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A typical Serial Acquirer Theoretic model
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EquityProfit
Debt @ year start
new debtinteresttotal CF
Acquired profit
Organic Growth
Total Profit power
Acq profit %
ROEActual Debt / EBITDA
Comment
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1 100.0 15.0 45.0 2.7 42.3 6.4 0.3 21.7 43%21.7%2.07
Starting point - all equity, no debt with 15% ROE
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2 121.7 21.7 65.2 20.2 3.9 38.0 5.4 0.4 27.6 25%22.7%2.36
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3 149.3 27.6 82.8 17.6 5.0 40.2 5.7 0.6 33.9 21%22.7%2.44
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4 183.2 33.9 101.7 18.9 6.1 46.7 6.7 0.7 41.2 20%22.5%2.47
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5 224.4 41.2 123.7 22.0 7.4 55.9 8.0 0.8 50.0 19%22.3%2.47
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6 274.5 50.0 150.1 26.4 9.0 67.4 9.6 1.0 60.7 19%22.1%2.47
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7 335.2 60.7 182.0 31.9 10.9 81.7 11.7 1.2 73.6 19%21.9%2.47
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8 408.7 73.6 220.7 38.6 13.2 99.0 14.1 1.5 89.2 19%21.8%2.47
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9 497.9 89.2 267.5 46.8 16.0 119.9 17.1 1.8 108.1 19%21.7%2.47
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10 606.0 108.1 324.2 56.7 19.5 145.4 20.8 2.2 131.0 19%21.6%2.47
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11 737.0 131.0 393.0 68.8 23.6 176.2 25.2 2.6 158.8 19%21.5%2.47
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12 895.8 158.8 476.4 83.4 28.6 213.6 30.5 3.2 192.5 19%21.5%2.47
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13 1,088.2 192.5 577.5 101.1 34.6 258.9 37.0 3.8 233.3 19%21.4%2.47
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14 1,321.6 233.3 700.0 122.5 42.0 313.8 44.8 4.7 282.8 19%21.4%2.47
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15 1,604.4 282.8 848.5 148.5 50.9 380.4 54.3 5.7 342.8 19%21.4%2.47
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16 1,947.2 342.8 1,028.5 180.0 61.7 461.1 65.9 6.9 415.6 19%21.3%2.47
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17 2,362.8 415.6 1,246.7 218.2 74.8 559.0 79.9 8.3 503.7 19%21.3%2.47
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18 2,866.5 503.7 1,511.2 264.5 90.7 677.5 96.8 10.1 610.6 19%21.3%2.47
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19 3,477.1 610.6 1,831.8 320.6 109.9 821.3 117.3 12.2 740.1 19%21.3%2.47
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20 4,217.2 740.1 2,220.4 388.6 133.2 995.5 142.2 14.8 897.1 19%21.3%2.47
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21 5,114.4 897.1 2,691.4 471.1 161.5 1,206.7 172.4 17.9 1,087.5 19%21.3%2.47
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22 6,201.9 1,087.5 3,262.4 571.0 195.7 1,462.7 209.0 21.7 1,318.2 19%21.3%2.47
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23 7,520.0 1,318.2 3,954.6 692.1 237.3 1,773.0 253.3 26.4 1,597.8 19%21.2%2.47
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24 9,117.9 1,597.8 4,793.5 839.0 287.6 2,149.2 307.0 32.0 1,936.8 19%21.2%2.47
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25 11,054.7 1,936.8 5,810.5 1,017.0 348.6 2,605.2 372.2 38.7 2,347.7 19%21.2%2.47
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CAGR20.7%
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Notes
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Profit
Starting point is always the profit of last year. Profit is net profit CF=Net profit, incl. depreciation - takes into account approximation of capex
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Acquired Profit
Profit power acquired with cashflow from last year plus maximum amount of debt possible to take on this year.
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Acquisition multiple
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Required Dedt/EBITDA Mult
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Interest 6%
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Organic Growth
2%
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Most sensitive parameter: Acquisition multiple
הפרמטר הרגיש ביותר- מכפיל הרכישה
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Second most sensitive: Debt load - leverage
הפרמטר השני הכי רגיש - מכפיל החוב (גובה המינוף). פחות מ3- שמרני
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Third most sensitive - Organic growth
הפרמטר השלישי הכי רגיש - צמיחה אורגאנית
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Least sensitive - debt interest
הפרמטר הכי פחות רגיש - ריבית החוב
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