ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAYAZBABBBCBDBEBFBGBHBIBJBKBLBMBNBOBPBQBRBSBTBUBVBWBXBYBZCACBCCCDCECFCGCHCICJCKCLCMCNCO
1
Nation : Poland Of Europe
2
-Seat Projection
3
TypePolling DateUnited RightCivic CoalitionConfederationThird WayThe Left
German Minority
Nonpartisan Localists
Other PartiesZP HOLDUnited RightCivic Coalition
Confederation Freedom & Independence
Third WayThe Left
German Minority
Nonpartisan Localists
Other Parties
4
ZPKOKONTDKLMNBSINNEOVER KOTypePolling DateZPKOKONTDKLMNBSINNE
5
Right-wing
Center Big Tent
Far-RightCenterCenter-LeftCenter
Left-wing Big Tent
MixedZP EDGERight-wing
Center Big Tent
Far-RightCenterCenter-LeftCenter
Left-wing Big Tent
Mixed
6
Seat Projection
08/24~08/311871365641381005121 – Opole4411110012
7
"Last Projection Difference"
"+14""-7""-7""-3""+2""+0""+0""+0"
"Last Projection Difference" - Compared To Last Projection (2023 July)
22 – Krosno6211100011
8
"Last Election Difference"
"-48""+2""+45""+11""-11""+0""+0""+0"
"Last Election Difference" - Compared To Last Election
23 – Rzeszów9221100015
9
Seat Percentage
40.65%29.57%12.17%8.91%8.26%0.22%0.00%0.00%11.09%24 – Białystok7321100014
10
1 – Legnica531120001225 – Gdańsk3521100012
11
2 – Wałbrzych33110000826 – Słupsk4522100014
12
3 – Wrocław4521200014
27 – Bielsko-Biała I
331110009
13
4 – Bydgoszcz4421100012
28 – Częstochowa
321010007
14
5 – Toruń542110001329 – Katowice I331110009
15
6 – Lublin8321100015
30 – Bielsko-Biała II
431100009
16
7 – Chełm721110001231 – Katowice II4511100012
17
8 – Zielona Góra
4421100012
32 – Katowice III
331110009
18
9 – Łódź341110001033 – Kielce8321100015
19
10 – Piotrków Trybunalski
52101000934 – Elbląg321110008
20
11 – Sieradz631110001235 – Olsztyn4311100010
21
12 – Kraków I42110000836 – Kalisz5321100012
22
13 – Kraków II552110001437 – Konin421110009
23
14 – Nowy Sącz
621100001038 – Piła331110009
24
15 – Tarnów52110000939 – Poznań2511100010
25
16 – Płock521110001040 – Koszalin231110008
26
17 – Radom52110000941 – Szczecin4511100012
27
18 – Siedlce7221000012
28
19 – Warsaw I4922300020
29
20 – Warsaw II4421100012
30
31
-Vote Share Projection
32
TypePolling DateSample SizeSample
Percentage
United RightCivic CoalitionConfederationThe LeftThird Way
Nonpartisan Localists
Other PartiesZP HOLDSource
33
ZPKOKONKLTDBSINNEOVER KO
34
Right-wing
Center Big Tent
Far-RightCenter-LeftCenter
Left-wing Big Tent
MixedZP EDGE
35
Vote Share Projection
08/24~08/315,724100.00%37.86%30.49%12.01%9.45%9.23%0.50%0.46%7.37%
36
0.37858073500.30487986040.12009307730.09449032110.09227698090.00500910250.00466992271.0000000000
37
"Last Projection Difference"
"+2.43pp""-1.11pp""-1.02pp""+1.00pp""-1.04pp""-0.34pp""+0.08pp"
"Last Projection Difference" - Compared To Last Projection (2023 July)
38
"Last Election Difference"
"-5.73pp""+3.09pp""+5.21pp""-3.11pp""+0.68pp""-0.28pp""+0.14pp"
"Last Election Difference" - Compared To Last Election
39
"National Swing"0.86844404091.11283644861.76474729340.75230342360.25673334460.63908104621.4814390438
https://sejmsenat2019.pkw.gov.pl/sejmsenat2019/pl/wyniki/sejm/pl
40
Average08/24~08/315,724100.00%36.17%29.13%11.47%9.03%8.82%0.48%0.45%
41
0.36173419940.29131295390.11474903280.09028557840.08817073010.00478620150.00446211490.9555008112
42
Pollster08/23~08/245199.07%35.59%30.35%10.40%8.89%10.71%0.90%3.16%
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/platforma-obywatelska-goni-prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc-konfederacja-traci-miejsce-na-podium-aa-PyP6-aBFi-t6GF.html
43
0.03227217520.02752066640.00943047550.00806124300.00971157620.00081609880.0028654137
44
Estymator08/24~08/251,02217.86%35.90%30.20%12.70%8.70%10.40%1.50%0.60%
https://dorzeczy.pl/opinie/474456/wybory-sejm-pis-i-ko-na-czele-jest-sondaz-dla-dorzeczypl.html
45
0.06410298270.05392507180.02267709970.01553470610.01857022340.00267423090.0010755258
46
IBRiS08/25~08/261,10019.22%33.40%27.20%12.40%9.30%10.00%
https://www.wnp.pl/parlamentarny/sondaze/pis-nie-bedzie-mogl-rzadzic-samodzielnie,1291.html
47
0.06419069010.05227505300.02383127420.01787345560.01921876950.00000000000.0000000000
48
CBOS08/14~08/272935.11%37.00%21.00%6.00%4.00%5.00%
https://twitter.com/CBOS_Info/status/1696470727753351456
49
0.01891326590.01073455630.00306701610.00204467740.00255584670.00000000000.0000000000
50
Social Changes08/25~08/281,04018.17%41.00%32.00%12.00%8.00%6.00%0.71%0.29%
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/660441-sensacyjny-przelom-pis-ma-czworke-z-przodu
51
0.07449893920.05814551350.02180456760.01453637840.01090228380.00129587180.0005211755
52
Mands08/29~08/3175013.10%38.10%32.10%10.70%11.80%7.30%
https://wroclaw.tvp.pl/72432136/wybory-2023-sondaz-dla-wiadomosci-tvp-pis-381-ko-321
53
0.04992512170.04206289780.01402096590.01546237360.00956570570.00000000000.0000000000
54
IBRiS08/30~08/311,00017.47%33.10%26.70%11.40%9.60%10.10%
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/nowy-sondaz-wyborczy-pis-na-czele-zaskakuje-cos-innego-konfederacja-znika/bf30qgg,79cfc278
55
0.05783102460.04664919510.01991763380.01677274430.01764632470.00000000000.0000000000
56
#The Sample Size Of Polls Which Didn't Mentioned About It Set As 500.
57
58
-District Projections
59
Characterlization / CallZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDKO GAINKO GAINZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDKO GAINKO HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDKO HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDKO HOLDKO GAINZP HOLDZP HOLDKO GAINZP HOLDKO GAINKO GAINZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDZP HOLDKO GAINKO HOLDKO GAINKO HOLD
60
OVER KOOVER KOKO GAINFROM ZPFROM ZPOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOFROM ZPOVER ZPOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER ZPOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER ZPFROM ZPOVER KOOVER KOFROM ZPOVER KOFROM ZPFROM ZPOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOOVER KOFROM ZPOVER ZPFROM ZPOVER ZP
61
ZP EDGEZP EDGE
EXTREMELY CLOSE
KO EDGE
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ZP EDGEZP AHEADZP AHEADKO EDGEKO AHEADZP AHEADZP AHEADZP AHEAD
EXTREMELY CLOSE
ZP AHEADZP AHEADZP AHEADZP AHEADZP AHEADKO AHEAD
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ZP AHEADZP AHEADZP AHEADKO AHEADKO EDGEZP AHEADZP AHEAD
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ZP AHEADKO EDGE
EXTREMELY CLOSE
ZP AHEAD
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ZP EDGEZP AHEAD
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
KO AHEAD
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
KO EDGE
62
Margin7.37%9.20%0.50%6.17%2.89%5.83%27.71%37.72%5.02%10.68%33.74%21.69%21.03%0.42%44.04%39.58%30.01%33.16%39.75%20.91%3.68%2.89%39.08%39.63%22.41%16.63%7.86%10.20%13.85%3.36%10.85%6.82%0.75%31.27%3.93%4.39%9.80%19.09%3.16%25.96%3.94%8.87%
63
NATIONAL1 – Legnica2 – Wałbrzych3 – Wrocław4 – Bydgoszcz5 – Toruń6 – Lublin7 – Chełm
8 – Zielona Góra
9 – Łódź
10 – Piotrków Trybunalski
11 – Sieradz12 – Kraków I13 – Kraków II
14 – Nowy Sącz
15 – Tarnów16 – Płock17 – Radom18 – Siedlce19 – Warsaw I20 – Warsaw II21 – Opole22 – Krosno23 – Rzeszów24 – Białystok25 – Gdańsk26 – Słupsk
27 – Bielsko-Biała I
28 – Częstochowa
29 – Katowice I
30 – Bielsko-Biała II
31 – Katowice II
32 – Katowice III
33 – Kielce34 – Elbląg35 – Olsztyn36 – Kalisz37 – Konin38 – Piła39 – Poznań40 – Koszalin41 – Szczecin
64
United Right1835344587435645United Right65557444697344United Right33443834543234United Right
65
ZP37.86%36.82%35.21%30.11%31.63%35.07%48.10%50.38%29.78%28.58%48.81%43.26%46.44%34.35%ZP57.14%51.75%45.55%50.22%51.90%23.87%35.51%32.69%55.03%54.17%45.19%27.88%31.64%40.61%ZP38.46%32.78%41.92%34.03%32.25%47.92%35.48%33.71%36.89%41.07%30.95%22.00%31.99%30.49%ZP
66
Right-wing37.72%34.73%29.10%31.28%36.11%50.06%56.05%29.77%27.05%52.44%45.86%46.96%33.30%Right-wing60.27%56.64%50.99%53.49%56.70%21.78%35.57%31.89%57.66%56.26%46.51%25.61%30.12%40.04%Right-wing40.11%31.45%41.01%31.51%31.62%50.98%36.37%34.72%38.54%42.87%31.55%20.03%31.72%29.23%Right-wing
67
38.2270%38.5089%35.2492%29.6869%31.5315%36.3862%50.5097%56.5161%29.7742%27.0486%52.4373%46.3463%46.9599%33.7297%60.2721%56.6350%51.5591%54.4048%57.4333%21.7758%36.0744%31.8902%57.6596%56.7830%47.3117%25.6125%30.1224%40.0366%40.8599%31.9579%41.4065%31.5111%31.6197%52.5213%36.9758%35.0930%38.5367%43.3017%31.5493%20.0316%31.7213%29.2337%
68
Civic Coalition1363354432442325Civic Coalition22222943233553Civic Coalition23353333323535Civic Coalition
69
KO30.49%27.84%35.71%36.50%34.56%29.41%21.48%16.47%34.80%39.86%17.40%22.79%25.64%33.92%KO15.39%15.58%18.75%19.08%15.51%46.79%31.84%29.73%17.74%16.01%23.41%45.98%39.90%30.27%KO25.18%36.29%30.83%41.39%33.01%18.53%31.64%29.45%27.51%22.79%34.05%50.50%35.96%39.74%KO
70
Center Big Tent
28.52%35.22%35.27%34.17%30.28%22.36%18.33%34.79%37.73%18.70%24.16%25.93%32.88%
Center Big Tent
16.23%17.05%20.99%20.33%16.95%42.68%31.89%29.00%18.58%16.63%24.10%42.24%37.98%29.84%
Center Big Tent
26.26%34.81%30.16%38.33%32.37%19.71%32.43%30.33%28.73%23.79%34.71%45.99%35.66%38.10%
Center Big Tent
71
30.7855%29.1158%35.7530%35.9815%34.4471%30.5122%22.5574%18.4786%34.7915%37.7274%18.6955%24.4213%25.9299%33.3073%16.2287%17.0506%21.2202%20.6757%17.1654%42.6826%32.3414%28.9980%18.5831%16.7812%24.5126%42.2419%37.9837%29.8406%26.7523%35.3773%30.4516%38.3280%32.3676%20.3068%32.9752%30.6567%28.7320%24.0258%34.7135%45.9870%35.6609%38.1004%
72
Confederation561121221211112Confederation11112211122121Confederation11111211111111Confederation
73
KON12.01%10.33%9.57%13.15%12.43%11.17%12.48%10.31%12.69%11.73%11.94%10.37%12.46%14.09%KON12.27%12.56%9.24%10.39%11.45%13.26%11.69%10.06%12.03%14.57%12.27%12.73%12.87%13.10%KON10.72%13.53%12.65%12.93%11.39%10.50%9.98%12.31%11.60%11.90%11.69%11.67%10.56%11.53%KON
74
Far-Right10.58%9.44%12.71%12.29%11.50%12.99%11.47%12.69%11.11%12.82%11.00%12.60%13.66%Far-Right12.95%13.74%10.35%11.07%12.51%12.10%11.71%9.82%12.60%15.13%12.63%11.70%12.26%12.92%Far-Right11.18%12.98%12.38%11.98%11.17%11.17%10.23%12.67%12.12%12.42%11.92%10.63%10.47%11.06%Far-Right
75
12.1264%10.8052%9.5811%12.9670%12.3927%11.5880%13.1089%11.5629%12.6858%11.1058%12.8241%11.1144%12.6030%13.8379%12.9460%13.7401%10.4599%11.2570%12.6739%12.0961%11.8797%9.8163%12.6004%15.2690%12.8503%11.6978%12.2560%12.9169%11.3866%13.1893%12.4985%11.9750%11.1687%11.5041%10.4020%12.8124%12.1154%12.5481%11.9174%10.6275%10.4724%11.0554%
76
The Left502121211111111The Left00111211111111The Left11111911111111The Left
77
KL9.45%12.36%9.29%11.59%11.41%11.16%5.87%5.14%11.74%15.12%8.24%9.01%6.40%9.79%KL4.57%4.47%6.59%5.59%4.86%13.69%9.84%8.83%4.54%4.96%6.84%10.13%9.38%8.64%KL11.73%10.07%7.28%8.97%16.48%7.48%8.76%10.41%10.11%11.31%9.99%12.40%11.61%11.47%KL
78
Center-Left12.66%9.17%11.20%11.28%11.49%6.11%5.72%11.74%14.31%8.85%9.55%6.47%9.49%Center-Left4.82%4.89%7.37%5.95%5.31%12.49%9.86%8.61%4.76%5.15%7.04%9.31%8.93%8.52%Center-Left12.23%9.66%7.12%8.31%16.16%7.96%8.98%10.72%10.56%11.81%10.18%11.30%11.52%11.00%Center-Left
79
9.5416%12.9280%9.3039%11.4287%11.3730%11.5755%6.1665%5.7630%11.7365%14.3133%8.8512%9.6526%6.4732%9.6078%4.8192%4.8903%7.4561%6.0542%5.3743%12.4854%10.0006%8.6125%4.7584%5.1989%7.1627%9.3108%8.9334%8.5171%12.4608%9.8144%7.1889%8.3052%16.1562%8.2036%9.1256%10.8397%10.5554%11.9273%10.1846%11.2962%11.5166%10.9998%
80
Third Way421111111111111Third Way11111211111111Third Way11111111111111Third Way
81
TD9.23%8.26%10.10%10.08%10.29%9.58%7.29%6.85%11.02%10.36%6.69%7.90%7.95%9.69%TD5.44%7.02%8.22%7.02%6.64%12.02%9.55%9.50%6.11%5.69%7.80%12.12%11.24%8.81%TD8.04%9.91%8.56%10.67%8.86%6.81%10.10%10.18%9.63%7.77%11.41%13.24%10.72%11.07%TD
82
Center8.47%9.96%9.74%10.17%9.86%7.59%7.62%11.01%9.80%7.19%8.38%8.03%9.40%Center5.73%7.68%9.20%7.48%7.26%10.96%9.57%9.27%6.40%5.91%8.02%11.14%10.70%8.69%Center8.38%9.51%8.37%9.88%8.69%7.25%10.35%10.48%10.06%8.12%11.64%12.06%10.63%10.61%Center
83
9.3195%8.6421%10.1128%9.9358%10.2556%9.9382%7.6574%7.6794%11.0120%9.8049%7.1920%8.4653%8.0341%9.5172%5.7339%7.6839%9.3047%7.6082%7.3531%10.9600%9.7039%9.2718%6.3985%5.9679%8.1627%11.1371%10.7045%8.6888%8.5403%9.6611%8.4544%9.8806%8.6878%7.4642%10.5214%10.5982%10.0604%8.1971%11.6352%12.0577%10.6288%10.6107%
84
Nonpartisan Localists
0000000000
Nonpartisan Localists
00000
Nonpartisan Localists
00000
Nonpartisan Localists
85
BS0.50%1.99%1.50%2.05%0.82%0.74%0.85%0.74%1.00%0.91%BS0.98%0.48%0.71%1.40%0.49%BS1.76%1.67%0.98%0.61%1.61%BS
86
Left-wing Big Tent
2.04%1.48%1.98%0.81%0.76%0.88%0.83%1.06%0.88%
Left-wing Big Tent
1.10%0.51%0.77%1.40%0.51%
Left-wing Big Tent
1.83%1.60%0.96%0.64%1.65%
Left-wing Big Tent
87
88
Other Parties10000000000000Other Parties00000001000000Other Parties00000000000000Other Parties
89
INNE0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.40%INNE0.00%0.00%0.00%1.11%0.46%0.00%0.00%11.70%0.00%0.89%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%INNE0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.15%0.00%1.05%0.00%0.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%INNE
90
Mixed0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.39%Mixed0.00%0.00%0.00%1.18%0.50%0.00%0.00%11.41%0.00%0.92%1.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%Mixed0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.29%0.00%1.08%0.00%0.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%Mixed
91
11.411%
92
ESTIMATION TOTAL
100.00%97.62%101.38%103.48%101.15%97.11%96.08%89.88%100.03%105.65%93.09%94.33%98.90%103.16%94.81%91.38%89.33%93.88%91.53%109.63%99.84%102.51%95.44%96.29%97.16%108.84%105.04%101.43%95.87%104.24%102.23%108.00%101.98%93.99%97.57%97.11%95.73%95.80%98.10%109.81%100.84%104.30%
93
PROJECTION TOTAL
100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%
94
THRESHOLD-PASSED TOTAL
99.04%97.96%98.52%98.02%99.19%99.24%99.12%99.17%100.00%100.00%100.00%98.94%100.00%98.73%100.00%100.00%98.90%98.31%98.72%100.00%98.60%100.00%100.00%99.08%98.31%100.00%100.00%100.00%98.17%98.40%99.04%100.00%100.00%97.07%98.35%98.92%100.00%99.01%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%
95
TOTAL FINAL SEAT NUMBERS46812814121315121210912814109109122012121115141214979912924810129910812
96
TOTAL ORIGINAL SEAT NUMBERS 46012814121315121210912814109109122012121115141214979912916810129910812
97
98
99
100