| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | |
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1 | Rank | Variable | R² (%) | Pearson r | p-value | Description | ||||||||||||||||||||
2 | 1 | state_FE_composite | 24.763206 | 0.4976 | 0 | Composite R² of a regression of GOPswing_pp on state indicator dummies. Represents the combined explanatory power of all state-level fixed effects - candidate quality, ballot access rules, state media environment, and any other state-specific factor - treated as a single predictor for ranking purposes. | ||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 2 | pct_NH_White | 22.661267 | -0.476 | 0 | Share of county population identifying as Non-Hispanic White alone (2020 Decennial Census P9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
4 | 3 | 2000_GOPMargin | 19.886136 | -0.4459 | 0 | County-level Republican margin (GOP% minus Dem%) in the 2000 presidential election. Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab county presidential returns. | ||||||||||||||||||||
5 | 4 | pct_anc_OtherGroups | 18.530954 | 0.4305 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as "Other groups" heavily concentrated in Scots-Irish Appalachian communities where residents identify as "American" (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 5 | 2004_GOPMargin | 16.971248 | -0.412 | 0 | County-level Republican margin in the 2004 presidential election. Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. | ||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 6 | 2012_GOPMargin | 16.941824 | -0.4116 | 0 | County-level Republican margin in the 2012 presidential election. Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. | ||||||||||||||||||||
8 | 7 | pct_less9thGrade | 16.294784 | 0.4037 | 0 | Percent of population 25+ with less than a 9th grade education (ACS 5-year 2020, S1501) | ||||||||||||||||||||
9 | 8 | pct_Hispanic | 15.514117 | 0.3939 | 0 | Share of county population identifying as Hispanic or Latino of any race (2020 Decennial Census P9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 9 | 2008_GOPMargin | 14.212795 | -0.377 | 0 | County-level Republican margin in the 2008 presidential election. Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. | ||||||||||||||||||||
11 | 10 | 2016_GOPMargin | 13.852995 | -0.3722 | 0 | County-level Republican margin in the 2016 presidential election. Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab. | ||||||||||||||||||||
12 | 11 | pct_poverty | 12.081715 | 0.3476 | 0 | Percent of population below the federal poverty line (ACS 5-year 2020, S1701) | ||||||||||||||||||||
13 | 12 | avg_delinq_rate | 11.093265 | 0.3331 | 0 | Average 90-day delinquency rate among county residents in 2020, pooled across all income levels and racial groups. Higher values indicate higher rates of debt delinquency. Source: Opportunity Insights / Experian credit bureau data (shrunk county-level estimates, par_pctile=-9 pooled row). | ||||||||||||||||||||
14 | 13 | avg_credit_score | 10.783305 | -0.3284 | 0 | Average Vantage credit score among county residents in 2020, pooled across all income levels and racial groups. Source: Opportunity Insights / Experian credit bureau data (shrunk estimates, par_pctile=-9 pooled row). | ||||||||||||||||||||
15 | 14 | pct_single_parent | 7.823945 | 0.2797 | 0 | Percent of households that are single-parent households. Source: CDC PLACES / ACS 2017-2021 5-year estimates (SDOH measure SNGPNT). | ||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 15 | pct_no_vehicle | 7.682788 | 0.2772 | 0 | Percent of occupied housing units with no vehicle available (ACS 5-year 2020, DP04) | ||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 16 | pct_unemployed | 7.376783 | 0.2716 | 0 | Percent of civilian labor force aged 16+ who are unemployed. Source: CDC PLACES / ACS 2017-2021 5-year estimates (SDOH measure UNEMP). | ||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 17 | pct_broadband | 6.997338 | -0.2645 | 0 | Percent of households with a broadband internet subscription (ACS 5-year 2020, S2802) | ||||||||||||||||||||
19 | 18 | pct_NH_Black | 5.38752 | 0.2321 | 0 | Share of county population identifying as Non-Hispanic Black or African American alone (2020 Decennial Census P9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
20 | 19 | pct_housing_cost_burdened | 5.066778 | 0.2251 | 0 | Percent of households spending more than 30% of income on housing costs. Source: CDC PLACES / ACS 2017-2021 5-year estimates (SDOH measure HCOST). | ||||||||||||||||||||
21 | 20 | avg_mortgage_balance | 5.008231 | -0.2238 | 0 | Average mortgage balance in dollars among county residents in 2020, pooled across all income levels and racial groups. Source: Opportunity Insights / Experian credit bureau data (shrunk estimates, par_pctile=-9 pooled row). | ||||||||||||||||||||
22 | 21 | rel_blackProt_per1k | 4.965307 | 0.2228 | 0 | Black Protestant adherents per 1,000 population (ARDA 2020 Religious Congregations and Membership Study) | ||||||||||||||||||||
23 | 22 | pct_occ_mgmt | 4.958484 | -0.2227 | 0 | Percent of employed civilians in management, business, science, and arts occupations (ACS 5-year 2020, S2401) | ||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 23 | pct_veteran | 4.894422 | -0.2212 | 0 | Percent of civilian population 18+ who are veterans (ACS 5-year 2020, S2101) | ||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 24 | pct_NH_MultiRacial | 4.445855 | -0.2109 | 0 | Share of county population identifying as Non-Hispanic two or more races (2020 Decennial Census P9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
26 | 25 | pct_occ_service | 4.333247 | 0.2082 | 0 | Percent of employed civilians in service occupations (ACS 5-year 2020, S2401) | ||||||||||||||||||||
27 | 26 | pct_commute_WFH | 4.276756 | -0.2068 | 0 | Percent of workers 16+ who work from home (ACS 5-year 2020, S0802) | ||||||||||||||||||||
28 | 27 | pct_no_internet | 4.193708 | 0.2048 | 0 | Percent of households without any internet subscription (ACS 5-year 2020, S2802) | ||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 28 | rel_catholic_per1k | 4.06441 | 0.2016 | 0 | Catholic adherents per 1,000 population (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
30 | 29 | pct_owner_occupied | 3.948375 | -0.1987 | 0 | Percent of occupied housing units that are owner-occupied (ACS 5-year 2020, DP04) | ||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 30 | pct_mobile_home | 3.947558 | 0.1987 | 0 | Percent of housing units that are mobile homes (ACS 5-year 2020, DP04) | ||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 31 | covid_deaths | 3.486843 | 0.1867 | 0 | Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the county from January 2020 through September 2023. Values of 1–9 were suppressed by CDC for small-count confidentiality and set to 0. Counties with no data also set to 0. Source: CDC National Center for Health Statistics provisional COVID-19 deaths by county. | ||||||||||||||||||||
33 | 32 | median_age | 3.350288 | -0.183 | 0 | Median age of county population in years (ACS 5-year 2020, DP05) | ||||||||||||||||||||
34 | 33 | pct_commute_transit | 3.242262 | 0.1801 | 0 | Percent of workers 16+ who use public transit to commute (ACS 5-year 2020, S0802) | ||||||||||||||||||||
35 | 34 | median_hh_income | 3.14612 | -0.1774 | 0 | Median household income in 2020 inflation-adjusted dollars (ACS 5-year 2020, B19013). Jeff Davis County TX imputed to national median $59,286 due to Census suppression. | ||||||||||||||||||||
36 | 35 | avg_cc_balance | 3.05085 | -0.1747 | 0 | Average credit card balance in dollars among county residents in 2020, pooled across all income levels and racial groups. Source: Opportunity Insights / Experian credit bureau data (shrunk estimates, par_pctile=-9 pooled row). | ||||||||||||||||||||
37 | 36 | pct_bachelors_plus | 3.042317 | -0.1744 | 0 | Percent of population 25+ with a Bachelor's degree or higher (ACS 5-year 2020, S1501) | ||||||||||||||||||||
38 | 37 | pct_over65 | 2.510035 | -0.1584 | 0 | Percent of county population aged 65 and over (ACS 5-year 2020, DP05) | ||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 38 | rel_mainlineProt_per1k | 2.263271 | -0.1504 | 0 | Mainline Protestant adherents per 1,000 population UMC, ELCA, PCUSA, Episcopal, etc. (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 39 | avg_student_balance | 2.251587 | 0.1501 | 0 | Average student loan balance in dollars among county residents in 2020, pooled across all income levels and racial groups. Source: Opportunity Insights / Experian credit bureau data (shrunk estimates, par_pctile=-9 pooled row). | ||||||||||||||||||||
41 | 40 | pct_anc_Welsh | 2.156101 | -0.1468 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Welsh (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 41 | pct_no_telephone | 2.076061 | 0.1441 | 0 | Percent of occupied housing units with no telephone service (ACS 5-year 2020, DP04) | ||||||||||||||||||||
43 | 42 | pop_density_per_sqmi | 1.995111 | 0.1412 | 0 | County population per square mile of land area 2020 Census population divided by land area from Census Gazetteer | ||||||||||||||||||||
44 | 43 | pct_NH_Asian | 1.99035 | 0.1411 | 0 | Share of county population identifying as Non-Hispanic Asian alone (2020 Decennial Census P9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
45 | 44 | pct_anc_ScotchIrish | 1.941561 | -0.1393 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Scotch-Irish (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
46 | 45 | rel_jewish_per1k | 1.880927 | 0.1371 | 0 | Jewish adherents per 1,000 population combined Conservative, Reform, Orthodox, and Independent (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
47 | 46 | pct_anc_Guyanese | 1.693736 | 0.1301 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Guyanese concentrated in New York metro area (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
48 | 47 | rel_LDS_per1k | 1.605528 | -0.1267 | 0 | Latter-day Saints (Mormon) adherents per 1,000 population (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
49 | 48 | pct_moved_diff_state | 1.391621 | -0.118 | 0 | Percent of population 1+ who moved from a different state in the prior year (ACS 5-year 2020, S0701) | ||||||||||||||||||||
50 | 49 | rel_orthodox_per1k | 1.321799 | 0.115 | 0 | Eastern Orthodox adherents per 1,000 population (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
51 | 50 | pct_lack_plumbing | 1.213531 | 0.1102 | 0 | Percent of occupied housing units lacking complete plumbing facilities (ACS 5-year 2020, DP04) | ||||||||||||||||||||
52 | 51 | rel_muslim_per1k | 1.201915 | 0.1096 | 0 | Muslim adherents per 1,000 population (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
53 | 52 | pct_occ_production | 1.18218 | 0.1087 | 0 | Percent of employed civilians in production, transportation, and material moving occupations (ACS 5-year 2020, S2401) | ||||||||||||||||||||
54 | 53 | pct_bottledGas | 1.151826 | -0.1073 | 0 | Percent of housing units using bottled, tank, or LP gas as primary heating fuel (ACS 5-year 2020, B25040) | ||||||||||||||||||||
55 | 54 | pct_anc_Czechoslovakian | 1.044409 | -0.1022 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Czechoslovakian (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
56 | 55 | pct_coalHeat | 0.888539 | -0.0943 | 0 | Percent of housing units using coal or coke as primary heating fuel (ACS 5-year 2020, B25040) | ||||||||||||||||||||
57 | 56 | pct_anc_Polish | 0.873966 | -0.0935 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Polish (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
58 | 57 | pct_under18 | 0.854084 | 0.0924 | 0 | Percent of county population under 18 years old (ACS 5-year 2020, DP05) | ||||||||||||||||||||
59 | 58 | pct_commute_carpool | 0.787321 | 0.0887 | 0 | Percent of workers 16+ who carpool to work (ACS 5-year 2020, S0802) | ||||||||||||||||||||
60 | 59 | pct_anc_Albanian | 0.778804 | 0.0882 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Albanian (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
61 | 60 | pct_wood_heat | 0.764063 | -0.0874 | 0 | Percent of housing units using wood as primary heating fuel (ACS 5-year 2020, B25040) | ||||||||||||||||||||
62 | 61 | pct_anc_Portuguese | 0.763451 | 0.0874 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Portuguese (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
63 | 62 | covid_death_pct | 0.713628 | 0.0845 | 0 | COVID-19 deaths as a share of all-cause deaths in the county, January 2020–September 2023 a measure of relative COVID mortality burden rather than absolute count. Source: CDC NCHS provisional COVID-19 deaths by county. | ||||||||||||||||||||
64 | 63 | pct_deg_business | 0.694669 | 0.0833 | 0 | Percent of BA holders whose field is business (ACS 5-year 2020, S1502) | ||||||||||||||||||||
65 | 64 | pct_anc_American | 0.694287 | -0.0833 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as "American" concentrated in upland South/Appalachian counties (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
66 | 65 | UrbanicityCode | 0.674628 | -0.0821 | 0 | NCHS Urban-Rural Classification scheme, 1–6 scale: 1=Large central metro, 2=Large fringe metro, 3=Medium metro, 4=Small metro, 5=Micropolitan, 6=Non-core rural. Source: National Center for Health Statistics | ||||||||||||||||||||
67 | 66 | state_scrabble_score | 0.668087 | 0.0817 | 0 | Sum of standard Scrabble tile values for letters in the state name. Companion to county_scrabble_score another negative control with no causal meaning. | ||||||||||||||||||||
68 | 67 | pct_anc_Macedonian | 0.664557 | 0.0815 | 0 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Macedonian (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
69 | 68 | rel_unitarian_per1k | 0.634956 | -0.0797 | 0 | Unitarian Universalist adherents per 1,000 population (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
70 | 69 | pct_NH_AIAN | 0.58857 | 0.0767 | 0 | Share of county population identifying as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native alone (2020 Decennial Census P9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
71 | 70 | pct_commute_other | 0.564307 | -0.0751 | 0 | Percent of workers 16+ using other means to commute walking, cycling, motorcycle, canoe, etc. (ACS 5-year 2020, S0802) | ||||||||||||||||||||
72 | 71 | pct_boat_rv_van | 0.524182 | 0.0724 | 0.0001 | Percent of housing units classified as boat, RV, van, or other non-traditional structure (ACS 5-year 2020, DP04) | ||||||||||||||||||||
73 | 72 | pct_anc_GermanRussian | 0.492472 | -0.0702 | 0.0001 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as German Russian Volga German diaspora, concentrated in ND/KS/NE (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
74 | 73 | pct_no_fuel | 0.465811 | 0.0683 | 0.0002 | Percent of housing units using no fuel for heating (ACS 5-year 2020, B25040) | ||||||||||||||||||||
75 | 74 | pct_anc_PAGerman | 0.463472 | -0.0681 | 0.0002 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Pennsylvania German proxy for Old Order Amish and related Plain communities (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
76 | 75 | pct_anc_Afghan | 0.445892 | 0.0668 | 0.0003 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Afghan (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
77 | 76 | pct_toddlers_enrolled | 0.428914 | 0.0655 | 0.0004 | Percent of 3-4 year olds enrolled in school nursery/preschool enrollment rate (ACS 5-year 2020, S1401) | ||||||||||||||||||||
78 | 77 | rel_total_per1k | 0.420321 | 0.0648 | 0.0004 | Total religious adherents per 1,000 population across all denominations (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
79 | 78 | Is_Unisyn_Any | 0.418788 | -0.0647 | 0.0004 | Binary indicator: Unisyn equipment is used for any ballot type (EDay, early, or mail) in this county. Source: Verified Voting Verifier 2024. | ||||||||||||||||||||
80 | 79 | pct_anc_Israeli | 0.418175 | 0.0647 | 0.0004 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Israeli (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
81 | 80 | Is_ESS_Any | 0.413747 | 0.0643 | 0.0004 | Binary indicator: ESS equipment is used for any ballot type (EDay, early, or mail) in this county. Source: Verified Voting Verifier 2024. | ||||||||||||||||||||
82 | 81 | pct_fb_from_Africa | 0.400846 | -0.0633 | 0.0006 | Share of foreign-born residents born in Africa (ACS 5-year 2020, S0502) | ||||||||||||||||||||
83 | 82 | pct_deg_STEM | 0.397205 | -0.063 | 0.0006 | Percent of BA holders whose field is science or engineering (ACS 5-year 2020, S1502) | ||||||||||||||||||||
84 | 83 | pct_fb_from_Asia | 0.369444 | -0.0608 | 0.0009 | Share of foreign-born residents born in Asia (ACS 5-year 2020, S0502) | ||||||||||||||||||||
85 | 84 | pct_AllSixRaces | 0.326116 | -0.0571 | 0.0018 | Share of county population identifying as all six OMB racial categories simultaneously the "Dolezal Coefficient" (2020 Decennial Census P9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
86 | 85 | pct_anc_Canadian | 0.323944 | -0.0569 | 0.0019 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Canadian (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
87 | 86 | pct_35plus_enrolled | 0.282823 | 0.0532 | 0.0037 | Percent of adults 35+ currently enrolled in school adult education proxy (ACS 5-year 2020, S1401) | ||||||||||||||||||||
88 | 87 | pct_fb_from_NorthAm | 0.24658 | -0.0497 | 0.0068 | Share of foreign-born residents born in Northern America (Canada, etc.) (ACS 5-year 2020, S0502) | ||||||||||||||||||||
89 | 88 | rel_nonDenom_per1k | 0.231736 | -0.0481 | 0.0086 | Non-denominational Protestant adherents per 1,000 population (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
90 | 89 | pct_anc_Cypriot | 0.2183 | 0.0467 | 0.0108 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Cypriot (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
91 | 90 | pct_gradschool_public | 0.209511 | -0.0458 | 0.0125 | Percent of graduate school students attending public institutions (ACS 5-year 2020, S1401) | ||||||||||||||||||||
92 | 91 | pct_anc_Iranian | 0.191881 | 0.0438 | 0.0169 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Iranian (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
93 | 92 | pct_NH_OtherRace | 0.184583 | 0.043 | 0.0191 | Share of county population identifying as Non-Hispanic Some Other Race alone (2020 Decennial Census P9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
94 | 93 | pct_fb_from_Europe | 0.178726 | -0.0423 | 0.0211 | Share of foreign-born residents born in Europe (ACS 5-year 2020, S0502) | ||||||||||||||||||||
95 | 94 | rel_buddhist_per1k | 0.177929 | 0.0422 | 0.0214 | Buddhist adherents per 1,000 population combined Theravada and Mahayana (ARDA 2020) | ||||||||||||||||||||
96 | 95 | pct_anc_Basque | 0.175473 | -0.0419 | 0.0223 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Basque small Iberian/French ethnic group, concentrated in a handful of western counties (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
97 | 96 | noise | 0.146197 | 0.0382 | 0.0371 | Random standard normal variable, seeded at 42. Included as a baseline: any predictor with lower R² than this column provides less signal than a coin flip. | ||||||||||||||||||||
98 | 97 | Is_HandCount_Any | 0.145791 | -0.0382 | 0.0373 | Binary indicator: Hand Count equipment is used for any ballot type (EDay, early, or mail) in this county. Source: Verified Voting Verifier 2024. | ||||||||||||||||||||
99 | 98 | pct_anc_Romanian | 0.127976 | -0.0358 | 0.0511 | Share of ancestry responses recorded as Romanian (ACS 5-year 2020, B04004) | ||||||||||||||||||||
100 | 99 | pct_fb_naturalized | 0.113148 | -0.0336 | 0.0666 | Share of the foreign-born population who are naturalized U.S. citizens (ACS 5-year 2020, S0502) |