CPSP Skeleton BOTEC [public]

	A	B	C	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q
1				Aggregate	Tranche 1>>	Sri Lanka	Nepal	India (Maharashtra)	Tranche 2>>	Regional	China	Tranche 3>>	UN (Global)	Tranche 4>>	Guyana	Tanzania

2
3	Costs
4
5			Costs ($m)	7.2	3.2				1.6			1.9		0.4
6
7	Baseline disease burden
8
9			Annual deaths from pesticide suicide	71,470		810	963	6,315		9,000	45,000		9,000		114	268
10
11	Effectiveness
12
13		Probability of outcomes
14			No effect			40%	40%	50%		50%	70%		50%		50%	50%
15			Deregistering pesticides covering 1-20% of pesticide suicides			35%	35%	30%		40%	20%		40%		30%	30%
16			Deregistering pesticides covering 20-40% of pesticide suicides			15%	15%	10%		6%	5%		6%		10%	10%
17			Deregistering pesticides covering 40-60% of pesticide suicides			7%	7%	8%		3%	4%		3%		8%	8%
18			Deregistering pesticides covering >60% of pesticide suicides			3%	3%	2%		1%	1%		1%		2%	2%
19
20			Checksum			OK	OK	OK		OK	OK		OK		OK	OK
21
22		Adjustment for method substitution
23			Deregistering pesticides covering 1-20% of pesticide suicides	70%
24			Deregistering pesticides covering 20-40% of pesticide suicides	77%
25			Deregistering pesticides covering 40-60% of pesticide suicides	83%
26			Deregistering pesticides covering >60% of pesticide suicides	90%
27
28		Translation from deregistration to reduction in suicides
29			Adjustment for enforcement	85%
30
31		Annual lives saved in each scenario
32		0%	No effect			0	0	0		0	0		0		0	0
33		8%	Deregistering pesticides covering 0-20% of pesticide suicides			39	46	301		428	2,142		428		5	13
34		28.00%	Deregistering pesticides covering 20-40% of pesticide suicides			148	176	1,152		1,642	8,211		1,642		21	49
35		48%	Deregistering pesticides covering 40-60% of pesticide suicides			275	327	2,147		3,060	15,300		3,060		39	91
36		70%	Deregistering pesticides covering >60% of pesticide suicides			434	516	3,381		4,820	24,098		4,820		61	144
37
38			Expected annual lives saved			68	81	445		410	1,692		410		8	19
39
40		Speed up
41			Number of years brought forward	9
42			Expected annual change in pesticide suicides without intervention			-3.2%	0.7%	-0.9%		-0.8%	-2.5%		-0.8%		-0.9%	2.1%
43			Adjustment for change in pesticide suicide without intervention			85%	104%	96%		96%	89%		96%		96%	111%
44
45			Expected lives saved	25,938	5,105	521	753	3,831	17,026	3,549	13,477	3,549	3,549	258	69	189
46
47			Checksum	OK
48
49	Other adjustments
50
51			Government costs of enforcing regulation	95%
52			Reduced or increased treatment costs	102%
53			Reduced or increased morbidity	109%
54			Reduced mortality from accidental poisoning	103%
55			Reduced pesticide residues	102%
56			Reduced ecological harm/externalities of banned pesticides	105%
57			Additional monitoring costs	90%
58			Risk of agricultural harm	70%
59
60			Total adjustments	73%
61
62	Cost-effectiveness
63
64			Cost ($m)	7
65			Expected lives saved	25,938
66
67			Cost per life saved (before qualitative adjustments)	277	625				95			548		1701
68			Checksum	OK
69
70			Value of preventing one death from pesticide suicide	66.4
71			Total units of value from reduced mortality	1,722,265	338,946	34,572	49,997	254,376	1,130,505	235,663	894,842	235,663	235,663	17,151	4,585	12,567
72			Checksum	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK	OK
73			Units of value generated per thousand dollars spent	239	106				696			121		39
74			GiveDirectly (units of value generated per thousand dollars spent)	3.4
75
76			Multiples of cash (before qualitative adjustments)	70	31				205			36		11
77			Multiples of cash (after qualitative adjustments)	52	23				150			26		8
78
79	First 3 tranches
80
81			Cost ($m)	6.8
82			Expected lives saved	25,679
83
84			Cost per life saved (before qualitative adjustments)	263
85			Total units of value from reduced mortality	1,705,114
86			Units of value generated per thousand dollars spent	252
87
88			Multiples of cash (before qualitative adjustments)	74
89			Multiples of cash (after qualitative adjustments)	54
90
91