Sail metaphor illustration

	A	B	C	D	E
1	Century	Conditional probability of sail attempt	P(no sail attempt before this)	P(sail attempt this century)	P(fall in this century)
2	1	33.33%	100.00%	33.33%	16.67%
3	2	25.00%	66.67%	16.67%	8.33%
4	3	20.00%	50.00%	10.00%	5.00%
5	4	16.67%	40.00%	6.67%	3.33%
6	5	14.29%	33.33%	4.76%	2.38%
7	6	12.50%	28.57%	3.57%	1.79%
8	7	11.11%	25.00%	2.78%	1.39%
9	8	10.00%	22.22%	2.22%	1.11%
10	9	9.09%	20.00%	1.82%	0.91%
11	10	8.33%	18.18%	1.52%	0.76%
12	11	7.69%	16.67%	1.28%	0.64%
13	12	7.14%	15.38%	1.10%	0.55%
14	13	6.67%	14.29%	0.95%	0.48%
15	14	6.25%	13.33%	0.83%	0.42%
16	15	5.88%	12.50%	0.74%	0.37%
17	16	5.56%	11.76%	0.65%	0.33%
18	17	5.26%	11.11%	0.58%	0.29%
19	18	5.00%	10.53%	0.53%	0.26%
20	19	4.76%	10.00%	0.48%	0.24%
21	20	4.55%	9.52%	0.43%	0.22%
22	21	4.35%	9.09%	0.40%	0.20%
23	22	4.17%	8.70%	0.36%	0.18%
24	23	4.00%	8.33%	0.33%	0.17%
25	24	3.85%	8.00%	0.31%	0.15%
26	25	3.70%	7.69%	0.28%	0.14%
27	26	3.57%	7.41%	0.26%	0.13%
28	27	3.45%	7.14%	0.25%	0.12%
29	28	3.33%	6.90%	0.23%	0.11%
30	29	3.23%	6.67%	0.22%	0.11%
31	30	3.13%	6.45%	0.20%	0.10%
32	31	3.03%	6.25%	0.19%	0.09%
33	32	2.94%	6.06%	0.18%	0.09%
34	33	2.86%	5.88%	0.17%	0.08%
35	34	2.78%	5.71%	0.16%	0.08%
36	35	2.70%	5.56%	0.15%	0.08%
37	36	2.63%	5.41%	0.14%	0.07%
38	37	2.56%	5.26%	0.13%	0.07%
39	38	2.50%	5.13%	0.13%	0.06%
40	39	2.44%	5.00%	0.12%	0.06%
41	40	2.38%	4.88%	0.12%	0.06%
42	41	2.33%	4.76%	0.11%	0.06%
43	42	2.27%	4.65%	0.11%	0.05%
44	43	2.22%	4.55%	0.10%	0.05%
45	44	2.17%	4.44%	0.10%	0.05%
46	45	2.13%	4.35%	0.09%	0.05%
47	46	2.08%	4.26%	0.09%	0.04%
48	47	2.04%	4.17%	0.09%	0.04%
49	48	2.00%	4.08%	0.08%	0.04%
50	49	1.96%	4.00%	0.08%	0.04%
51	50	1.92%	3.92%	0.08%	0.04%
52	51	1.89%	3.85%	0.07%	0.04%
53	52	1.85%	3.77%	0.07%	0.03%
54	53	1.82%	3.70%	0.07%	0.03%
55	54	1.79%	3.64%	0.06%	0.03%
56	55	1.75%	3.57%	0.06%	0.03%
57	56	1.72%	3.51%	0.06%	0.03%
58	57	1.69%	3.45%	0.06%	0.03%
59	58	1.67%	3.39%	0.06%	0.03%
60	59	1.64%	3.33%	0.05%	0.03%
61	60	1.61%	3.28%	0.05%	0.03%
62	61	1.59%	3.23%	0.05%	0.03%
63	62	1.56%	3.17%	0.05%	0.02%
64	63	1.54%	3.13%	0.05%	0.02%
65	64	1.52%	3.08%	0.05%	0.02%
66	65	1.49%	3.03%	0.05%	0.02%
67	66	1.47%	2.99%	0.04%	0.02%
68	67	1.45%	2.94%	0.04%	0.02%
69	68	1.43%	2.90%	0.04%	0.02%
70	69	1.41%	2.86%	0.04%	0.02%
71	70	1.39%	2.82%	0.04%	0.02%
72	71	1.37%	2.78%	0.04%	0.02%
73	72	1.35%	2.74%	0.04%	0.02%
74	73	1.33%	2.70%	0.04%	0.02%
75	74	1.32%	2.67%	0.04%	0.02%
76	75	1.30%	2.63%	0.03%	0.02%
77	76	1.28%	2.60%	0.03%	0.02%
78	77	1.27%	2.56%	0.03%	0.02%
79	78	1.25%	2.53%	0.03%	0.02%
80	79	1.23%	2.50%	0.03%	0.02%
81	80	1.22%	2.47%	0.03%	0.02%
82	81	1.20%	2.44%	0.03%	0.01%
83	82	1.19%	2.41%	0.03%	0.01%
84	83	1.18%	2.38%	0.03%	0.01%
85	84	1.16%	2.35%	0.03%	0.01%
86	85	1.15%	2.33%	0.03%	0.01%
87	86	1.14%	2.30%	0.03%	0.01%
88	87	1.12%	2.27%	0.03%	0.01%
89	88	1.11%	2.25%	0.02%	0.01%
90	89	1.10%	2.22%	0.02%	0.01%
91	90	1.09%	2.20%	0.02%	0.01%
92	91	1.08%	2.17%	0.02%	0.01%
93	92	1.06%	2.15%	0.02%	0.01%
94	93	1.05%	2.13%	0.02%	0.01%
95	94	1.04%	2.11%	0.02%	0.01%
96	95	1.03%	2.08%	0.02%	0.01%
97	96	1.02%	2.06%	0.02%	0.01%
98	97	1.01%	2.04%	0.02%	0.01%
99	98	1.00%	2.02%	0.02%	0.01%
100	99	0.99%	2.00%	0.02%	0.01%