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Lesson 8.4 - Proposition 98
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This workbook contains overlapping work-in-progress drafts. It is confusing and should not be taken as true.
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Part of the challenge is that we are trying to replicate figures that are released by LAO and DOF, which don't necessarily agree
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Another challenge is that budget figures change, and they are subject to differences in definition.
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This sheet was originally developed in 2021 in an effort to get at "real numbers" behind the LAO chart below:
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To reproduce it, we needed four things (see sources below)
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Annual actual Prop98 expenditures broken out by K-12 and K-14 which is VERY HARD TO FIND
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State component (final, not just budgeted)
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Local Property tax component (final, not just budgeted)
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Annual K12 enrollment
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discovery: the LAO uses attendance (ADA) rather than enrollment, which delivers a smaller count of students and inflates the $/student calculation by at least 5%
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annual community college... enrollment? attendance? (UNRESOLVED)
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Inflation series for adjustment
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Sources:
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https://www.dof.ca.gov/budget/summary_schedules_charts/documents/July-2020/CHART-C-1.pdf
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https://www.dof.ca.gov/budget/summary_schedules_charts/documents/July-2020/CHART-C-3.pdf
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!! These numbers were not consistently updated after Jan 10 budget
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I ended up requesting the canonical numbers from the California LAO. The numbers in this chart are OFFICIAL.
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http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/2021-22/pdf/BudgetSummary/BS_SCH13.pdf
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https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3526
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https://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3870/3
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I ended up requesting the canonical numbers from the California LAO. The numbers in this chart are OFFICIAL.
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I ended up requesting the canonical numbers from the California LAO. The numbers in this chart are OFFICIAL.
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A829RD3Q086SBEA
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The inflator used is set in law! https://law.justia.com/codes/california/2019/code-gov/title-2/division-4/part-7/chapter-4/article-2/section-17581-7/
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https://northstarpolicy.org/the-real-story-behind-state-and-local-government-inflation
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http://www.mn2020.org/issues-that-matter/fiscal-policy/taking-the-spin-out-of-inflation-estimates
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USE THIS SOURCE from the California department of Finance:
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https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting/Economics/economic-indicators/inflation/
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Use the FISCAL YEAR national series for state and local government
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More about CPI-U
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https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/supplemental-files/historical-cpi-u-202012.pdf
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Notes
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Years if abbreviated are by fiscal year (e.g. 2014-15 is shown as 2015)
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In July 2022, the LAO released this updated chart:
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Department of Finance
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In Jan 2023, the DOF released Prop98 forecast for 2023-24
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https://ebudget.ca.gov/2023-24/pdf/BudgetSummary/BS_SCH10.pdf
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Enacted 2023-24 budget
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https://ebudget.ca.gov/2023-24/pdf/Enacted/BudgetSummary/K-12Education.pdf
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Proposition 98 K12 funding levels of $110.6 billion in 2021-22, $107.4 billion in 2022-23, and $108.3 billion in 2023-24.
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Enacted 2024-25 budget -- See columns LMNO
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https://ebudget.ca.gov/2024-25/pdf/Enacted/BudgetSummary/K-12Education.pdf
NominalInflation-adj
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2010-1149.774.11.490330423
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2011-1247.368.91.456686109
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2012-1358.181.91.409932044
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2013-145981.41.378936605
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2014-1567.192.71.382187148
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 --->2015-1669.195.61.383037637
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2016-1771.696.61.3486
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2017-1875.697.91.295111879
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2018-1978.5100.21.276599773
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2019-2079.398.41.24077652
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2020-2196.1111.91.164694706
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2021-22110.5119.21.079138993
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2022-2397.3103.21.060970813
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2023-2498.5101.61.031355154
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2024-25115.3115.31
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