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different timelines
different instrumental boosts
different decreases in probability that we are too stupid
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Timeline103060303030303030
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efforts of x-risk reduction0,050,050,050,050,050,050,050,050,05
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P being right about causes0,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,8
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P of being too stupid0,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,1
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extent to which ME can decrease this0,010,010,010,010,010,010,010,050,1
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instrumental boost of ME1,051,051,051,011,11,31,11,11,1
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x-risk reduction over timeline with ME0,38221,14662,29321,102921,20121,41961,20121,2541,32
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x-risk reduction over timeline without ME0,361,082,161,081,081,081,081,081,08
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x-risk reduction due to ME0,02220,06660,13320,022920,12120,33960,12120,1740,24
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utopian scenariooptimistic scenariorealist scenario
pessimist scenario (short timelines)
pessimist scenario
catastrophic scenario
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Descriptionwe are very limited right now but 60y timelines allow that incredible low hanging fruit can be plucked and we can enhance our xrisk mitigation efforts by x3 through becoming the equivalent of the fusion of Nick Bostrom and Anders Sandberg - this also leads to 15% reduced probability of us being too stupid to solve xrisk40 yr timelines allow for some amazing enhancement leading to 30% increased efforts of xrisk reduction and 5% reduction in the chance of being too stupid40 yr timelines allow for some enhancement leading to 10% increased efforts of xrisk reduction and 1% reduction in the chance of being too stupidshort timelines dont allow for mind enhancement to enhance us to the extent that it reduces the chance of being too stupid for solving x risk and the effect sizes of short term deployment remain only slight at x1,01short timeline dont allow for mind enhancement to enhance us to the extent that it reduces the chance of being too stupid for solving x risk and incomptetent short term deployment actually worsens efforts of x risk with effect being at x0.9timelines being short due to non-thoughtful accelerationists enhancing themselves and their negative EV acceleration efforts by 2x after failed information hazard response after discovering a potent MEI after mind enhancement involvement
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Timeline604040151515Timeline
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efforts at x-risk reduction (% reduction per year)0,10,10,10,10,1-0,2
efforts at x-risk reduction (% reduction per year)
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P of being too stupid0,20,20,20,40,40,2
P of being too stupid
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extent to which ME can decrease this (absolute reduction of above P)
0,150,050,01000,01
extent to which ME can decrease this (absolute reduction of above P)
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instrumental boost of ME (x-risk reduction efforts multiplier)
31,31,11,010,92
instrumental boost of ME (x-risk reduction efforts multiplier)
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% x-risk reduction over timeline with ME (absolute)17,14,423,5640,9090,81-4,86
% x-risk reduction over timeline with ME (absolute)
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% x-risk reduction over timeline without ME (absolute)4,83,23,20,90,9-2,4
% x-risk reduction over timeline without ME (absolute)
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% x-risk reduction due to ME (absolute)12,31,220,3640,009-0,09-2,46
% x-risk reduction due to ME (absolute)
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Neglectedness of cognitive enhancement
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Search Term
"cognitive improvement" OR "cognitive enhancement"
"moral enhancement" OR "moral improvement"
"performance enhancement"
"nootropics""neuroenhancement""aging""cancer"
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Metrics:
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public US grants database (grants.gov, Aug 22)
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includes grants of NIH, FDA, NSF, US military
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No. of Grants found00602100197
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Grants relevant (to mind enhancement / aging)4274196
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Grants relevant to mind enhancement excluding US military
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database of registered clinical trials (clinicaltrials.gov, Aug 22)
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No. of registered trials found69172642.42291.430
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Publications"aging" OR "ageing"
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No. of results on PubMed30461322.297322223548.3792.724.283
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EA Sphere:
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LessWrong
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title contains:"cognitive enhancement" "moral enhancement"
"performance enhancement"
"nootropics""neuroenhancement""aging""cancer"
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No. of results when searching lesswrong.com for18621928781.2901.530
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EA Forum
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title contains:"cognitive enhancement" "moral enhancement"
"performance enhancement"
"nootropics""neuroenhancement""aging""cancer"
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No. of results when searching forum.effectivealtruism.org for
116200724400463
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