ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAG
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Tree layers
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AGI by 2070
Intense competition
Fast take-offUnipolarMisaligned AILoss of controlUnrecoverable
3
Mild competitionSlow take-offMultipolarAligned AI
Non loss of control
Recoverable
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5
Loss of control
Non loss of control
How probability mass of all AI related catastrophes splits up into recoverability
p(unrecoverability coming from loss of control)
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Unrecoverable21.91%23.27%45.18%49%
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Recoverable12.81%42.01%54.82%23%
8
All catastrophes34.72%65.28%100.00%
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10
26%
p(AGI catastrophe | AGI by 2070)
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12
Loss of control
Non loss of control
How probability mass of all AI related catastrophes splits up into recoverability
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Unrecoverable5.7%6.0%11.7%
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Recoverable3.3%10.9%14.3%
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All catastrophes9.0%17.0%26.0%
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Fast80%Unipolar215%Aligned285%0.35625
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SlowMultipolarMisaligned515%0.64375
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If catastrophe happens, what caused it?
Is the catastrophe recoverable?
Scenario-weighted probabilities of catastrophe recoverability
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Loss of controlLoss of control
Non loss of control
Non loss of control
Loss of controlLoss of control
Non loss of control
Non loss of control
25
Overall p()Loss of control
Non loss of control
UnrecoverableRecoverableUnrecoverableRecoverableUnrecoverableRecoverableUnrecoverableRecoverable
26
Misaligned AI70%→13%65%35%75%25%55%45%6%2%2%2%
27
Unipolar60%
28
Aligned AI30%→5%15%85%20%80%35%65%0%1%2%3%
29
Fast take-off50%
30
Misaligned AI80%→10%70%30%80%20%55%45%5%1%2%1%
31
Multipolar40%
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Aligned AI20%→2%17%83%25%75%35%65%0%0%1%1%
33
Intense competition60%
34
Misaligned AI60%→5%40%60%55%45%45%55%1%1%1%2%
35
Unipolar30%
36
Aligned AI40%→4%5%95%10%90%25%75%0%0%1%3%
37
Slow take-off50%
38
Misaligned AI65%→14%45%55%60%40%45%55%4%2%3%4%
39
Multipolar70%
40
Aligned AI35%→7%7%93%15%85%25%75%0%0%2%5%
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Misaligned AI65%→6%50%50%65%35%50%50%2%1%1%1%
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Unipolar75%
44
Aligned AI35%→3%10%90%15%85%30%70%0%0%1%2%
45
Fast take-off30%
46
Misaligned AI70%→2%60%40%70%30%50%50%1%0%0%0%
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Multipolar25%
48
Aligned AI30%→1%12%88%20%80%30%70%0%0%0%1%
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Mild competition40%
50
Misaligned AI50%→7%30%70%45%55%40%60%1%1%2%3%
51
Unipolar50%
52
Aligned AI50%→7%1%99%5%95%20%80%0%0%1%6%
53
Slow take-off70%
54
Misaligned AI55%→8%35%65%50%50%40%60%1%1%2%3%
55
Multipolar50%
56
Aligned AI45%→6%2%98%10%90%20%80%0%0%1%5%
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100%464%1136%620.00%980.00%600.00%1000.00%21.91%12.81%23.27%42.01%
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29%71%1600.00%1600.00%34.72%65.28%
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19.38%30.63%18.75%31.25%
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50.00%50.00%
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