CBB Season 2024 @matthewwinick

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G
1	Time	AWAY	HOME	Spr.	O/U	Notes	Key Stat
2	4:30	Georgia*	Oregon	-4	139	Georgia is devoid of offensive talent and Oregon is giant, which gives me an under lean. Little hesistant to bet Oregon with so many froshes playing huge roles.	Since 2021 - Oregon 3-8 ATS neutral with -9.5 margin, 2-8 away fav with -4.4 margin
3	6:30	Tennessee Tech	Tennessee	-29	134	A common theme - unless I see a crazy number or a major discrepancy somewhere, I'll probably leave these giant spreads alone.	Tennessee was 9-1 ATS against teams ranked below 110. Only non-cover was opening night vs. Tenn Tech.
4	6:30	Samford	Purdue	-15	146	Torn here - on one hand Edey should destroy a MM team, on the other, Samford has the same build (and way better) as FDU. A real challenge. I think if I bet 'Dogs I'll lose.	Samford has only ever played 1 top-50 KP team in Bucky-Ball (2-pt non-cover vs. San Francisco)
5	6:30	Northern Arizona	UConn	-27	142	See: Tennessee game. Especially with so many freshmen in the lineup for UConn.	NAU covered all three P6 games last year, all 3 made the tourney. Margin was combined +5 though.
6	7:00	Maine	Charlotte	-13	O140	We may be a little too ahead of ourselves here with Maine. Still lots of questions with shooting and the frontcourt. Charlotte's wings and bigs are a stratosphere better.	Maine was No. 5 in STL% last year. None of CHA's starters had a 20+ TO%. CHA covered by 20.5 against No. 3 STL% team last year (UMES)
7	7:00	Niagara	Notre Dame	-10	U125	ND has laughable talent, and Niagara is one of the slowest teams in the country. I. bet ND will be too. This should be a bottom-5 total in the country on Day 1.	Shrews is 3-7 as a HC as a double-digit fav. Av. margin of -4.5
8	7:00	Princeton*	Rutgers	-8	U133	Princeton may be a bit overvalued aftrer S16 with 3 starters gone and a LOT of freshmen on the bench. Much to ask against a fiesty Rutgers defense with Omoruyi. Lean RU, under	Projected Princeton starters last year - 460 3PA vs. 329 2PA. Rutgers has been top-75 in 3PT-D in 5 of Pickiell's 7 seasons.
9	7:00	Holy Cross	Siena	-5	135	I know my rankings have Siena too low, but that's in large part due to the 1 million questions on the roster. They will still be way more skilled than Holy Cross, and way bigger too. Lean under.	Siena has 2 points coming back from its 7-point road win @ Holy Cross last year. HC has 43 points, but Gerrale Gates had all the other 25.
10	7:00	Radford	North Carolina	-17	146	Radford is the definition of fiesty, but also quite small, which could pose an issue against a HM team like UNC. Highlanders came within 10 of all three HMs last season.	Radford has been bottom-50 in height the last two seasons and may rank lowest this year. UNC has been top-31 both years and may have its biggest team.
11	7:00	Detroit	Toledo	-17	155	Detroit seems to be a mess personnel-wise post-Davis. Toledo will struggle against bigger teams and those that can punish lack of depth. UDM is not that team, Toledo will look good here.	Over last 3 seasons, Toledo is 17-8 ATS, 14-11 O/U against sub-300 defenses. UDM is 348 to begin year, bottom-300 in every Mike Davis year.
12	7:00	Longwood	St. Bonaventure	-14	133	My guess is Longwood plays big and slow this year with less talent, which may lend them slightly better to better teams, where they usually struggle. Road at SBU is a daunting task, though.	SBU is 35-20 over the last 5 seasons as a home fav. Even 7-4 last year despite all the turnover, includng 5-2 in non-con including first 5.
13	7:00	UMBC	Louisville	-12	144	This may be a hot take, but this is the best game to bet Louisville all season. UMBC is small and won't turn Cards over. If they can't take control here... fire Payne into the sun.	Louisville ATS vs. sub-300 defenses last year: 0-0. UMBC is projected 312 and has been sub-300 both years under Ferry. Louisville ATS vs. sub-300 height last year - 0-1.
14	7:00	Monmouth	George Mason	-19	137	I have GMU a bit higher, and Monmouth way lower than KP. Adding King Rice's kid and a Tulsa reserve to one of the worst teams in CBB last year does not move the needle.	Monmouth ATS vs. top-200 offenses last year - 3-12 by av. margin of 9 points. KP has GMU just below 200, fwiw.
15	7:00	Chicago State	Bowling Green	-5	149	KP is far too low on Chicago State, though they're one of the hardest teams to peg. I like what Bowling Green has done, largely on O, where I think they'll be very good. Lean dog, over.	Outside of a pointles Gonzaga game, Chicago St went 5-0 against top-75 pace teams with 10.8 margin. Simon will have his group in the top-50 this year.
16	7:00	Central Conn	Rhode Island	-13	133	No reason to expect URI to be able to score efficiently or CCSU to be a better defensive team. No reason to bet this game, really.	URI was 2-5 ATS at home in the non-con. New PG Luis Kortright was game MVP for Quinnipiac when they beat URI at URI last season.
17	7:00	SIU Edwardsville	Dayton	-20	134	DaRon Holmes should go nuclear in this matchup against an SIUE tam that lost both its bigs. Ray'Sean Taylor probably won't play, which won't be factored into all numbers. Lean fav/under	Dayton's D averaged allowing 0.837 points per poss in their 7 non-con home games. They went 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U in those games.
18	7:00	Tarleton State	Virginia	-17	122	Tarleton loses a lot of its key backourt pieces, which should especially be a problem trying to set up in the packline. Virginia has more offensive talent than in recent seasons, but bigs are a ?	Last year, Virginia allowed 0.71 PPP against 3 sub-300 EFG% teams (Tarleton has been so the last 2 seasons). Yet, UVa only went 1-2 ATS in those games.
19	7:00	New Hampshire	Syracuse	-27	145	One of my best bets of the opening night. Syracuse is way underranked in KP, and the complete stylistic shift will be hard to account for in rankings. They should run over NH.	The last time Syracuse didn't beat a sub-250 team at home by 15+ was in 2017, totalling a 13-game streak.
20	7:00	Iona	Charleston	-11	150	Charleston's style of play can run over bad teams and Iona certainly wouldn't qualify as good in my eyes, especially as a team of parts playing its first game.	Pat Kelsey only has one loss at home in the non-con in his 2 years at CofC... vs. natty UNC. 9-5 ATS in those games. Started 7-1 O/U, last 6 have all gone Under.
21	7:00	Columbia	Providence	-23	144	Not dying to take this one with the debut of the Kim English era against a Columbia team that is banking on internal development from an awful squad last year.	Columbia scored 0.47!!! and 0.90 PPP against 2 HM teams last year... 2nd was Providence, who Columbia lost to by 14 on a 22.5-point line.
22	7:00	USC Upstate	South Carolina	-16	U129	USCU lost its best scorer and was already leaning on the defensive end. SC plays a slow pace and also lost its top scorer. This game had 59 poss last year, and flew under by 18.5. Love under.	SC only scored 70+ points in 2 of 7 non-con home games, all against MM except 1. The 2 70+ were by far the two worst D teams they played all year (355 and 362.)
23	7:00	Oakland	Ohio State	-25	147	Oakland's outcome will be heavily dependent on some D2 guys, but on paper this squad is worse than an awful squad last year. If the D is as bad... OSU should drop 100 points here.	Oakland allowed a 61.46 EFG% av. to the 5 top-100 KP teams they faced last year. No O has put up that mark season-wide in KP history. Only 2 of those 5 teams had OE over 60.
24	7:00	Lafayette	Saint Joseph's	-18	136	SJU is a "I'll believe it when I see it" when it comes to actualy being good under Lange. Lafayette has 0 offensive talent but will do its absolute best to slow the pace here. SJU will probably oblige.	Last year's matchup had 27 total made threes on over 40% clip, a pace faster than Lafayette's average on the season, and still had just 122 points. SJU won by 4.
25	7:00	UMES	Temple	-18	133	This Temple team shouldn't really have an issue against the UMES pressure, but there's a lot of questions with this new regime. Probably a leave.	UMES stunned Temple last year, but Temple has just 19 points returning from that game, while UMES has just 13.
26	7:00	The Citadel	NC State	-23	145	Citadel's starting 5 actually has some ability, but they're extremely shallow, which should be overwhelming against Keatts' lengthy rotation.	Last season for NC State - 6 non-con games over 70 poss - 4-0-2 with 11.5 margin. In 5 non-con games 70 or less - 2-3 with 1.6 margin. Citadel 67.1 av. tempo last season.
27	7:00	Delaware State	Penn State	-28	141	I think KP is way too high on Delaware State's continuity, and way too low on Penn State's incoming system. I would look to back the favs here, most certainly under 20.	DSU's 3 non-con games vs. top-100 opponent and top-300 pace - 0-3 ATS. DSU's 2 non-con games vs. top-100 and bottom-60 pace - 2-0 ATS, 20.5 margin! Rhodes never been lower than 142 in pace since Yr. 1 at Rice.
28	7:00	VMI	Richmond	-23	140	It's tough for a computer to model just how bad VMI will be, especially to start the season. 0 size, 0 experience. Easy fade to start the season, and I'm high on Richmond overall. Maybe back fav.	Stats tell different story - VMI's freshman-laden team last year went 7-3 ATS in non-con, and 9-6 as a road dog. So perhaps leave unless VMI gets money, which I highly doubt.
29	7:00	NJIT	Miami FL	-28	145	This may be too complex a handicap. NJIT is a completely new roster/system, completely unproven. Was solid in exhibition vs. SHU. Miami is awesome, but not deep. Their bench will play lots.	Miami didn't cover any of its 5 non-con games vs. teams ranked below 120 in KP last year. And that's also considering the team was 20+ spots below their final KP ranking at the time.
30	7:00	Queens	Marshall	-8	155	This game was fantastic last year, but both teams lose a lot of their scoring. I would probably leave alone across the board.	Despite both teams being top 50 pace, this game still only had 73 possessions last year despite high score. 22 total threes were hit, 10 of those are now gone.
31	7:00	NC A&T	Pittsburgh	-26	140	Not a huge fan of this Pitt team, but there's no denying the sheer lack of experience and proven talent on this NCAT team. I expect Pitt to get hammered, so will probably leave.	Pitt was 5-1 ATS against MM teams last year, with the one loss coming by 1-pt ATS. But - none of those games were won by 26+, the line that both KP and I set.
32	7:00	Missouri State	West Virginia	-7	135	Missouri St feels like a "pieces" team that doesn't really fit. I expect a good homecourt for WVU that could see them coast. But also who's playing for WVU?	MSU only allowed 66+ points one time in non-con last year, @ ORU. Different teams, but WVU didn't cover a non-con game scoring less than 76 last season.
33	7:00	Brown	Colgate	-8	149	Brown's size could cause at least some issues, but I don't see it causing havoc. Will be a clean game with few offensive boards and TOs.	Brown forced the highest TO% of any Colgate game last season. Brown also went 2-11 O/U with an 11.0 margin in non-con games last season, with the Brown/Colgate game going under by 4 pts.
34	7:00	North Dakota St	W. Michigan	4+	142	WMU likes to grab O-boards but NDSU is excellent at preventing. That + no turnovers for fast breaks has me think maybe under. And NDSU ATS if it's a possession or less.	WMU went 2-7 ATS last season when having OR% under 30%, NDSU was No. 8 in OR% defense and allowed the 30% mark to be hit just seven times all season. Have been top-21 in OR% last 4 seasons.
35	7:00	Cleveland St	Duquesne	-12	O149	Duquesne's size should be a real problem for CSU, but I'm not sure they can completely pull away in this matchup. Really hope people see CSU's pace last year and pound under.	CSU and Duquesne were combined 10-4 O/U vs. top-80 OR% teams. Both were in top-35 in OR% last season, and bottom-20 in allowing OR%. Will be lots of second chances.
36	7:00	Hampton	Howard	-9	149	These teams are both wayyyyy more talented than their projections this year, but whether Hampton can produce, or Howard can withstand Hawkins loss, is yet to be seen. Likely pass.	Howard went 5-9 O/U in non-con, including all five of their non-con victories going under.
37	7:00	McNeese State	VCU	-12	145	Let me see who even plays for both of these teams before I go out of my way to bet them. No thanks.	With two new coaches, two new systems, and suspensions to consider, no stat really applies here.
38	7:00	Winthrop	Clemson	-13	O151	Clemson has tons of offensive talent and no defense, Winthrop was horrific on D last season with no interior presence. Should be super, super high scoring. That also may mean late blowout.	Winthrop allowed 90.3 PPG against 3 HM teams last year... all 3 went over by av. of 14.7. None of those teams even hit 70% of their FTs.
39	7:00	Delaware	Bucknell	6+	143	I suppose you could take an average MM team on the road as a multi-possession fav. I personally do not want to do that.	Bucknell is 6-2 outright at home in non-con the last two years, with one loss coming in OT.
40	7:30	Manhattan	Bryant	-13	144	I don't want to go anywhere near this game with the whole Bryant situation, even though Manhattan should be an early-season fade.	Bryant has 61 points back from their 104-97 OT win over Manhattan last year. Manhattan has 9 points back.
41	7:30	Saint Peter's	Seton Hall	-22	127	Shaheen Holloway obliterated his old school last year, and there's no reason to expect that not to happen again. But SHU scoring in bunches is not their strong suit.	SHU had nearly double the FT makes as SPU had field goal makes in last year's matchup. No SHU player scored more than 13, or played more than 24 minutes. SHU was No. 17 in FTA/FGA last year, SPU was last in FTA/FGA D
42	7:30	Cornell	Lehigh	9+	160	Cornell should kill a Lehigh team that is built to play big with speed and transition. Won by 32 in this matchup at home last year. Cornell was solid in the road non-con last season.	To bump off that last point, Cornell was 4-2 ATS on the road in non-con last year, including covering by 12 as a 6-pt fav @ Monmouth.
43	7:30	American	Villanova	-25	O145	I emplore you to take the over here. American was one of the slowest teams in the nation last year, but will "play with much more pace," per coach. Villanova's size will destroy AU's backcourt.	All 6 games that American played last year that topped 65 poss in regulation went over.
44	7:30	Georgia State	Belmont	-4	150	One of the closest team matchups on opening night. My guess is the public likes Belmont, but that's probably a hold for me if it's the case.	GSU was an awful 2-13-2 ATS as an underdog and 1-9-1 ATS on the road last season.
45	7:30	Towson	Colorado	-15	140	Towson's scoring prowess is a major question mark, which may be a challenge against an offense-first Colorado team. But also a Colorado team that's overhyped.	Towson brings back 25 made threes from last season. Nendah Tarke is the only newcomer that hit a 3 at the DI level last season.
46	7:30	Lipscomb	Wichita State	-12	O152	Don't see the appeal in Lipscomb, especially defensively. WSU has tons of offensive talent and a great O coach. I'd probably go their way + over.	Paul Mills finished with a better OE in every season at Summit ORU than what he's projected at Wichita this season.
47	7:30	Wagner	Fordham	-11	126	Wagner definitely has the size and athleticism to bother Fordham, who doesn't necessarily have the offensive firepower to pull away.	Fordham went 7-1 ATS against teams below 250 in D FTA/FGA. Wagner was third-last in the country in that stat last year. Fordham outscored Wagner by 12 at the line in their 13-point win last year.
48	7:30	Merrimack	Vermont	-18	128	Just a horrible matchup for Merrimack, as evidenced by a 23-point home loss to VT last year. VT's ability to control the ball is killer for a team that needs TOs. VT played without top TOrate guy.	Vermont was one of 4 teams to post TO% under 20 vs. Merrimack. Merrimack went 0-4 ATS in those games with 10.9 margin. Vermont only topped 20% TO% 6 times last year, and only once at home.
49	7:30	Fairleigh Dick	Buffalo	Ev	149	Though my rankings actually make FDU a slight fav here, it's pretty impossible to properly slot Buffalo with all the players + coaching changes. So I'll probably go against my # and leave.	Despite a bottom-15 defense, FDU games only went 19-15-1 to the Over last season. Despite having the No. 12 pace, Buffalo games only went 16-14 to the Over.
50	7:30	Georgia Southern	Georgia Tech	-13	138	There's just no way Georgia Tech is as bad as ranked on KP. Stoudamire had Pacific at this level in his last two years. GaSo's guards are very inefficient, as well.	Carlos Curry is the only player on GaSo's roster to have ever registered a 100+ ORt at the DI level with a 15% team shot %. He was at 15.2% last year.
51	8:00	Miami OH	Evansville	-1	144	Let's be real - both these teams stink. But I have them rated nearly evenly in my rankings, and if Miami OH gets road love for whatever reason, I may have to take Evansville.	Evansville scored over 1.00 PPP twice!!!! last season. Once was against Miami OH. Despite those figures, Evansville games went 20-12 O/U. The Miami OH game went over by 18.5.
52	8:00	Alcorn State	Arkansas	-24	145	Alcorn's style of havoc defense and free throw shooting has been great against even above-average opponents, but has continiously failed against the big boys.	Alcorn was 0-3 ATS against top-100 KP opponents in the regular season last year, with a 17-pt margin.
53	8:00	Marist	Army	2+	132	Not really dying to touch a bad Army team at home against a bad Marist team.	Army has two players returning that played 35%+ of minutes last year, and ovbviously no transfers. Marist has five. Both lose all-conference players, though.
54	8:00	Western Illinois	UTSA	-10	139	I think my rating on WIU may be too low, and UTSA's may be too high simply based off the conference they're in. I'll probably sit this out and assess.	Not a single member of UTSA's roster shot 50% from 2-point range in their most recent college season. If WIU D scheme is similar under Jeter's assistant, they were No. 9 in pts allowed from 2 last season.
55	8:00	Navy	Campbell	-6	U128	Two proven systems and coaches with completely unproven rosters, outside of Campbell's Anthony Dell'Orso.	Campbell had 3 guys put up 2.5%+ BLK% and/or 2.5%+ stl%. All are gone. Navy has only two guys returning who played 15%+ of mins. Their starting backcourt now, who went 19-78 from deep last season (24.3%)
56	8:00	Fairfield	Boston College	-8	132	Probably worth avoiding given the recent changes in the Fairfield program + not knowing if Yetna is healthy. BC typically sucks in these games, but I'd rather not.	BC went 0-6 ATS as a home fav in non-con last season, enough said.
57	8:00	FIU	UCF	-9	137	I can see UCF's new-ish backcourt really struggle with FIU's pressure, and the team also has size. Plus the local rivalry, and I would expect this to stay within single digits.	FIU was 0-3 ATS on the road in non-con last season, including losing by 12 to a Howard team that was 3rd-last in TO% rate.
58	8:00	Southern Indiana	Saint Louis	-15	150	It's crazy to say that bottom-30 USI has a better big man rotation than SLU, but they do. USI may out-rebound SLU in this one. I'll keep an eye on the # here.	USI covered all four games against top-200 KP teams in their inaugural season. They also won the rebound battle on average across the four games. Caveat? None of those teams were above No. 246 in OR%.
59	8:00	Boston U	Northeastern	-8	130	What a fall for these two programs in the last couple of years, really surprising given quality coaches. I think NE is set for a rise this year, while BU may be at rock bottom.	BU has 59 career DI threes on the entire roster in 10 total college seasons amongst the players. NE has 102 from last year alone, + 28 more from DI transfers.
60	8:00	Texas A&M Comm	Texas A&M	-24	138	TAMUC program is going through a rough time with coach's personal tragedy, I wonder if he's there. Outside of that, this team is very scrappy, and I could maybe see this within 20.	TAMUC has only played 1 top-100 KP team... No. 5 Texas, they covered +29 by 4 pts.
61	8:00	Texas State	Little Rock	4+	U137	My guess is Texas St will play its style of game against an UALR team that added talent, but has still been a complete pushover lately. Would consider under and TxSt up to two possessions.	TxSt went 3-7 O/U against teams ranked below 260 in KP last season, being able to control the pace in all of them (not even any of the Overs above 66 poss.)
62	8:00	Binghamton	Northwestern	-20	131	I'm so out on Northwestern having repeat success this season, largely offensively, and Torrence is a HM body to guard Buie. That all makes me lean a pretty serious way to the under.	NW went 2-9 O/U in non-con last season, with a 12.4-pt margin, insanity.
63	8:00	Loyola MD	Florida	-23	140	While I do appreciate Loyola MD seemingly finally having a healthy frontcourt, I also don't think they have the offensive firepower to keep up with Florida. Would like this in the low-20s.	Florida went 4-1 ATS last season with spreads larger than 15 points, with that 1 loss coming to Kennesaw... which would not have been 15+ points at season's end. Av. margin was still 6.5 in those games.
64	8:00	Jackson State	Memphis	-22	151	Ruffin's addition at JSU may actually have them overrated. Memphis is way, way more talented, deeper, and bigger. New but veteran squad, so I don't really see early struggles.	Some reason for pause - Jackson State actually went 3-1 ATS in spreads larger than 20 points last season.
65	8:00	Central Michigan	Oklahoma	-24	136	CMU is really, really not good, but I'm not sure this Oklahoma team has the burst to obliterate bad teams. Probably worth leaving within the shuffle.	Oklahoma went 1-3 ATS in 15+ point spreads, including an outright loss to Sam Houston, and an 8-point win at UAPB.
66	8:00	Elon	Wake Forest	-27	144	On the flip side, Wake probably does have the burst needed to obliterate bad teams, and Elon is nearly as bad as it gets.	Wake's averag poss total in Steve Forbes' 8 non-con games vs. teams ranked below 250 - 76, well over their average in each season. More possessions - more chance of blowout
67	8:00	Robert Morris	Xavier	-19	142	Definitely don't hate what RMU is putting together, at least with its starters. Xavier's big man injuries seem like killers, and I wonder how much lower their floor is. Probably leave.	With Freemantle and Hunter's injuries, Xavier will now be replacing all five starters from last year.
68	8:00	Bethune Cookman	Minnesota	-20	133	I'm not going to sit here and tell you that Minnesota is good, but also Bethune Cookman has a shot to be real awful and has 0 depth. The under has some potential here.	All seven of Minnesota's non-con home games went under last season. Including against the 252, 290, and 356 defenses. BCU averaged 0.72 PPP in their 3 matchups vs. P6 teams last year.
69	8:00	Bradley	UAB	-6	143	UAB has way more talent than Bradley and is at home, but I still wouldn't really want to take this over two possessions.	Bradley went 0-5 ATS last season in away/neutral non-con games. Sure, Rienk Mast missed three of those games... but he's going to miss them all now.
70	8:00	NC Central	Kansas	-29	140	I'm a little bit higher on NCCU than KP, but nowhere near enough to consider taking them here.	Interesting stat: Kansas is going to win this game.
71	8:00	Louisiana Monroe	Houston	-28	134	Houston is known for destroying bad teams, ULM is a very bad team. Enough to at least consider this spread.	Houston went 8-1 ATS against teams rated higher than 190 in KP last season, with some spread wins of 23, 21, 19, and 10. ULM went 1-5 ATS in non-con against teams in KP's top-200 last season, only 2 top-35 teams in that group.
72	8:00	Arkansas PB	Missouri	-25	150	Both teams are guard-heavy with an emphasis on transition scoring. That should indicate a pretty high score.	Missouri went 4-8 O/U in non-con last season, and importantly had every game against MM teams reach at least 70 possessions. UAPB's 3 non-con games vs. top-100 pace teams averaged 75.6 possessions.
73	8:00	Stonehill	G. Washington	-12	145	Can't really recommend betting this one with so much uncertainty around GW's newcomers. Lot of boom or bust there.	Stonehill's first five games last season - all 72+ poss, 4-1 O/U. Last 25 games - 5 games 72+ poss, 4-21 O/U. What in the world.
74	8:00	Alabama St	Mississippi	-22	135	Another one I'm not dying to take with Beard new system and lots of waiver questions, though it seems like they'll all be denied.	Alabama State went 5-6 ATS in road non-con games... and 4-7 O/U. Not much to take away from that.
75	8:00	Eastern Illinois	Illinois	-28	140	No one can forget the absurd result of EIU going into Iowa and beating the Hawkeyes outright last season. But Illinois beat them by 30. Both teams are a bit better than last year, FWIW.	Illinois brings back 74 of its 87 points scored in this game last year. Illinois only failed to cover 2 non-con games vs. MM teams... that EIU game was one, with the spread at 31.5.
76	8:00	Lindenwood	Nebraska	-25	144	Nebraska may be a sleeping giant, honestly. There are some real awesome offensive pieces here, and though defense could be a real problem, it won't be against Lindenwood.	Nebraska O/U with Keisei Tominaga coming off the bench - 2-15-1. Nebraska O/U with Tominaga starting - 12-2. You cannot make this stuff up. Tominaga will be a starter and may lead Nebraska in minutes.
77	8:00	Oral Roberts	UT Arlington	2+	O152	Probably one I'll leave, I don't think fading new/old ORU is the right idea, but UTA is certainly talented. Just a lot of question marks on both teams. Maybe the over.	UTA kept 3 guys in their rotation from last year - their leading 2-pt scorer, and two of their three best 3-pt shooters, and brought in elite O PG Phillip Russell. "“We want to play fast,” from the coach.
78	8:00	Coppin State	Virginia Tech	-30	142	VTech isn't really a team with enough pace to destroy bad teams, but if there were a team they could do that to, it would be this dreadful Coppin team at the start of a rebuild.	Coppin State's entire roster had 275 points at the DI level last season. On the flip side, VTech went just 1-2 ATS vs. teams below 300 last season.
79	8:00	Green Bay	Iowa State	-28	130	Iowa State may be the worst matchup possible for a new team with a new coach and new system. That defense is unreal, and should be again with Biliew's length. Under seems solid.	In ISU's 6 games against sub-150 offenses last season: 0.698 PPP allowed. Those games went 1-5 O/U. Covered all 3 games vs. sub-250 offenses by 17-pt margin av. GB had 4th-worst O last season... but we'll see with new regime.
80	8:00	Incarnate Word	Texas	-31	140	UIW should be better than last year, but are ranked 15 spots lower in KP. That will be useful one day, but probably not against Texas. A leave for me.	It was two years ago, but the last time UIW played Texas, it scored 33 points and lost by 45.
81	8:00	Miss. Valley State	LSU	-30	135	Not really going to waste my breath on this one. You're not betting MVSU and LSU is an entirely new roster.	MVSU went 2-2 ATS vs. P6 teams last year. Cool.
82	8:00	Morehead St	Alabama	-24	145	I'm not super high on Alabama this year because of the dependancy on MM talent, but that shouldn't be a problem... against a MM team. Bama should win with ease.	During the last three seasons of Morehead actually being quite good, they've gone 2-9-1 against top-100 KP teams in non-con. That was all with Johni Broome or Mark Freeman.
83	8:00	Arkansas State	Wisconsin	-10	134	I don't hate Wisconsin this year, but I also think Arkansas State is one of the most underrated teams in KP right now, and the perfect candidate to bet a close game against a slow team.	Hard to find a stat for a brand new Arkansas State team - but Wisconsin was just 1-5 ATS against teams ranked below 100 in KP last season, partially due to a slow pace. That 1 ATS loss was 69 poss, their fastest game of the season.
84	8:00	New Mexico St	Kentucky	-17	O146	With all the big man injuries for Kentucky, my guess is that Cal will speed things up. NMSU is probably better off if that's the case. Only play here could be the over.	Kentucky's 5 non-con MM games against top-half pace teams - 74.4 poss per game. The other 6 non-con, non-OT games - 63.3 poss per game. My guess is Hooten speeds things up... we'll see.
85	8:00	Central Arkansas	Tulsa	-13	150	Think Tulsa probably has to be an auto-bet here. No team has a bigger discrepancy in my rankings vs. KP than Tulsa. I'd get on this early if books copy KP, as most will hammer Tulsa too.	Eric Konkol teams ATS in the last 3 seasons with Cobe Williams starting: 34-21-1. Eric Konkol teams ATS in the last 3 seasons without Cobe Williams starting: 7-27-2.
86	8:00	Eastern Michigan	Butler	-19	139	EMU just lost an NBA player... I don't care how discombobulated things were... they won't be better than last year. (KP has them 3 spots higher. Don't wanna bet Butler but we'll see.	Butler went 5-1 ATS at home in non-con last season, with an av. margin of 10.3 points. Much better than what I expected to find.
87	8:30	No. Illinois	Marquette	-22	O152	NIU has the athletes to hang with Marquette for a few minutes, but this has been a team that has been unable to execute for quite some time now, and no one better than Marquette at it	Over seems solid here - NIU went 6-4 O/U with av. pace of 71.6 in non-con, Marquette went 4-1 O/U with av. pace of 78!!!! in non-con games vs. MM teams.
88	8:30	Youngstown St	Louisiana	-7	150	Really interesting variations of roster construction here. ULL banking on internal growth from a great team losing its best player, YSU choosing to rebuild via portal, which worked last year.	I think many are just assuming YSU's transfer strategy will work for the 2nd year in a row. Stat - all 5 of starters last year had at least 1 100+ ORt season (McBride 2, Rush/Cohill 1, Green/Nelson 4!!). This year - Rush/Burns only ones with more than 1.
89	8:30	No. Kentucky	Middle Tenn	-9	133	On a pure rating scale, I have MTSU way higher than NKU, but I can also see the funky zone mess up a Blue Raiders squad that doesn't really like to shoot from deep.	You'd think that zone messes up teams that don't know it - but NKU was 2-8 ATS in non-con, and 13-10 in conf. The year prior, 1-6 vs. 15-8.
90	8:30	James Madison	Michigan State	-12	O150	JMU is really, really good. Capable of giving the Spartans a scare, but also scoring points. I expect a ton of scoring here.	JMU was a juggernaut in non-con last year, going 7-3 ATS with +6.5 margin, and 6-4 O/U +5.5 margin. Every game but Virginia 71+ poss. Michigan went 7-5 to the Over vs. top-100 pace teams.
91	9:00	Nicholls	Tulane	-18	152	I'm personally a fair bit higher on Nicholls than anyone I've seen, so I'd rather hold out a game to see who's in the rotation/how the new system works. Maybe over?	Tulane's av. possessions in non-con vs. top-150 pace teams - 74 per game. 2-2 O/U. Nicholls would have been 2nd-fastest team Tulane played in non-con. KP has Nicholls' pace 60 spots below last season. Not sure why.
92	9:00	St. Thomas	Cal	-13	143	Cal is one of the biggest mysteries of the offseason with as evident a coaching upgrade in the country, but only a couple of decent player acquisitions. Thinking a pass here.	Though Tommies were a much better O team than D, they scored under 1 PPP against all three of the best defenses they played. Madsen's UVU would have been the 3rd-best D Tommies would have played.
93	9:00	Dartmouth	Duke	-26	143	Dartmouth is just not very good and doesn't have many scoring guards, Duke should be able to overwhelm them.	Dartmouth went 4-7-1 ATS and 2-10 outright in non-con last season. None of the teams they played were higher than No. 114 in KP. They haven't played a top-100 HM team since 2015.
94	9:00	Southern	TCU	-31	140	Some horror stories from last year will probably make me stay away from TCU here, but also this team should be a bit better on O overall while keeping a fast pace. Southern is brand new.	Insane non-con for TCU vs. MM last season. First three games - 0-3 ATS with -27.2 margin!!!!! including outright loss to NW St. Last four games - 4-0 ATS with 15.3 margin. Just no sense at all. Market correction isn't an excuse.
95	9:00	SEMO	Grand Canyon	-21	144	GCU is No. 2 on my true mid-majors list. They're crazy talented. Meanwhile, SEMO loses all three of their double-digit scorers from last season. But a 20+ number is a ton here.	Last year's splits tell you not to bet GCU here. 4-7 ATS, all against MM team. SEMO was 6-5.
96	9:00	Abilene Christian	Oklahoma St	-13	142	OKSt's backcourt should be much better at handling the pressure than last year's team, and ACU really doesn't have as much talent on the roster as previous. Still, probably a leave.	OKSt's replaces Anderson and Asberry's -9.2 margin in ARate to TORate with Small and Hicklen's +14.2 margin. Both guys' margin stays similar against Tier A+B.
97	9:00	Illinois Chicago	Cincinnati	-20	141	UIC really needs to force turnovers to have success, and Wes Miller's teams have had fantastic ball control in recent years, including both Cincy teams. New PGs give a little pause. I'll see # here.	UIC went 2-6 ATS against teams in the top-100 in TO%. Also went 1-6 ATS in games they failed to put up 15% TORate on D. Cincy was at 15.2% both of Miller's years. Obviously DeJulius helped a ton, so there's a bit of concern.
98	9:15	Akron	South Dakota St	-5	144	Castaneda had 8 threes, SDSU shot 27% from 3, and Akron won by 1 at home last year. No Castaneda and same core for SDSU after last year's struggles. Gimme home fav.	Akron was 1-2 ATS when Xavier Castaneda didn't play or didn't score in double figures. Kinda just re-iterating the point that he was unreal and they're really going to miss him, especially to start the year.
99	9:30	Portland State	Air Force	-4	140	Two completely different playing styles. I think AFU can keep the pace slowish like last year, but there were soooo many free throws. Still a slight under lean.	Th PSU game was the only time all year that AFU playes a 70-possession regulation game. Fastest team AFU played, so makes sense.
100	9:30	Morgan State	Arizona	-33	155	Arizona's pace and size is definitely the type of system you want to back as a huge favourite against these smaller MM teams with lack of style. Though the number will be insane.	Arizona went just 2-2 ATS against true low majors last season, after going 3-0-1 the year prior. They have gone 6-2 O/U in those games, though.