ABCD
1
Dispensers for Safe WaterKenyaUgandaMalawi
2
Under-5 deaths averted
3
Percent of population that is under 5, 201912.6%13.6%13.7%
4
Annual all-cause mortality in under-5s, DSW counties1.19%1.09%1.34%
5
Relative risk of all-cause mortality0.860.860.86
6
Internal validity adjustment, under-5 mortality0.800.800.80
7
External validity adjustment0.560.571.11
8
Percent reduction in under-5 all-cause mortality, initial estimate6.0%6.1%12.0%
9
Maximum plausible percent reduction in under-5 all-cause mortality5.6%8.4%10.9%
10
Percent reduction in under-5 all-cause mortality, final estimate5.6%6.1%10.9%
11
Annual under-5 deaths averted per 100,000 people covered, adjusted8920
12
Moral value per under-5 death averted108111113
13
Units of value per 100,000 covered90210172263
14
15
Over-5 deaths averted
16
Percent of population that is over 5, 201987.5%86.4%86.3%
17
Annual all-cause mortality in over-5s, 20190.55%0.44%0.54%
18
Relative risk of all-cause mortality0.860.860.86
19
Over-5 mortality scaling factor0.320.890.60
20
Internal validity adjustment, over-5 mortality0.500.500.50
21
External validity adjustment0.560.571.11
22
Plausibility cap adjustment0.931.000.91
23
Annual over-5 deaths averted per 100,000 people covered, adjusted51319
24
Implied reduction in over-5 all-cause mortality, for illustration only1%3%4%
25
Moral value per over-5 death averted68.470.766.1
26
Units of value per 100,000 covered3709391267
27
28
Morbidity
29
Annual YLDs attributed to enteric infections per 100,000, 2019180190219
30
Relative risk reduction for diarrhea episodes 0.810.810.81
31
Internal validity adjustment0.900.900.90
32
External validity adjustment0.490.791.02
33
Implied reduction in morbidity8.6%13.8%17.8%
34
Annual YLDs averted per 100,000 people covered, adjusted152639
35
Moral value per YLD averted2.32.32.3
36
Units of value per 100,000 covered356090
37
38
Development effects
39
Units of value for development effects per treatment-year from seasonal malaria chemoprevention
0.1260.1260.126
40
Development effects of in-line chlorination as a percentage of seasonal malaria chemoprevention
44%44%44%
41
Percent of population that is under 5, 201913%14%14%
42
Percent of population that is 5-14, 201925.4%29.2%28.7%
43
YLD rate attributed to enteric infections in under-5s, 2019317398461
44
YLD rate attributed to enteric infections in 5-14s, 2019125116140
45
Per capita burden of enteric infection morbidity in 5-14s as a percentage of under-5 morbidity
39%29%30%
46
Annual units of value per 100,000 covered1,2501,2281,244
47
Internal validity adjustment0.800.800.80
48
External validity adjustment0.560.571.11
49
Adjusted annual units of value per 100,000 covered5555531,097
50
51
Medical costs averted
52
Baseline annual diarrhea incidence per under-5 child4.03.64.1
53
Morbidity reduction8.6%13.8%17.8%
54
Averted diarrhea cases per under-five child per year0.340.490.74
55
Annual cost of diarrhea illness averted, per under-5$8.15$5.70$8.05
56
Percentage of the population that is under 5, 201912.6%13.6%13.7%
57
Annual cost of diarrhea illness averted, per person served$1.02$0.78$1.10
58
Non-diarrheal illness averted multiplier3.73.73.7
59
Total annual cost of illness averted, per person served$3.83$2.91$4.13
60
Internal validity adjustment for medical costs averted1.01.01.0
61
External validity adjustment for medical costs averted1.11.11.1
62
Adjusted total annual cost of illness averted, per person served$4.21$3.20$4.54
63
Average consumption per capita, national average$1,198$1,169$753
64
Adjustment for lower than average consumption in DSW beneficiaries55.8%53.4%53.0%
65
DSW beneficiary annual consumption per capita, rough estimate$668$624$399
66
Per capita increase in ln(consumption) resulting from intervention0.00630.00510.0113
67
Value assigned to doubling consumption for one person for one year1.01.01.0
68
Value assigned to increasing ln(consumption) by one unit for one person for one year
1.441.441.44
69
Units of value from medical costs averted per person, per year0.00910.00740.0163
70
Units of value per 100,000 covered9067371,632
71
72
Costs
73
74
Annual cost per person served$1.68$1.22$1.86
75
76
Results
77
Units of value per dollar donated0.020.030.03
78
Total units of value per $10,000 donated165272342
79
Units of value per $10,000 donated, GiveDirectly33.533.533.5
80
DSW vs. cash before adjustments4.98.110.2
81
82
Downside adjustments
83
84
Risk of wastage
85
Double treatment0%0%0%
86
Ineffective goods0%0%0%
87
Goods purchased and left in storage until they expire / Cash doesn't reach recipients or is taken back from them inappropriately
0%0%0%
88
Total adjustment for risk of wastage0%0%0%
89
90
Quality of monitoring and evaluation
91
Unrepresentative monitoring results10%10%10%
92
False monitoring results0%0%0%
93
Total adjustment for quality of monitoring and evaluation10%10%10%
94
95
Confidence in funds being used for intended purpose
96
Change of priorities0%0%0%
97
Non-funding bottlenecks0%0%0%
98
Within-org fungibility0%0%0%
99
Total adjustment for confidence in funds being used for intended purpose
0%0%0%
100