| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | |
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1 | https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/01/25/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-7-toolbox | |||||||||||||||||||||
2 | https://earlyretirementnow.com/2018/08/29/google-sheet-updates-swr-series-part-28 | |||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Video Tutorial: | https://youtu.be/CClhsaBbTm0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Please see the Disclosure Statement. All rights reserved. When sharing with others please give credit! Thanks! | |||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Please note the difference between a “safe withdrawal rate (SWR)” and a “safe consumption rate (SCR)”. This toolkit calculates Safe Consumption Rates and Safe Initial Consumption Amounts (in tab “Cash Flow Assist”). This distinction is due to the supplemental cash flows (e.g., Social Security, Pension, Home sale, etc.). The actual withdrawal amounts from the portfolio are reduced by the supplemental cash flows if the latter are positive. Or the withdrawal amounts are higher if you have negative supplemental flows (e.g., large occasional expenses like college, second home purchase, etc.). Of course, in the absence of supplemental cash flows, the safe withdrawal rate is the same as the safe consumption rate. I will keep the "SWR" in the name of the sheet and my 50+ part series, but please be aware of the subtle difference! | |||||||||||||||||||||
6 | Parameters: | Results: | ||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Portfolio: | Failure Probabilities of different initial consumption rates | Failure Probabilities Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown | Failure Probabilities Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown | ||||||||||||||||||
8 | Stocks: S&P 500, US large-cap | 75% | WR | All | Since 1926 | CAPE<=20 | CAPE>20 | CAPE>20 and SPX at all-time high | S&P500 High | Drdwn 0-10% | Drdwn 10-20% | Drdwn 20-30% | Drdwn>30% | S&P500 High | Drdwn 0-5% | Drdwn 5-10% | Drdwn 10-15% | Drdwn 15-20% | Drdwn 20-30% | Drdwn 30-40% | Drdwn 40%+ | |
9 | Bonds: 10y U.S. Treasury | 25% | 2.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
10 | Bonds: 30y U.S. Treasury | 0% | (new!!!) | 2.25% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.14% | 1.11% | 3.20% | 1.35% | 0.17% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.35% | 0.28% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
11 | Cash: 3m U.S. T-bills | 0% | 2.50% | 5.92% | 5.46% | 1.74% | 22.01% | 27.20% | 11.89% | 10.00% | 0.34% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.89% | 10.67% | 8.93% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
12 | Non-US Stocks (1970-current) | 0% | 2.75% | 11.33% | 9.91% | 4.64% | 37.05% | 43.20% | 20.27% | 18.97% | 4.14% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.27% | 18.82% | 19.20% | 4.73% | 3.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
13 | Custom Series1 | 0% | 3.00% | 17.31% | 16.30% | 9.06% | 49.03% | 56.00% | 24.86% | 28.62% | 13.10% | 2.36% | 0.00% | 24.86% | 26.40% | 32.14% | 13.02% | 13.22% | 2.36% | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
14 | Custom Series2 | 0% | 3.25% | 22.94% | 20.74% | 14.42% | 55.71% | 62.40% | 31.35% | 31.72% | 25.52% | 10.85% | 0.70% | 31.35% | 29.78% | 34.82% | 27.81% | 22.31% | 10.85% | 1.15% | 0.00% | |
15 | Gold | 0% | 3.50% | 31.57% | 27.41% | 22.68% | 65.74% | 70.40% | 40.00% | 41.38% | 38.62% | 19.81% | 2.44% | 40.00% | 40.73% | 42.41% | 43.20% | 32.23% | 19.81% | 4.02% | 0.00% | |
16 | Fama-French Style Factors. Only post Jul-1926 | 3.75% | 39.91% | 35.19% | 29.20% | 81.06% | 79.20% | 46.22% | 52.93% | 45.17% | 33.96% | 4.53% | 46.22% | 52.53% | 53.57% | 47.93% | 41.32% | 33.96% | 7.47% | 0.00% | ||
17 | Small Stocks (SMB) | 0.00% | 4.00% | 47.10% | 42.31% | 35.65% | 91.09% | 87.20% | 51.08% | 59.14% | 54.48% | 44.81% | 11.85% | 51.08% | 54.78% | 66.07% | 57.40% | 50.41% | 44.81% | 14.37% | 7.96% | |
18 | Value Stocks (HML) | 0.00% | SCRs to target different Failure Rates | SCR to target Failure Rates, Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown | SCR to target Failure Rates, Conditional on S&P500 Drawdown | |||||||||||||||||
19 | Expense Ratio (p.a.) | 0.05% | Failure Rates | All | Since 1926 | CAPE<=20 | CAPE>20 | CAPE>20 and SPX at all-time high | S&P500 High | Drdwn 0-10% | Drdwn 10-20% | Drdwn 20-30% | Drdwn>30% | S&P500 High | Drdwn 0-5% | Drdwn 5-10% | Drdwn 10-15% | Drdwn 15-20% | Drdwn 20-30% | Drdwn 30-40% | Drdwn 40%+ | |
20 | Project Future Real Returns | 0.00% | 2.10% | 2.13% | 2.21% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.25% | 2.50% | 2.85% | 3.17% | 2.10% | 2.25% | 2.33% | 2.50% | 2.57% | 2.85% | 3.17% | 3.75% | ||
21 | Stocks for next 10Y | 4.00% | 1.00% | 2.30% | 2.32% | 2.40% | 2.24% | 2.15% | 2.22% | 2.31% | 2.62% | 2.96% | 3.30% | 2.22% | 2.31% | 2.37% | 2.61% | 2.64% | 2.96% | 3.26% | 3.76% | |
22 | Stocks after that | 5.50% | 2.00% | 2.35% | 2.38% | 2.56% | 2.27% | 2.22% | 2.26% | 2.35% | 2.66% | 2.98% | 3.48% | 2.26% | 2.32% | 2.40% | 2.65% | 2.69% | 2.98% | 3.35% | 3.77% | |
23 | 10Y Bonds for next 10Y | 1.50% | 5.00% | 2.46% | 2.48% | 2.78% | 2.33% | 2.27% | 2.35% | 2.41% | 2.82% | 3.16% | 3.76% | 2.35% | 2.38% | 2.44% | 2.77% | 2.87% | 3.16% | 3.53% | 3.93% | |
24 | 10Y Bonds after that | 2.00% | 10.00% | 2.71% | 2.77% | 3.07% | 2.39% | 2.33% | 2.45% | 2.50% | 2.91% | 3.22% | 3.95% | 2.45% | 2.48% | 2.54% | 2.89% | 2.96% | 3.22% | 3.86% | 4.11% | |
25 | 30Y Bonds for next 10Y | 1.75% | 25.00% | 3.29% | 3.41% | 3.60% | 2.55% | 2.47% | 3.02% | 2.89% | 3.24% | 3.62% | 4.62% | 3.02% | 2.90% | 2.88% | 3.22% | 3.32% | 3.62% | 4.73% | 4.51% | |
26 | 30Y Bonds after that | 1.25% | 50.00% | 4.17% | 4.47% | 4.75% | 3.03% | 2.85% | 3.96% | 3.69% | 3.86% | 4.32% | 5.64% | 3.96% | 3.70% | 3.67% | 3.80% | 3.96% | 4.32% | 5.81% | 5.59% | |
27 | Cash for next 10Y | 1.00% | Failsafe around 5 Prominent Market Peaks | Failsafe by Equity Drawdown | ||||||||||||||||||
28 | Cash after that | 1.50% | ||||||||||||||||||||
29 | Non-US Stocks for next 10Y | 4.00% | 1929 | 2.13% | Drawdown | SCR | Relative | |||||||||||||||
30 | Non-US Stocks after that | 5.50% | 1964-69 | 2.27% | 0% | 2.10% | 100.00 | |||||||||||||||
31 | Custom Series1 for next 10Y | 0.00% | 1972/73 | 2.72% | 5% | 2.33% | 111.09 | |||||||||||||||
32 | Custom Series1 after that | 0.00% | 1999-2000 | 2.26% | 10% | 2.50% | 119.02 | |||||||||||||||
33 | Custom Series2 for next 10Y | 0.00% | 2008/09 | 3.35% | 15% | 2.57% | 122.49 | |||||||||||||||
34 | Custom Series2 after that | 0.00% | Failsafe by Decade | 20% | 2.85% | 135.56 | ||||||||||||||||
35 | Gold for next 10Y | 1.00% | 25% | 2.96% | 140.87 | |||||||||||||||||
36 | Gold after that | 1.00% | 1920s | 2.13% | 30% | 3.17% | 151.14 | |||||||||||||||
37 | Retirement Horizon (Months) | 600 | 1930s | 2.57% | 35% | 3.46% | 164.76 | |||||||||||||||
38 | Final Value Target (%of initial) | 33% | 1940s | 3.81% | 40% | 3.75% | 178.66 | |||||||||||||||
39 | CAPE Model (1=old,2=new) | 2 | (new!!!) | 1950s | 3.05% | 45% | 3.99% | 190.29 | ||||||||||||||
40 | 1960s | 2.27% | 50% | 4.89% | 232.98 | |||||||||||||||||
41 | Supplemental Income/Expenses | 1970s | 2.72% | |||||||||||||||||||
42 | Month | % of initial Portf. | 1980s | 4.99% | ||||||||||||||||||
43 | 1 | -0.0833% | 1990s | 2.37% | ||||||||||||||||||
44 | 2 | -0.0833% | 2000s | 2.26% | ||||||||||||||||||
45 | 3 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
46 | 4 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
47 | 5 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
48 | 6 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
49 | 7 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
50 | 8 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
51 | 9 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
52 | 10 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
53 | 11 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
54 | 12 | -0.0833% | ||||||||||||||||||||
55 | 13 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
56 | 14 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
57 | 15 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
58 | 16 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
59 | 17 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
60 | 18 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
61 | 19 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
62 | 20 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
63 | 21 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
64 | 22 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
65 | 23 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
66 | 24 | -0.0838% | ||||||||||||||||||||
67 | 25 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
68 | 26 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
69 | 27 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
70 | 28 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
71 | 29 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
72 | 30 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
73 | 31 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
74 | 32 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
75 | 33 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
76 | 34 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
77 | 35 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
78 | 36 | -0.0842% | ||||||||||||||||||||
79 | 37 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
80 | 38 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
81 | 39 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
82 | 40 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
83 | 41 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
84 | 42 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
85 | 43 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
86 | 44 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
87 | 45 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
88 | 46 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
89 | 47 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
90 | 48 | -0.0846% | ||||||||||||||||||||
91 | 49 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
92 | 50 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
93 | 51 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
94 | 52 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
95 | 53 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
96 | 54 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
97 | 55 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
98 | 56 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
99 | 57 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||
100 | 58 | -0.0850% | ||||||||||||||||||||