A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | |
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1 | Start Year | 1972 | most start in 1972, US equities (large/mid/small & blend/value) start in 1927, overall US and bonds back to 1900 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | End Year | 2017 | Final year to include in analysis, returns will go to the end of this year | Real | ||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Inflation? | Nominal | Real returns is after inflation, nominal includes the returns generated from inflation (less net gain to the investor though) | Nominal | ||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Tax % | 100% for full taxes in top tax bracket, 0 for a tax advantaged account (like 401k or IRA) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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6 | Returns can either be presented as nominal (with inflation) or real (after inflation) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | A tax cost can also be applied to funds (based upon the Morningstar tax cost ratio) if you are designing a taxable account | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | All returns assume annual rebalancing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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10 | The portfolios tab allows you to edit your portfolio and try and design your own. We created several portfolios using MATLAB to "engineer" the best return for a given level of risk (used Vanguard target date funds as the benchmark for risk). This tab also includes the portfolios of several robo-investors, Vanguard, and known "lazy portfolios" of investment experts. You'll see that the engineered portfolios always exceed or match these other portfolios for virtually every 10+ year period. Use these as a base and tweak as you see fit to meet your needs and expectations! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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13 | Shaded cells indicate formulas, unfilled represent where inputs are needed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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15 | Big thanks to the bogleheads group | for compiling most of this data | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ | also contributed some (and uses boglehead data) and is a great resource | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | Fidelity's sector performance data | led us to look into sectors and overweight health care and consumer staples for their superior risk adjusted returns | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook | led us to look into individual countries after their superior returns over such a long time period | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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20 | Asset Class Name | Tax Source | Source 1 | Source 2 | Source 3 | Source 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||
21 | Total US | VTSMX | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) - 1993+ | CRSP Market Decile 1-10 1972-1992 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
22 | US Large | VFINX | Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX) - 1977+ | S&P 500: Standard & Poors 1972-1976 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
23 | USL Value | VIVAX | Vanguard Value Index Fund (VIVAX) - 1993+ | Russell 1000 Value Index 1979-1992 | Stock Index Calculator (Tyler) 1972-1978 | |||||||||||||||||||||
24 | US Mid | VIMSX | Vanguard Mid Cap Index Fund (VIMSX) - 1999+ | Russell Mid Cap Index 1979-1998 | Stock Index Calculator (Tyler) 1972-1978 | |||||||||||||||||||||
25 | USM Value | VMVIX | Vanguard Mid Cap Index Value Fund (VMVIX) - 2007+ | MSCI Mid Cap Value Index 1996-2006 | Russell Mid Cap Value Index 1986-1995 | Stock Index Calculator (Tyler) 1972-1985 | ||||||||||||||||||||
26 | US Small | NAESX | Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund (NAESX) - 1992+ | Russell 2000 Index 1979-1991 | Stock Index Calculator (Tyler) 1972-1978 | |||||||||||||||||||||
27 | USS Value | VISVX | Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund (VISVX) - 1999+ | Russell 2000 Value Index 1979-1998 | Stock Index Calculator (Tyler) 1972-1978 | |||||||||||||||||||||
28 | US Select Dividend | VDAIX | Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) 2007+ | iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) 2004-2006 | US Large Value 1972-2003 | |||||||||||||||||||||
29 | US REIT | VGSIX | Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VGSIX) - 1997+ | Nat. Assn. of Real Estate Inv Trusts 1972-1996 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | US Consumer Staples | VCSAX | Vanguard Consumer Staples (VCSAX) 2004+ | http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmanannual-sector-returns-vs-sp-500-2013-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | US Health Care | VHT | Vanguard Health Care Index ETF (VHT) 2005+ | http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmanannual-sector-returns-vs-sp-500-2013-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | US Energy | VDE | Vanguard Energy (VGENX) - 1985+ | http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmanannual-sector-returns-vs-sp-500-2013-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | Total International | VGTSX | Vanguard Total International Index Fund (VGTSX) - 1997+ | 85% EAFE Index, 15% EM | MSCI EAFE Index 1972-1987 (Developed Only) | |||||||||||||||||||||
34 | Int'l Large | VTMGX | Vanguard Developed Mkts (VTMGX) - 2000+ | MSCI EAFE Index 1972-2000 (Developed Only) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | Int'l Value | VTRIX | Vanguard Intl Value (VTRIX) 1997+ | MSCI EAFE Value 1975-1996 | IFA website (IFA IV, added back expenses): 1972-1974 | |||||||||||||||||||||
36 | Int'l Small | VFSVX | FTSE All-World ex-US Small Cap Idx (VFSVX) 2010+ | VG Intl Explorer - 1997 - 2009 | IFA website (IFA IS, added back expenses): 1972-1996 | |||||||||||||||||||||
37 | Emerging Markets | VEIEX | Vanguard Emerging Mkts Idx (VEIEX) - 1995+ | MSCI Emerging Mkts Index 1988-1994 | (IFA allocated 50% IFA Intl Value Index and 50% IFA Intl Small) | IFA website (IFA EM, added back expenses): 1972-1987 | ||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Emerging Small Cap | EWX | SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF (EWX) 2009+ | MSCI Emerging Small Cap Index - 0.65% Expense 2002-2008 | Emerging Markets 1972-2001 | |||||||||||||||||||||
39 | Fronteir Markets | FM | iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (FM) 2013+ | Guggenheim Frontier Markets ETF (FRN) 2009-2012 | Emerging Markets 1972-2008 | |||||||||||||||||||||
40 | Global REIT | VNQI | Vanguard Global ex-US REIT ETF (VNQI) 2011+ | iShares International Dev Rel Est (IFGL) 2008-2010 | 75% US REIT / 25% Total Int'l Stock 1972-2007 | |||||||||||||||||||||
41 | Sweden | EWD | iShares MSCI Sweden 1997+ | Data from Edvinsson, Jacobson, and Waldenstrom minus 0.48 expenses | http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Forskning/%C3%96vrigt/2014/foa_historical_statistics_%20volume2_140613.pdf | |||||||||||||||||||||
42 | Australia | EWA | iShares MSCI Australia 1997+ | Data from Brailsford, Handley and Maheswaran minus 0.48 expenses | http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1594&context=business_pubs | |||||||||||||||||||||
43 | South Africa | EZA | iShares MSCI South Africa 2004+ | Data from Allan Gray minus 0.63 expenses | http://topforeignstocks.com/2014/01/08/south-africas-ftsejse-all-share-index-returns-by-year/ | |||||||||||||||||||||
44 | Gold | GLD | GLD ETF 2005+ (Morningstar) | Kitco returns 1972-2004 | http://onlygold.com/Info/Historical-Gold-Prices.asp | http://www.finfacts.ie/Private/curency/goldmarketprice.htm | ||||||||||||||||||||
45 | Commodities | PCRIX | Pimco PCRIX 2003+ | DJ-AIJ plus VIPSX - 2001-2002 | DJ-AIG plus Yahoo's IPS 'category' returns 1997-2001 (prior to VIPSX) | DJ-AIJ plus T-Bills 1991-1996 | Collaterallized Chase Index 1972-1990 | |||||||||||||||||||
46 | Emerging Market Bonds | EMB | iShares JPMorgan USD Emerg Markets Bond (EMB) 2008+ | JPM EMBI+ minus 0.4 expenses 1994-2007 (https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Emerging_market_bonds) | 90% Total Int'l Bond / 10% Emerging Market 1972-2007 | |||||||||||||||||||||
47 | International Bonds | PIGLX | Pimco Global Bond PIGLX Instl - 1997+ | JP Morgan Global Gov Bond - 1987-1996 | 90% US Total Bond / 10% Total Int'l Stock 1972-1986 | |||||||||||||||||||||
48 | Corporate Bonds | VICSX | Vanguard Intermediate Corporate Bond Fund (VICSX) 2011-2015 | Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond Index (seeĀ barcap.com) 1973-2010 | US Total Bond 1972 | |||||||||||||||||||||
49 | US Bonds | VBMFX | Vanguard Total Bond Index Fund (VBMFX) - 1987+ | Lehman Brothers 1973-1986 | Ibbotson 1972 | |||||||||||||||||||||
50 | TIPS | Vanguard Inflation-Protected Security Fund (VIPSX) 2001+ | http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v60.n1.2592 | http://www.diehards.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=281 | Synthetic TIPS data provided by Cb (Data from Kothari's paper) | |||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Intermediate Municipal | VWITX | Vanguard Interm-Term Tx-Ex Inv (VWITX) 1978+ | US Total Bond 1972-1977 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | Short Term Total US Bond | VFSTX | Vanguard ST Investment Grade (VFSTX) 1983+ | 75% Short Term Treasury / 25% Corporate Bond 1972-1981 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | Short Term Treasury | VFISX | Vanguard Short Term Treasury (VFISX) 1992+ | Longinvest's bonds fund spreadsheet (4-2 model) 1972-1991 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Treasury Bills | VUSXX | Vanguard Admiral Treasury (VUSXX) 2009+ | Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VMPXX) 1984-2008 | T-Bills 1972-1983 | |||||||||||||||||||||
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56 | Credit to Trevh/Cb/Alec/Siamond from Vanguard Diehards / Bogleheads forum for compiling this data from various sources. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | http://www.bogleheads.org | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | For comments/feedback/updates visit: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2753812#p2753812 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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60 | Annual Return Data Sources: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/vanguard-mutual-funds-list | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search | (pick a recent date for DM or EM, search, then click on appropriate MCSI broad index, tune chart display, download Excel spreadsheet) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2006_Issues/jfp2006-art7.cfm | (no longer available) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | IFA historical data was derived from various indexes, see descriptions and calculator: | http://www.ifa.com/library/support/data/IFAindexdata.asp | https://www.ifa.com/calculator | |||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | CPI-U data was collected from http://www.bls.gov/cpi and the actual data was obtained from: | ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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67 | Credit to Cb/Gnobility/Jeff for calculating the synthetic returns of CCF data (XLS lost) | http://gnobility.com/Syn_Comm/CCF_1972-2007_san.xls | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=144355 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | Credit to Stratton for the Global Bond Funds Data | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | Credit to CraigR for the Permanent Portfolio information and the Gold returns | http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2008/12/22/permanent-portfolio-historical-returns/#more-299 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | Credit to Longinvest for the synthetic historical bond returns (pre-1972 and more) | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=179425 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
71 | Credit to Tyler9000 for the CRSP-like synthetic series for 3x3 factors | https://portfoliocharts.com/stock-index-calculator/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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73 | Historical Returns (pre-1972): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
74 | ======================== | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | S&P500(h): courtesy of Pr Shiller - no Expense Ratio applied | http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
76 | IT Bonds(h): simulated bond fund 10-4, derived from interest rates (Shiller and FRED) - no ER | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=179425 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | TBills(h): simulated returns based on 1-yr interest rates (Shiller and FRED) - no ER | http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/chapt26.xls | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | Stock Index Calculator (Tyler): LCV, LCG, MCB, MCV, MCG, SCB, SCV, SCG (note: LCB == S&P 500) | https://portfoliocharts.com/stock-index-calculator/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
79 | LT Bonds: simulated bond fund 30-11, derived from interest rates (Shiller and FRED) | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=179425 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | IT Bonds: simulated bond fund 10-4, derived from interest rates (Shiller and FRED) | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=179425 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
81 | ST Bonds: simulated bond fund 4-2, derived from interest rates (Shiller and FRED) | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=179425 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
82 | Following is the list of the Abbreviations and a summary of the data sources by year range. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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