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1
Where is the data from?
The expected absentee counts are from files posted by the Secretary of State each morning, or from official SoS press conferences. The results are from the state's Election Night Reporting system.
2
Are these your predictions?
No, it's just a model that helps inform my predictions. If and when I do project the outcome of a race, I will note that I have made a “call” beneath the model's guesses.
3
Why haven't you entered a particular update?
I update it as often as I can, but I occasionally need to take breaks. Also, some updates only change 2-3 votes.
4
Are there any early in-person votes left?
Yes. Gwinnett has to rescan at least a few hundred ballots due to a glitch (I'm told it's a few thousand, but my data suggests it's lower). A few other counties also claim to have early votes left, but I don't think they actually do.
5
Does the model account for provisional ballots?No.
6
Why not?
I don't have enough data about them. There are probably several thousand, including a few thousand in Fulton and several hundred in Cobb. Provisonals tend to be better for Democrats than other Election Day votes, but the Election Day votes were so good for Republicans this year that it is difficult to be sure who will benefit from them.
7
Does the model account for UOCAVA ballots?
It treats them like other absentees – so if they've been accepted already, the model accounts for them, but it doesn't account for the fact that UOCAVA ballots can be accepted if they arrive by Friday.
8
What are UOCAVA ballots?
They're ballots sent to Americans in the military or otherwise out of the country. These ballots are given extra time to arrive. See here for more info. (UOCAVA stands for Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voter Act.)
9
How many UOCAVA ballots are left?
According to the SoS, there are 8,899 that have not been returned; we have no idea how many of those will arrive in time. (This is as of 11/05 at 2:15 p.m. EST)
10
Have any UOCAVA ballots already been counted?
Yes. 17,529 have been accepted by counties already and are included in the online results and my model, as of 11/05 at 2:15 p.m. EST. They're counted as “absentee by mail” just like other ballots that arrive by mail, so there's no way to tell who won them.
11
Won't the UOCAVA ballots boost Trump?
There's no reason to assume they will. Trump isn't all that popular among the military rank-and-file, and some of those ballots are from civilians living outside the country, who I imagine are overwhelmingly opposed to Trump.
12
When will the unofficial count finish?
Most counties will be done or nearly done Thursday, including Clayton. Gwinnett's next update is expected to come after readjudication, which may stretch into the weekend.
13
When will the official count finish?
Counties must certify by November 13. The Secretary of State must certify by November 20. Any recount would be after certification.
14
Why would there be a recount?
If the margin is within 0.5% once the election is certified, the losing candidate can request a recount.
15
Would a recount change the result?
It's very unlikely unless it's within a couple hundred votes, but yes, technically it's always possible.
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