Napkin Modeling the US Govt "P&L"
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Summary
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Total Taxable Income ($k)7,391,034,237Assumptions
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Total Tax Revenue ($k)1,470,386,301
~ 1 Tax Filing per Household
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# Taxpayers115,500,820
Effective Tax Rate (not Marginal) in Scenario Toggle
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# Housholds125,820,000
Same tax rate for ordinary income and capital gains in Scenario Toggle
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# Non-Taxpaying Households10,319,180
Income Bands Split Out by IRS Data, not Existing Tax Bracket
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# US Residents 19+238,377,500
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# US Citizens 19+221,691,075
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Living Wage (Annualized) $ 31,680
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Taxable Income per Resident 19+ $ 31,006
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Taxable Income - Living Wage / Resident $ (674)
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# Households < $30k41,011,742
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% Households < $30k33%
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Here, for each income band, I just summed: number of taxpayers in band, total modified taxable income for band, and tax generated by band.
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Baseline Collapsed Bands
Collapsed Income from TBL31
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Income BandTaxpayersTaxable IncomeTax RevenueBaseline Tax %
% of Households
% of Taxable Income
% of Tax Revenue
Cumul % of Households
Cumul % Taxable Income
Cumul % Tax Revenue
Modified Taxable Income
Adjusted Gross Income Less Deficit
Avg MTI (pp)Avg AGI (pp)
Band from MTI (pp)
Bottom of Band ($k)
Total Income Taxed in Lower Bands ($k)
Total Marginal Income to Tax in Band ($k)
Tax RevenueUntaxed Income
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Non Tax Paying Households10,319,1800008.20%0.0%0.0%8.20%0.0%0.0%0000000000
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Under $5,000309,969376,75228,8967.7%0.25%0.01%0.00%8.45%0.0%0.0%376,752175,8481,2155671-500376,75228,896347,856
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$5,000 under $10,0001,865,3763,446,615351,01010.2%1.48%0.05%0.02%9.93%0.1%0.0%3,446,61514,697,0811,8487,8791-559,326,880-5,880,265351,0103,095,605
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$10,000 under $15,0005,991,33017,739,8611,749,8619.9%4.76%0.24%0.12%14.69%0.3%0.1%17,739,86175,696,7842,96112,6341-51059,913,300-42,173,4391,749,86115,990,000
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$15,000 under $20,0006,758,27542,612,4214,235,3719.9%5.37%0.58%0.29%20.06%0.9%0.4%42,612,421118,670,9116,30517,5595-1015101,374,125-58,761,7044,235,37138,377,050
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$20,000 under $25,0007,749,40770,457,7047,608,71810.8%6.16%0.95%0.52%26.22%1.8%1.0%70,457,704174,574,0339,09222,5275-1020154,988,140-84,530,4367,608,71862,848,986
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$25,000 under $30,0008,018,20598,621,29011,362,50711.5%6.37%1.33%0.77%32.60%3.2%1.7%98,621,290220,263,91812,30027,47010-1525200,455,125-101,833,83511,362,50787,258,783
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$30,000 under $40,00014,557,918262,903,35631,743,77912.1%11.57%3.56%2.16%44.17%6.7%3.9%262,903,356507,242,42218,05934,84315-2030436,737,540-173,834,18431,743,779231,159,577
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$40,000 under $50,00011,502,649302,798,94738,014,82812.6%9.14%4.10%2.59%53.31%10.8%6.5%302,798,947515,148,55826,32444,78520-3040460,105,960-157,307,01338,014,828264,784,119
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$50,000 under $75,00020,093,459807,563,184113,520,46014.1%15.97%10.93%7.72%69.28%21.7%14.2%807,563,1841,233,953,57740,19061,41130-50501,004,672,950-197,109,766113,520,460694,042,724
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$75,000 under $100,00012,945,526791,385,823118,109,53214.9%10.29%10.71%8.03%79.57%32.4%22.2%791,385,8231,123,228,92061,13286,76650-10075970,914,450-179,528,627118,109,532673,276,291
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$100,000 under $200,00018,819,9761,929,256,106332,971,22317.3%14.96%26.10%22.65%94.52%58.5%44.9%1,929,256,1062,547,496,665102,511135,361100-2001001,881,997,60047,258,506332,971,2231,596,284,883
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$200,000 under $500,0005,573,4211,311,160,301293,816,78222.4%4.43%17.74%19.98%98.95%76.3%64.8%1,311,160,3011,585,778,335235,252284,525200-5002001,114,684,200196,476,101293,816,7821,017,343,519
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$500,000 under $1,000,000891,887532,009,258150,504,80628.3%0.71%7.20%10.24%99.66%83.5%75.1%532,009,258598,580,395596,499671,139500-1000500445,943,50086,065,758150,504,806381,504,452
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$1,000,000 under $1,500,000192,432207,852,68264,767,27231.2%0.15%2.81%4.40%99.82%86.3%79.5%207,852,682232,058,7571,080,1361,205,9261000-15001,000192,432,00015,420,68264,767,272143,085,410
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$1,500,000 under $2,000,00077,630120,008,39738,373,56732.0%0.06%1.62%2.61%99.88%87.9%82.1%120,008,397133,369,4381,545,9021,718,0141500-20001,500116,445,0003,563,39738,373,56781,634,830
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$2,000,000 under $5,000,000110,753296,829,00795,363,72132.1%0.09%4.02%6.49%99.97%91.9%88.6%296,829,007328,889,0302,680,0992,969,5722000-50002,000221,506,00075,323,00795,363,721201,465,286
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$5,000,000 under $10,000,00026,564163,967,08251,236,11831.2%0.02%2.22%3.48%99.99%94.2%92.1%163,967,082181,240,5096,172,5306,822,7875000-60005,000132,820,00031,147,08251,236,118112,730,964
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$10,000,000 or more16,043432,045,451116,627,85027.0%0.01%5.85%7.93%100.00%100.0%100.0%432,045,451480,073,38026,930,46529,924,16510000+10,000160,430,000271,615,451116,627,850315,417,601
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Totals115,500,8207,391,034,2371,470,386,301
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Other Scenarios
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Chart Driving Scenario
Make your own by editing the effective tax rates in the blue cells..
First $Xk Tax Free
First $Xk Tax Free
First $Xk Tax Free
First $Xk Tax Free
First $Xk Tax Free
First $Xk Tax Free
First $Xk Tax Free
First $Xk Tax Free
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30030300000
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Income Band% Households
Share of Taxable Income
Baseline Eff. Tax Rate
Toggle Eff. Tax Rate
Tax Revenue ($k)
% Tax Revenue (First $30k tax free, up to 70% for high earners)
Top % of Taxpayers
Top % Tax Rev
% Tax Rev (Baseline)
Baseline Top % Tax Rev
Cumul % Tax Revenue (Baseline)
Cumul % Tax Revenue (First $30k tax free, up to 70% for high earners)
Toggle Eff. Tax Rate
Toggle Eff. Tax Rate
Toggle Eff. Tax Rate
Toggle Eff. Tax Rate
Toggle Eff. Tax Rate
Toggle Eff. Tax Rate
Toggle Eff. Tax Rate
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Non Tax Paying Households8.20%0.0%0.0%0% $ - 0.00%100.00%100.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.00%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
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Under $5,0000.25%0.0%7.7%0% $ - 0.00%91.80%100.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.00%8%0%0%8%8%8%8%
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$5,000 under $10,0001.48%0.0%10.2%0% $ - 0.00%91.55%100.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%0.00%10%0%0%10%10%10%10%
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$10,000 under $15,0004.76%0.2%9.9%0% $ - 0.00%90.07%100.0%0.1%100.0%0.1%0.00%10%0%0%10%10%10%10%
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$15,000 under $20,0005.37%0.6%9.9%0% $ - 0.00%85.31%100.0%0.3%99.9%0.4%0.00%10%0%0%10%10%10%10%
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$20,000 under $25,0006.16%1.0%10.8%0% $ - 0.00%79.94%100.0%0.5%99.6%1.0%0.00%11%0%0%11%11%11%11%
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$25,000 under $30,0006.37%1.3%11.5%0% $ - 0.00%73.78%100.0%0.8%99.0%1.7%0.00%12%0%0%12%12%12%12%
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$30,000 under $40,00011.57%3.6%12.1%0% $ - 0.00%67.40%100.0%2.2%98.3%3.9%0.00%12%0%0%12%12%12%12%
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$40,000 under $50,0009.14%4.1%12.6%13% $ - 0.00%55.83%100.0%2.6%96.1%6.5%0.00%13%13%13%13%13%13%13%
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$50,000 under $75,00015.97%10.9%14.1%14% $ 28,783,361 1.55%46.69%100.0%7.7%93.5%14.2%1.55%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%
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$75,000 under $100,00010.29%10.7%14.9%15% $ 60,148,296 3.25%30.72%98.4%8.0%85.8%22.2%4.80%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%
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$100,000 under $200,00014.96%26.1%17.3%25% $ 341,164,207 18.41%20.43%95.2%22.6%77.8%44.9%23.21%17%17%25%17%17%17%17%
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$200,000 under $500,0004.43%17.7%22.4%35% $ 400,385,185 21.61%5.48%76.8%20.0%55.1%64.8%44.82%22%22%35%50%22%22%22%
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$500,000 under $1,000,0000.71%7.2%28.3%35% $ 176,838,427 9.54%1.05%55.2%10.2%35.2%75.1%54.36%28%28%35%50%28%28%28%
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$1,000,000 under $1,500,0000.15%2.8%31.2%70% $ 141,455,805 7.63%0.34%45.6%4.4%24.9%79.5%62.00%31%31%70%70%31%31%31%
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$1,500,000 under $2,000,0000.06%1.6%32.0%70% $ 82,375,648 4.45%0.18%38.0%2.6%20.5%82.1%66.44%32%32%70%70%32%32%32%
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$2,000,000 under $5,000,0000.09%4.0%32.1%70% $ 205,454,492 11.09%0.12%33.6%6.5%17.9%88.6%77.53%32%32%70%70%32%32%32%
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$5,000,000 under $10,000,0000.02%2.2%31.2%70% $ 114,219,113 6.16%0.03%22.5%3.5%11.4%92.1%83.70%31%31%70%70%31%31%31%
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$10,000,000 or more0.01%5.8%27.0%70% $ 302,094,913 16.30%0.01%16.3%7.9%7.9%100.0%100.00%70%27%70%70%27%27%27%
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(ak)(ak)
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First $30k tax free, up to 70% for high earners
@AOC plan
First $30k tax free
First $30k tax free, up to 70% for high earners
50-70% for $200k+
Blank / BaseBlank / BaseBlank / Base
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Baseline
First $30k tax free, up to 70% for high earners
Baseline
First $30k tax free, up to 70% for high earners
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Total Tax Revenue ($k)1,470,386,3011,852,919,447Income Band
% Households
Eff. Tax Rate
% Tax Revenue
$ Tax Revenue
Eff. Tax Rate
% Tax Revenue
$ Tax Revenue
$k Increase vs Baseline
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Increase vs Base ($k)-382,533,146
Non Tax Paying Households
8.20%0%0.0%0%0.0% $ -
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% Increase vs Base-26%Under $5,0000.25%8%0.0%0%0.0% $ (28,896)
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$5,000 under $10,0001.48%10%0.0%0%0.0% $ (351,010)
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% Tax Rev from Earners <$100k (bottom 80%)
22%5%$10,000 under $15,0004.76%10%0.1%0%0.0% $ (1,749,861)
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% Tax Rev from Earners >$200k (top 5.48%)
55%77%$15,000 under $20,0005.37%10%0.3%0%0.0% $ (4,235,371)
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% Tax Rev from Earners >$1m (top 0.34%)
25%46%$20,000 under $25,0006.16%11%0.5%0%0.0% $ (7,608,718)
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% Tax Rev from Earners >$2m (top 0.12%)
21%34%$25,000 under $30,0006.37%12%0.8%0%0.0% $ (11,362,507)
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$30,000 under $40,00011.57%12%2.2%0%0.0% $ (31,743,779)
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What could this money buy?$40,000 under $50,0009.14%13%2.6%13%0.0% $ (38,014,828)
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As redistribution to...$50,000 under $75,00015.97%14%7.7%14%1.6% $ (84,737,099)
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$ / Citizen 19+ $ 1,726 $75,000 under $100,00010.29%15%8.0%15%3.2% $ (57,961,236)
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$ / Household < $30k $ 9,327 $100,000 under $200,00014.96%17%22.6%25%18.4% $ 8,192,984
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$200,000 under $500,0004.43%22%20.0%35%21.6% $ 106,568,403
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As portion of...
$ billion, 2016 deficit
$500,000 under $1,000,000
0.71%28%10.2%35%9.5% $ 26,333,621
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Federal Deficit5260.7x
$1,000,000 under $1,500,000
0.15%31%4.4%70%7.6% $ 76,688,533
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$1,500,000 under $2,000,000
0.06%32%2.6%70%4.4% $ 44,002,081
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As portion of other fed budgets...
$ billion spent, 2016
$2,000,000 under $5,000,000
0.09%32%6.5%70%11.1% $ 110,090,771
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Healthcare (all)1,2030.3x
$5,000,000 under $10,000,000
0.02%31%3.5%70%6.2% $ 62,982,995
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Social Security9190.4x$10,000,000 or more0.01%27%7.9%70%16.3% $ 185,467,063
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Defense9160.4x
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Education (pre primary - secondary)3810.1x
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