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Africa Jobs Fund — Simple Labour Mobility Cost-Effectiveness Estimate
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WHAT WE FUND
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Number of companies seeded20Labour mobility companies moving workers from Africa
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Probability each company succeeds50%50% reach sustainable scale
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Cost per failed company$200,000Many companies will fail early (at scoping stage), so smaller investment
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Investment per successful company$550,000Investment — repaid in full if company succeeds
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Catalytic credit claimed30%AJF claims 30% credit for the impact of companies it seeds
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WHAT EACH SUCCESSFUL COMPANY ACHIEVES
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Migrants moved per successful company (lifetime)2,000Average per succesful company over ~10-year operating horizon
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Migrant's income in origin country$3,500Average pre-migration income (purchasing power parity)
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Migrant's income in destination country$30,000Average post-migration income (PPP-adjusted). Low-end estimate
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Migrant's family size in origin country4Number of family members back home (who receive remittances)
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Remittance rate (% of destination income)10%Share of earnings sent home
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Remittance PPP multiplier3.0Converts nominal Dollars to PPP for Sub-Saharan Africa
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Future discount rate4%Standard rate used by GiveWell to discount the future
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Working career after migration20Years worked by migrant in destination country
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COST TO AJF
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Successful companies10No. of companies that succeed and reach sustainable scale
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Failed companies10No. of companies that fail and send 0 migrants
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Cost of failures$2,000,000Assume all money lost on the 50% of companies that fail
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Capital deployed to successful companies$5,500,000Assume that interest exactly covers cost of capital and discounting
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Net philanthropic cost$2,000,00075% of investment returned
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INCOME GAIN PER MIGRANT
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Migrant doubled-consumption years (DCYs) per year3.10How many times income doubles: ln(new ÷ old) ÷ ln(2)
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Remittances received at home (PPP-adjusted)$9,00010% of earnings × PPP multiplier = purchasing power at home
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Per family member$2,250Extra PPP income per family member in origin country
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New family consumption per person$5,750Baseline income + remittance share
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Family DCYs per year (all members)2.15Same doubling formula applied to each family member
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Total DCYs per migrant per year (migrant + family)
5.25Total annual income doubled years created per migrant
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Present value factor (40-year career at 4% discount)13.59Converts annual benefit into a single lifetime number
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Lifetime DCYs per migrant (present value)71.3Total lifetime income doubled years created per migrant
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TOTAL IMPACT ACROSS PORTFOLIO
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Total migrants (all successful companies)20,000All migrants sent by all successful companies
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Discounted migrants (time value of money)13,590Migrants arrive over ~20 years; earlier cohorts count more
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AJF credited migrants (30% catalytic credit)4,077AJF takes 30% credit for the work of incubated companies
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Total credited DCYs290,796Total income doubled years that AJF is credited with creating
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Total credited DALYs (IDYs ÷ 2.5)116,318Disability-adjusted life years — standard global health metric
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COST-EFFECTIVENESS
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Cost per income-doubled year (DCY)$6.88Grant subsidy required to double the income of an African for one year
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Cost per DALY averted$17.19Equivalent in 'Disability Adjusted Life Years'
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Multiple of GiveWell (benchmark: $100/DALY)5.8×Above 1 = more cost-effective than GiveWell top charities
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