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1 | October 2024 presidential preference detailed tables | ||||||||||||||
2 | Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 6, 2024. | Note: Data shown here is among all registered voters. Not all registered voters will turn out to vote in the election. For more detail about how preelection indications of interest and intention are related to turnout, read Chapter 1 of the report, “Most Voters Say Harris Will Concede – and Trump Won’t – If Defeated in the Election.” | Terms of use | This sheet is view only. You can only export this data into a CSV/Excel or other format by downloading. To download these tables, click “File” and then select “Download” to save in your preferred file format. | |||||||||||
3 | Full report: “Most Voters Say Harris Will Concede – and Trump Won’t – If Defeated in the Election” | Privacy policy | |||||||||||||
4 | |||||||||||||||
5 | % of all registered voters who support ... | ||||||||||||||
6 | Trump/ Lean Trump | Harris/ Lean Harris | Kennedy/ Lean Kennedy | Oliver/ Lean Oliver | Stein/ Lean Stein | West/ Lean West | Lean toward none | Margin of error (+/- pct. pts.) | |||||||
7 | All voters | 47 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1.9 | ||||||
8 | |||||||||||||||
9 | Gender | ||||||||||||||
10 | Men | 51 | 43 | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 2.7 | ||||||
11 | Women | 43 | 52 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2.6 | ||||||
12 | |||||||||||||||
13 | Race and ethnicity | ||||||||||||||
14 | White | 55 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 2.4 | ||||||
15 | Black | 14 | 79 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4.8 | ||||||
16 | Hispanic | 38 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.1 | ||||||
17 | Asian** | 30 | 62 | 4 | * | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | ||||||
18 | |||||||||||||||
19 | Age | ||||||||||||||
20 | 18-29 | 34 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 4.9 | ||||||
21 | 30-49 | 45 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 3.4 | ||||||
22 | 50-64 | 52 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3.5 | ||||||
23 | 65+ | 51 | 47 | * | * | * | * | 1 | 3.7 | ||||||
24 | |||||||||||||||
25 | Education | ||||||||||||||
26 | Postgrad | 33 | 62 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 4.5 | ||||||
27 | College grad | 42 | 53 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3.8 | ||||||
28 | Some college | 48 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 3.3 | ||||||
29 | HS or less | 56 | 39 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 2 | 3.6 | ||||||
30 | |||||||||||||||
31 | Education (two-way) | ||||||||||||||
32 | College grad+ | 38 | 57 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 2.9 | ||||||
33 | Some college or less | 52 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2.4 | ||||||
34 | |||||||||||||||
35 | Gender and age (four-way) | ||||||||||||||
36 | 18-29 Men | 39 | 51 | 4 | 3 | 1 | * | 2 | 7.6 | ||||||
37 | 18-29 Women | 30 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6.2 | ||||||
38 | 30-49 Men | 49 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.8 | ||||||
39 | 30-49 Women | 41 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | 4.9 | ||||||
40 | 50-64 Men | 54 | 44 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 4.9 | ||||||
41 | 50-64 Women | 49 | 46 | 2 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 5 | ||||||
42 | 65+ Men | 60 | 38 | 1 | * | * | 0 | 1 | 5.5 | ||||||
43 | 65+ Women | 45 | 53 | * | 0 | 1 | * | 1 | 5 | ||||||
44 | |||||||||||||||
45 | Party | ||||||||||||||
46 | Republican | 94 | 4 | 1 | * | * | 0 | * | 3.5 | ||||||
47 | Democrat | 4 | 94 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 3.1 | ||||||
48 | Independent/Other | 45 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 2 | * | 3 | 3.2 | ||||||
49 | |||||||||||||||
50 | Party/lean | ||||||||||||||
51 | Rep/Lean Rep | 89 | 6 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 2.7 | ||||||
52 | Dem/Lean Dem | 4 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 2.6 | ||||||
53 | |||||||||||||||
54 | Party/lean and ideology | ||||||||||||||
55 | Conservative Rep/Lean Rep | 95 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 0 | 1 | 3.4 | ||||||
56 | Moderate/Liberal Rep/Lean Rep | 76 | 15 | 5 | 2 | * | * | 1 | 4.9 | ||||||
57 | Conservative/Moderate Dem/Lean Dem | 7 | 87 | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 3.7 | ||||||
58 | Liberal Dem/Lean Dem | 2 | 96 | 1 | * | 1 | * | * | 3.6 | ||||||
59 | |||||||||||||||
60 | Religion | ||||||||||||||
61 | Protestant | 58 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 2.8 | ||||||
62 | White evangelical Protestant | 79 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4.6 | ||||||
63 | White nonevangelical Protestant | 56 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5.4 | ||||||
64 | Black Protestant | 13 | 81 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 5.7 | ||||||
65 | Catholic | 52 | 45 | 2 | * | * | * | * | 4.3 | ||||||
66 | White non-Hispanic Catholic | 62 | 36 | 1 | * | * | * | * | 5.5 | ||||||
67 | Hispanic Catholic | 33 | 63 | 3 | * | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.9 | ||||||
68 | Religiously unaffiliated | 26 | 67 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 3.5 | ||||||
69 | Atheist | 12 | 82 | 0 | 1 | 2 | * | 3 | 7.6 | ||||||
70 | Agnostic | 19 | 73 | 3 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 7 | ||||||
71 | Nothing in particular | 34 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4.8 | ||||||
72 | |||||||||||||||
73 | USR (community type) | ||||||||||||||
74 | Urban | 31 | 63 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3.9 | ||||||
75 | Suburban | 44 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2.6 | ||||||
76 | Rural | 64 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 3.8 | ||||||
77 | |||||||||||||||
78 | Age and gender (two-way) | ||||||||||||||
79 | 18-49 Men | 45 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 4.1 | ||||||
80 | 18-49 Women | 37 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 3.8 | ||||||
81 | 50+ Men | 57 | 41 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 3.7 | ||||||
82 | 50+ Women | 47 | 50 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 3.5 | ||||||
83 | |||||||||||||||
84 | Race and age (two-way) | ||||||||||||||
85 | 18-49 White | 48 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3.7 | ||||||
86 | 50+ White | 59 | 39 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 3.1 | ||||||
87 | 18-49 Black | 20 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7.6 | ||||||
88 | 50+ Black | 7 | 88 | * | * | * | 1 | 3 | 6.1 | ||||||
89 | 18-49 Hispanic | 36 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6.7 | ||||||
90 | 50+ Hispanic | 42 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | * | 7.6 | ||||||
91 | |||||||||||||||
92 | Veteran | ||||||||||||||
93 | Yes, self | 61 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 5.8 | ||||||
94 | Not self | 45 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 2 | ||||||
95 | |||||||||||||||
96 | Union membership | ||||||||||||||
97 | Yes | 43 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 5.7 | ||||||
98 | No | 47 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 2 | ||||||
99 | |||||||||||||||
100 | Religious service attendance |