| A | B | C | D | E | F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Model input parameters | |||||
2 | Category | Definition | Value | Base-case value | Range of values in sensitivity analysis | Source |
3 | CKRT demand during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic | IHME model update (Choose Date of Data) | IHME projections from 06/10 | 06/10/2020 | 04/22/2020, 06/10/2020 | IHME COVID-19 estimate downloads http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads |
4 | CKRT demand during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic | Incidence of AKI 3D requiring CKRT among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (%) | 5.20% | 5.20% | 4.8 - 6.9% | 1. Richardson S, Hirsch JS, Narasimhan M, et al. Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area. JAMA. 2020;323(20):2052-2059. 2. Argenziano MG, Bruce SL, Slater CL, et al. Characterization and Clinical Course of 1000 Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 in New York: Retrospective Case Series. BMJ. 2020;369:m1996. 3. Cummings MJ, Baldwin MR, Abrams D, et al. Epidemiology, Clinical Course, and Outcomes of Critically Ill Adults with COVID-19 in New York City: A Prospective Cohort Study. Lancet. 2020;395(10239):1763-1770. 4. Goyal P, Choi JJ, Pinheiro LC, et al. Clinical Characteristics of Covid-19 in New York City. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(24):2372-2374. 5. Hirsch JS, Ng JH, Ross DW, et al. Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19. Kidney Int. 2020;98(1):209-218. |
5 | CKRT demand during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic | Time from hospitalization to AKI 3D requiring CKRT among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (days) | 7 days | 7 days | 5 - 10 days | 1. Zhou F, Yu T, Du R, et al. Clinical Course and Risk Factors for Mortality of Adult Inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: A Retrospective Cohort Study. Lancet. 2020;395(10229):1054-1062. |
6 | CKRT demand during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic | Duration of CKRT among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (days) | 6 days | 6 days | 6 - 9 days | 1. Palevsky PM, Zhang JH, O'Connor TZ, et al. Intensity of Renal Support in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Kidney Injury. N Engl J Med. 2008;359(1):7-20. 2. Hirsch JS, Ng JH, Ross DW, et al. Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19. Kidney Int. 2020;98(1):209-218. |
7 | CKRT demand during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic | Non-COVID-19 CKRT demand multiplier during the COVID-19 pandemic | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.25 - 0.75 | 1. Harvard Global Health Institute COVID-19 model. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XUVyZF3X_4m72ztFnXZFvDKn5Yys1aKgu2Zmefd7wVo/edit#gid=1576394115. Accessed July 6, 2020. 2. American Hospital Association, AHA Hospital Statistics, Chicago, IL. American Hospital Association 2018. 3. American Hospital Directory. Hospital Statistics by State. https://www.ahd.com/state_statistics.html. Accessed July 6, 2020. |
8 | CKRT demand during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and CKRT capacity | Prevalence of AKI 3D among ICU patients pre-COVID-19 (%) | 8.8% | 8.80% | 6.6 - 11.0% | 1. Melo FAF, Macedo E, Fonseca Bezerra AC, et al. A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Acute Kidney Injury in the Intensive Care Units of Developed and Developing Countries. PLoS One. 2020;15(1):e0226325. |
9 | CKRT capacity | CKRT capacity multiplier | 1.50 capacity multiplier | 1.50 | 1.25 - 1.75 | Estimates based on clinical experience informed by local capacity. |
10 | ||||||
11 | Model outcomes | |||||
12 | Category | Results | ||||
13 | Nationwide CKRT Capacity | 7,032 | ||||
14 | Nationwide CKRT demand at peak resource utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic | 4,985 (4,582 - 6,105) | ||||
15 | Nationwide CKRT machine shortage at peak resource utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic | 1,088 (910 - 1,568) | ||||
16 | Number of states projected to encounter CKRT shortages | 6 | ||||
17 | List of states projected to encounter CKRT shortages | CT, MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, | ||||
18 | Number of states projected to encounter possible CKRT shortages | 8 | ||||
19 | List of states projected to encounter possible CKRT shortages | AZ, CO, LA, NE, NM, RI, SC, WY, |