
20 | % of sales | 40.7% | 42.8% | 46.8% | 48.4% | 48.2% | 47.7% | 46.7% | 45.7% | 45.1% | 44.3% | |||||||||||||||
21 | DCF | Bear | Base | Bull | bps yoy | 208 bps | 399 bps | 160 bps | -22 bps | -44 bps | -105 bps | -95 bps | -69 bps | -79 bps | ||||||||||||
22 | Enterprise value | $9,945 | $14,439 | $18,155 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | Implied NTM EV/EBITDA | 10.3x | 13.8x | 16.7x | EBITDA | $1,937 | $1,421 | $800 | $799 | $979 | $1,044 | $1,209 | $1,355 | $1,480 | $1,635 | -11.7% | 11.4% | 10.8% | ||||||||
24 | Implied NTM2 EV/EBITDA | 9.8x | 11.9x | 14.0x | % yoy | -26.6% | -43.7% | -0.2% | 22.5% | 6.6% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | ||||||||||||
25 | Equity value/share | $13 | $24 | $33 | % margin | 16.4% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 14.5% | |||||||||||
26 | Implied NTM P/E | 13.1x | 21.2x | 27.5x | bps yoy | -412 bps | -416 bps | 84 bps | 162 bps | 41 bps | 126 bps | 90 bps | 61 bps | 79 bps | ||||||||||||
27 | Implied NTM2 P/E | 11.5x | 15.9x | 19.9x | % incremental margin | 225.0% | 36.6% | 0.1% | 54.0% | 26.4% | 44.5% | 33.6% | 27.5% | 32.5% | ||||||||||||
28 | % return | (23.4%) | 40.5% | 93.3% | Consensus | $1,010 | $1,120 | $1,180 | 6.4% | |||||||||||||||||
29 | Probability | 20% | 60% | 20% | % yoy | 3.2% | 10.9% | 5.4% | ||||||||||||||||||
30 | % margin | 10.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | Price | % return | bps yoy | 9 bps | 78 bps | 20 bps | ||||||||||||||||||||
32 | Wgt-avg PT | $24 | 38.3% | % incremental margin | 14.5% | 35.5% | 17.1% | |||||||||||||||||||
33 | Delta - internal vs. street | 3.3% | 8.0% | 14.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
34 | Reward (75% base, 25% bull) | $27 | 53.7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | Risk | $13 | (23.4%) | Operating Income | $1,632 | $1,125 | $471 | $512 | $650 | $749 | $909 | $1,058 | $1,184 | $1,331 | -16.7% | 17.6% | 15.4% | |||||||||
36 | R/R | 2.3x | % yoy | -31.1% | -58.1% | 8.6% | 26.9% | 15.2% | 21.4% | 16.3% | 12.0% | 12.4% | ||||||||||||||
37 | % margin | 13.8% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 11.8% | |||||||||||||||
38 | EPS Valuation (12M PT) | Bear | Base | Bull | bps yoy | -410 bps | -493 bps | 96 bps | 128 bps | 86 bps | 132 bps | 105 bps | 74 bps | 84 bps | ||||||||||||
39 | 2028 EPS | $1.15 | $1.53 | $1.68 | % incremental margin | 221.2% | 38.5% | -4.3% | 41.4% | 40.5% | 43.1% | 34.2% | 27.8% | 30.9% | ||||||||||||
40 | P/E | 13.0x | 15.0x | 18.0x | ||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | PT | $15 | $23 | $30 | Interest expense, net | ($131) | ($165) | ($166) | ($149) | ($149) | ($99) | ($91) | ($88) | ($58) | ($49) | |||||||||||
42 | % return | (13.2%) | 32.8% | 74.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | Probability | 20% | 60% | 20% | Net income | $1,232 | $823 | $254 | $271 | $336 | $455 | $609 | $729 | $848 | $964 | -25.8% | 29.4% | 23.5% | ||||||||
44 | Diluted avg shares | 392 | 388 | 388 | 393 | 396 | 397 | 399 | 400 | 402 | 404 | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||||||||||
45 | Target | % return | EPS (dil.) | $3.14 | $2.12 | $0.65 | $0.69 | $0.85 | $1.15 | $1.53 | $1.82 | $2.11 | $2.39 | -26.3% | 28.9% | 23.0% | ||||||||||
46 | Wgt-avg PT | $23 | 32.0% | %yoy | (32.5%) | (69.2%) | 5.9% | 22.9% | 34.8% | 33.5% | 19.1% | 16.0% | 13.2% | |||||||||||||
47 | Consensus | $1.10 | $1.38 | $1.66 | 25.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
48 | Reward (75% base, 25% bull) | $25 | 43.3% | % yoy | 29.5% | 25.5% | 20.3% | |||||||||||||||||||
49 | Risk | $15 | (13.2%) | Delta - internal vs. street | 4.1% | 10.7% | 9.7% | |||||||||||||||||||
50 | R/R | 3.3x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | NOPAT | $1,380 | $982 | $392 | $406 | $498 | $589 | $727 | $846 | $944 | $1,054 | -20.2% | 19.3% | 16.2% | ||||||||||||
52 | EBITDA Valuation (12M PT) | Bear | Base | Bull | Net reinvestment (ex-GW) | ($482) | ($1,093) | $794 | $84 | $287 | ($156) | ($179) | ($86) | ($153) | ($161) | |||||||||||
53 | 2028 EBITDA | 1,011 | 1,209 | 1,294 | FCFF | $898 | ($111) | $1,186 | $491 | $786 | $433 | $548 | $760 | $791 | $893 | |||||||||||
54 | EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x | % margin | 7.6% | -1.0% | 12.0% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | |||||||||||
55 | EV | 10,110 | 13,301 | 15,527 | % conversion (FCFF/NOPAT) | 65% | -11% | 302% | 121% | 158% | 73% | 75% | 90% | 84% | 85% | |||||||||||
56 | + Nonoperating assets | 1,224 | 1,339 | 1,340 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | - Claims against EV | 5,355 | 5,380 | 5,396 | IC (ex-GW) | $3,943 | $5,034 | $4,211 | $4,119 | $3,830 | $3,986 | $4,165 | $4,251 | $4,404 | $4,565 | -8.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | ||||||||
58 | Market cap | 5,979 | 9,260 | 11,471 | IC | $9,761 | $10,910 | $9,524 | $7,745 | $7,236 | $7,388 | $7,567 | $7,653 | $7,806 | $7,967 | -12.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | ||||||||
59 | Shares outstanding | 397 | 397 | 397 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Equity value/share | 15 | 23 | 29 | Sales/IC (ex-GW) | 3.1x | 2.4x | 2.1x | 2.2x | 2.3x | 2.3x | 2.4x | 2.4x | 2.4x | 2.4x | |||||||||||
61 | % return | (12.7%) | 35.2% | 67.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | Probability | 20% | 60% | 20% | ROIC (ex-GW) | 35.7% | 20.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 19.6% | 21.2% | 22.8% | |||||||||||
63 | ROIC | 14.2% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.2% | |||||||||||||||
64 | Target | % return | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | Wgt-avg PT | $23 | 32.0% | EBITDAR/(interest + rent) | 4.1x | 3.1x | 1.8x | 2.1x | 2.4x | 2.7x | 3.0x | 3.2x | 3.5x | 3.7x | ||||||||||||
66 | ND/EBITDAR | 2.4x | 4.1x | 5.7x | 4.3x | 3.1x | 2.7x | 2.2x | 1.6x | 1.1x | 0.7x | |||||||||||||||
67 | Reward (75% base, 25% bull) | $25 | 43.2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | Risk | $15 | (12.7%) | EV/Sales | 1.2x | 1.2x | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.0x | |||||||||||||||||
69 | R/R | 3.4x | EV/NOPAT | 19.5x | 15.8x | 13.6x | 12.2x | 10.9x | ||||||||||||||||||
70 | EV/IC | 1.6x | 1.5x | 1.5x | 1.5x | 1.4x | ||||||||||||||||||||
71 | EPS Valuation (3Y Returns) | Bear | Base | Bull | EV/FCFF | 26.5x | 20.9x | 15.1x | 14.5x | 12.8x | ||||||||||||||||
72 | 2030 EPS | $1.40 | $2.11 | $2.49 | % yield | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | ||||||||||||||||
73 | P/E | 13.0x | 15.0x | 18.0x | EV/EBITDA | 11.0x | 9.5x | 8.5x | 7.8x | 7.0x | ||||||||||||||||
74 | PT | $18 | $32 | $45 | Street EV/EBITDA | 11.4x | 10.2x | 9.7x | ||||||||||||||||||
75 | % return | 5.2% | 83.4% | 159.8% | P/E | 15.1x | 11.3x | 9.5x | 8.2x | 7.2x | ||||||||||||||||
76 | % IRR | 1.7% | 22.4% | 37.5% | Street P/E | 15.7x | 12.5x | 10.4x | ||||||||||||||||||
77 | x MOIC | 1.1x | 1.8x | 2.6x | ||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | Probability | 25% | 60% | 15% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
79 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | Wgt-avg PT | $30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
81 | % return | 75.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
82 | % IRR | 20.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
83 | x MOIC | 1.8x | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
84 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
85 | EBITDA Valuation (3Y Returns) | Bear | Base | Bull | ||||||||||||||||||||||
86 | 2030 EBITDA | 1,136 | 1,480 | 1,684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
87 | EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x | ||||||||||||||||||||||
88 | EV | $11,359 | $16,281 | $20,210 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
89 | + Nonoperating assets | 529 | 716 | 827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | - Claims against EV | 4,228 | 3,788 | 3,843 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
91 | Market cap | 7,660 | 13,208 | 17,195 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | Shares outstanding | 400 | 400 | 400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
93 | PT | 19 | 33 | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | % return | 10.9% | 91.1% | 148.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | % IRR | 3.5% | 24.1% | 35.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | x MOIC | 1.1x | 1.9x | 2.5x | ||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | Probability | 35% | 50% | 15% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | Wgt-avg PT | $30 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | % return | 71.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||