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DateFlight NameCutpoint NameLATEHalf-BWDouble-BWOverallLATEHalf-BWDouble-BW
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5/7/2020Southwest Airlines Flight 1392a1No SigPositiveNo SigPositive21687
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2/23/2019Atlas Air Flight 3591a2PositivePositiveNo SigNegative9342
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4/17/2018Southwest Airlines Flight 1380a3PositiveNo SigNo SigNo Sig60211821
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7/6/2013Asiana Airlines Flight 214a4No SigNo SigNo Sig
Notes on RDD Results
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12/8/2000Southwest Airlines Flight 1248a5No SigPositivePositiveIt appears that aviation accidents involving Boeing legacy planes have little effect on Boeing stock values. The majority of causal negative impact appears to be derived from when new versions of aircrafts experience critical failures (like the 737-Max series). Overall, the results here appear to demonstrate the decline in Boeing share prices after an accident do little to suppress the value of the stock for any considerable amount of time.
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8/11/2000Southwest Airlines Flight 1763a6No SigNo SigNo Sig
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7/2/2021Transair Flight 810a7No SigNo SigNo Sig
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5/23/2021Ryanair Flight 4978 a8No SigNo SigPositive
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2/20/2021Longtail Aviation Flight 5504 a9No SigNo SigNo Sig
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1/9/2021Sriwijaya Air Flight 182a10No SigNo SigNo Sig
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8/7/2020Air India Express Flight 1344a11No SigNo SigPositive
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2/5/2020Pegasus Airlines Flight 2193a12No SigNo SigPositiveNotes on Linear Regression Model Results
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1/14/2020Delta Air Lines Flight 89a13No SigPositiveNo SigIn addition to the RDD results, a linear regression was performed adjusting for similar variables. The result showed to statistically significant effect to BA stock price on the day of the incident, but 30 days after the accident, BA stock increased to an effect of $1.58. When the same variables are accounted for with BA stock close expressed logarithmically (natural) we see a 9% drop in BA shares the day of the accident with no significance in the plus 30 days. The only other significant variables are the performance of the VIX and the opening of BA shares, both one scale of magnitude less than the accident variable.
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1/8/2020Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752a14No SigNegativeNo Sig
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5/3/2019Miami Air International Flight 293a15No SigNo SigNo Sig
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3/10/2019Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302a16NegativeNegativeNegative
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2/14/2019Biman Bangladesh Airlines Flight 147a17No SigNegativeNo Sig
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2/23/2019Atlas Air Flight 3591a18PositivePositiveNo Sig
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1/14/2019A Saha Airlines Boeing 707 crashesa19NegativeNegativeNo Sig
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11/9/2018Fly Jamaica Airways Flight 256a20NegativeNo SigNegative
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10/29/2018Lion Air Flight 610a21No SigNo SigNo Sig
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10/11/2018Air India Express Flight 611a22No SigNo SigNo Sig
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9/28/2018Air Niugini Flight 73a23PositivePositivePositive
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9/1/2018UTair Flight 579a24No SigNo SigNo Sig
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8/16/2018Xiamen Airlines Flight 8667a25PositivePositivePositive
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5/18/2018Cubana de Aviación Flight 972a26PositiveNo SigPositive
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4/17/2018Turkish Airlines Flight 6491a27No SigNo SigNo Sig
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2/19/2018United Airlines Flight 1175a28No SigNo SigNo Sig
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1/13/2018Pegasus Airlines Flight 8622a29No SigNo SigNo Sig
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3/28/2017Peruvian Airlines Flight 112a30No SigPositiveNo Sig
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For information purposes only
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