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2024 UK General Election Voter Intention MRP
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Dates conducted : 30 May to 21st June 2024
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Sample size : 18,865 GB adults
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SAMPLING
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WeThink interviewed 18,865, online, across the UK from 31st May to 21st June 2024.
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METHODOLOGY
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To produce the figures in this file we surveyed a representative sample of 18,595 British adults between May 30th and June 21st, 2024
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We asked respondents which party they planned to support, along with where they lived and basic demographic information about them.
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Using these data, we built a statistical model—the “multilevel regression” of MRP—to predict the voting intentions for each of 16m possible unique combinations of voters’ age, sex, ethnic group, highest qualification, constituency and voting history.
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This model is similar to The Economists British “build-a-voter” tool that you can explore here : https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/build-a-voter .
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For example, we estimate that a 50 to 54-year-old white woman in Bromsgrove, whose highest qualification is GCSE, who voted to leave the European Union in 2016 and Conservative in 2019, has a 45% chance of voting Conservative again this time and a 29% chance of voting for Reform UK.
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The next step, known as “post-stratification”, involves estimating how many people in each of these 16m profiles live in each constituency. In Bromsgrove, there are around 185 people in the group described above, for example, whereas in Bethnal Green and Stepney there are only 5.
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To produce the final results, we simply multiply the expected vote shares for each party in a given demographic group by the number of people in each constituency who belong to that group.
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For questions on these results, please contact Brian Cooper (brian@omnisis.co.uk) or Owen Winter (owenwinter@economist.com)
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Follow us on Twitter at @wethinkpolling
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