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Per-year analysis
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March - December 20202021 (Jan - December)2022 (Jan - December)2023 (Jan - December)Overall (March 2020 - Dec 2023)SourceNotes
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Number of infants enrolled
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Number of infants enrolled in New Incentives program58,178171,910630,1191,518,5112,378,718New Incentives monitoring results [January 2024]
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Estimate of repeat enrollments
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Expected scarring rate from BCG vaccination90%90%90%90%90%BCG vaccines: WHO position paper – February 2018
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% of infants with only one BCG scar94%98%99%100%99%New Incentives monitoring results [January 2024]
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% of infants with two or more BCG scars0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.03%New Incentives monitoring results [January 2024]
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Difference between expected scarring rate and actual scarring rate4%8%9%10%9.19%Calculation
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Repeat enrollments as a % of total enrollments, best guess based on BCG scar data5%9%10%10.72%10.25%Calculation
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Total infants enrolled, adjusted for repeat enrollments55,330156,685567,2681,355,7102,134,992Calculation
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Costs
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Total costs to New Incentives$2,152,757$3,634,604$11,355,940$23,399,097$40,542,397Calculation
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New Incentives' cost per enrolled infant (not adjusted for repeat enrollments)$37.00$21.14$18.02$15.41$17.04Calculation
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New Incentives' cost per enrolled infant (adjusted for repeat enrollments)$38.91$23.20$20.02$17.26$18.99Calculation
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Government cost per (counterfactual) full immunization$34.29$34.29$34.29$34.29$34.29Calculation
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Gavi cost per (counterfactual) full immunization$28.64$28.64$28.64$28.64$28.64Calculation
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