COVID open bars and restaurants decision tree

	B	D	E	F	H	I	J
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2	Input parameter values cannot be changed in the online version
3	You can download this spreadsheet to change input parameter values
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5	Input parameters
6	pr(COVID cases increase)	0.1	insert value between 0 and 1
7	pr(Outbreak controlled)	0.95	insert value between 0 and 1
8	COVID deaths w/ controlled outbreak	40
9	COVID deaths w/ uncontrolled outbreak	200
10	Government spending w/o opening pubs	$1,700,000,000
11	Government spending w opening pubs	$425,000,000
12	Government spending w/ controlled outbreak	$6,800,000,000
13	Government spending w/ uncontrolled outbreak	$17,000,000,000
14	Life years lost per COVID death	10
15				COVID remains under control		0	COVID deaths
16				0.9		$425,000,000	weekly government support spending
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18		Open bars and restaurants this week
19	Expected costs	$1,113,500,000			Outbreak controlled	40	COVID deaths
20	Expected COVID deaths	4.8			0.95	$6,800,000,000	weekly government support spending
21	Expected life years lost	48		COVID cases increase
22				0.1
23	COVID policy decision: Open bars and restaurants this week?				Outbreak not controlled	200	COVID deaths
24	Incremental cost per life year gained	$12,218,750			0.05	$17,000,000,000	weekly government support spending
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27		Do not open bars and restaurants this week				0	COVID deaths
28	Expected costs	$1,700,000,000				$1,700,000,000	weekly government support spending
29	Expected COVID deaths	0
30	Expected life years lost	0
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