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WeekDateCohortError TypeCategory Item MitigationReferences
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12/15/23WMistakePresentationWent about 15 minutes overtime
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12/15/23WMistakePresentationInitiated icebreaker in pairs rather than as a group; ~2 students arrived after icebreaker was initiated
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12/15/23WMistakeDiscussionShould've split the group in half for discussion given the average willingness to talk (higher than what I had been used to last semester)We'll split next time if aadit is there and we have more than 5
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12/15/23W, RMistakePresentationEA History slide: Didn't acknoweldge MIRI (berkeley AI research center founded in 2000) and LessWrong (rationality blog founded in 2006) converging into the EA community when the label "effective altruism" was formalized at the end of 2011Will review edited EA History slide before starting week 2 slideshttps://jacyanthis.com/some-early-history-of-effective-altruism

https://www.centreforeffectivealtruism.org/history
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12/15/23WCorrectionPresentationDuring the EA history slide, I said something akin to "Toby Ord was inspired by reading a report called the global burden of disease (GBD)." What I was referring to is actually a report called Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries, Second Edition (DCP2). That's the report that outlined how the best intervention might be ~10,000x the worst one. The type of information that can be found in the GBD report(s) were used in DCP2.

Toby Ord writes about his findings in the popular [among EAs] paper called "The moral imperative towards cost effectiveness." This paper can be found in week 2 of our syllabus.
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/7242

https://www.cgdev.org/publication/moral-imperative-toward-cost-effectiveness-global-health
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12/15/23WCorrectionPresentationI didn't coherently differentiate the significance of GiveWell's (founded in 2007) work to that of Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA, founded in 2002) + the Abdul Latif Jameel poverty action lab (J-PAL, founded in 2003), which are longstanding partners. GiveWell was the pinoneer in charity evaluation for people looking to donate their money; the latter two orgs were the ones that brought RCTs and applied the scientific method to interventions in global poverty (earning some of the main ppl involved the 2019 nobel prize in economics).https://www.povertyactionlab.org/about-us?field_history_year_value_select=20

https://www.poverty-action.org/
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12/15/23W, RMistakeDiscussionDidn't have enough time/guide discussion towards neglectedness question Will review neglectedness in week 2
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12/15/23WMistakeCommunicationI forgot to highlight reasoning behind our communication system; responding to google calendar invites and texting about switching cohorts is primarily so
1. I can start on time because I'll know to wait or not wait for ppl
2. If say only 2 kids or less are gonna attend a session, I'll know to not offer that session so ppl can benefit from properly-sized discussion group
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12/15/23SMistakeCommunicationI solicited advice on EAF's social media and had to backtrack after offering social media chair to the girl who gave advice. Not very democratic.I'll talk about joining exec in greater detail in a later session
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12/15/23SCorrectionDiscussionI said global poverty line was $1.50 a day but it's now been moved to $2.15. I also acknowledged below 100% certainty about how that figure is represented with regards to purchasing power partiy (PPP).

World Bank: PPPs are used to convert national poverty lines as well as the value of households’ income and consumption — the backbones of global poverty measurement — to a common currency across countries. In fall 2022, the World Bank will switch to using the 2017 PPPs for its global poverty numbers. This follows the 2020 release of a new set of PPPs based on prices collected in 2017 by the International Comparison Program. As a result, the international poverty line will be $2.15. This means that everyone living on less than this amount per day will be considered in extreme poverty.

It is important to note, though, that the real value of the international poverty line is virtually unchanged — it is simply expressed in different prices now.
https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/adjustment-global-poverty-lines
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53/22/23WMistakePresentationI only showed the metaculus AI timelines- ones found in the Astral Codex Ten post "OpenAI's "Planning For AGI And Beyond"- but I also should've included the 2022 Expert Survey done by MIRI and Oxford added slides for the next cohort https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/
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53/22/23WCorrectionPresentationI said Metaculus is basically a prediction market but it is slightly different in one key way:
"Metaculus aims to aggregate many people's information, expertise, and predictive power into high-quality forecasts. However, prediction markets generally operate using real or virtual currency, which is used to buy and sell shares in "event occurrence." The idea is that people buy (or sell) shares if they think that the standing prices reflect too low (or high) a probability in that event. Metaculus, in contrast, directly solicits predicted probabilities from its users, then aggregates those probabilities...
Metaculus has several advantages over prediction markets. One is that Metaculus forecasts are scored solely based on accuracy, while prediction markets may be used for other reasons, such as hedging. This means that sometimes prediction markets may be distorted from the true probability by bettors who wish to mitigate their downside risk if an event occurs."
updated slide notes for R cohorthttps://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/
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